No Brexit eventually?!

premierfella

The only real story here is egg on the face of the PM.

Yes, in theory parliament could throw a few spanners in the works, but given that there are only a very modest minority of MPs who would happily ignore the result of the referendum and vote as such, this really isn't likely.

If the court decision stands on appeal, what it really means is just
1. the government being a little more candid about what "Brexit" it wants
2. the opposition parties not being completely cut out of things (thus giving them plenty of opportunities to play politics and get a few punches in on the government and generally - from the Conservative point of view - make a nuisance of themselves.

PM May has form for being quite closed and guarded, so it is no surprise that her preference was to try and keep everything "in house".

As for UKIP conspiracy theories, there is little substance to them. Article 50 will still be actioned in due course (at a slightly less politically convenient time for PM May) and the UK will still Brexit.

bigadaj

If and when it goes to a parliamentary vote then an interesting decision for many MPs, particularly those in firm leave areas.

It would be odd for parliament to overturn a referendum decision and somewhat illogical, Im sure the lawyers will make plenty of money out of it either way.

Marktheshark

Farage appears to have been bought off, they could have quite easily taken the next general election, 52% is some majority in a parliamentary election.

It is the only way the leave vote will be implemented, a change of government.

Superscrooge

I suspect politicians will still be arguing the pros and cons of Brexit when the sun goes supernova!

enthusiasticsaver

Marktheshark wrote: »

Farage appears to have been bought off, they could have quite easily taken the next general election, 52% is some majority in a parliamentary election.

It is the only way the leave vote will be implemented, a change of government.

I don't think you will necessarily find that those who voted to leave would vote UKIP. There are a fair number of conservative and labour voters who voted to leave.

Similarly there are normally conservative voters like me and my family who will vote Lib Dem to stay in the EU if a GE was called soon. Interesting times indeed.

Ed-1

All the High Court ruling means if the Supreme Court upholds the judgment is the Prime Minister can't trigger Article 50 without Parliament's approval.

The Government, it appears, has taken this to mean legislation is needed before (rather than after) Article 50 is triggered to repeal the European Communities Act of 1972.

Theresa May has already said that they would bring forward a Great Repeal Bill in the next session of Parliament (i.e. sometime from June 2017 to June 2018) but thought she could use her Royal Prerogative to trigger Article 50 and get the negotiations underway.

Now, as it stands, Parliament even need to approve the triggering of Article 50 as the Referendum Bill that paved the way for the referendum never specified what would happen in the event of a leave vote and so Parliament has still not approved the triggering of Article 50, which it needs to do for Brexit to get underway.

If the Referendum Bill in 2015 had stipulated "in the event of a vote to leave the EU, Article 50 will be triggered by the Government" then Parliament would have already given their approval to go ahead (i.e. the referendum would have been mandatory). As nothing was in that legislation about what happens next, the referendum was only advisory and further legislation is needed (or at least a vote) to pave the way for the Government to trigger Article 50.

Note that the Government may choose to do this separately to the Great Repeal Bill which discusses the terms of the negotiations and repeals the European Communities Act, transferring all EU legislation into British law.

For example, an Article 50 Bill with one line saying "Government will trigger Article 50 after this Bill comes into force" could be introduced to Parliament, and it would then be voted on by the House of Commons and House of Lords in the usual way, with nothing about the terms of the negotiations. Any MP that voted against this Bill would by voting against the will of the British people expressed in the referendum.

You could imagine the amount of amendments that might be tabled to that one clause! e.g. "(1) Government will trigger Article 50 after this Bill comes into force subject to the following paragraphs"
Insert: (2) Government will publish a White Paper outlining its negotiating position;
(3) The UK will not leave the European Single Market;
(4) The UK will not leave the European Customs Union;
(5) Government will not trigger Article 50 until after the German and French domestic elections etc. etc.

Government would have to fight off any attempt to add caveats such as these to the Bill before it could be passed.

redux

jumperabv3 wrote: »

Now looks like Brexit has been ruled out by the high court in the UK - some people call it the "death of democracy" - what's going to happen now?!

It hasn't, as per previous replies above.

As I said on a thread in the Discussion Time board here (which would be a more appropriate place for this thread), what has happened is more like:

redux wrote: »

Ha ha.

We insist on the sovereignty of the UK Parliament, said some of the Leave campaigners.

We insist on the sovereignty of the UK Parliament, said the court.

They haven't ruled out Brexit; they have merely defined a part of the process.

joncombe

jonesMUFCforever wrote: »

Brexit has not been ruled out - just that parliament will have to agree to the terms before it is agreed.

The problem is I don't think Parliament can vote on the terms. The EU have made it clear they won't negotiate until we trigger article 50. Once we trigger article 50, we leave the EU. So we either leave on unknown terms or we remain. As far as I see it, those are the only options.

So the vote in parliament will I expect come down to either:-

1. Vote to accept the result of the referundum and trigger article 50 - but we won't know what the terms of Brexit will be and will be bound to accept them regardless.
2. Vote to ignore the result of the referendum and remain in the EU.

eset12345

jumperabv3 wrote: »

I read an article in the Telegraph about it and in the Daily Mail ...

Practically speaking - the UK was under pressure until now because of fear of exodus of businesses from the UK - now the fear has slightly been alleviated because of this court ruling (which explains slight bounce in the pound).

Basically the articles explain how the parliament and the MPs can drag this on forever, it could take even more time than people think and eventually it could just be forgotten or thrown away through some political vehicle (2nd referendum, more court rulings etc.)

Many people however do comment in those articles that that is "death of democracy" and they do feel like they've been betrayed ..

It's correct that the Brexit wasn't ruled out but now that it's in the hands of the parliament it could take years or even many not happen in the end as the articles claim ... or at best it would happen with slight modifications to the current UK membership in the EU....

Anyway bottom line is many brexiters are upset with this court ruling, quite extremely upset.

that's simply not going to happen, we won't get anywhere near the next general election without lodging article 50.

this rulimg may add 6 month to a year on top of the time frame, but it's still going ahead.

anybody that is deluded enough to think out MPs and the lords can go against the majority of the country should be placed in to broadmoor

Kim_13

Sleazy wrote: »

If only David Cameron had got on a plane to Brussels within a day or two of a leave vote as he had promised ....

If only David Cameron had made the result of the referendum legally binding in the bill that was passed to hold it, as he did with the referendum on the voting system.

Would also have stopped all the 'There should be another vote' stuff from whichever side lost.