Is it too late to sell a house in Northern Ireland???

IvanOpinion

Colin_Kee wrote: »

House prices are officially falling, and like lead balloons in some areas. Some prices in the craigavon area are dropping by £20,000 + even estate Agents are advertising this in their adds in Newspapers. Obviously trying to get people buying again.

The news yesterday is that interest could driop 0.75% net year (although 0.5% is more likely and other global factors could also afect this in either direction). The news from this morning is that, according to one report, house prices in NI grew last quarter by 3.4% (which is significantly down on previous 10%+ figures). The falls seen are apparently at the lower FTB end of the market were he stock was most over priced .. at the upper end apparently house prcies are still increasing (allegedly) .. albeit much more slowly.

THE BUBBLE HAS BURST!!:T :T :T :T

Not so much burst as having been deflated .. the quesiton is how far.

The more I thought aboout it the more I was hoping for a large burst so that I could pick up a couple of BTLs on the cheap. Sadly for that I needed to hope that interest rates would go up again and that there would be more repossessions coming avilable which could be picked up for as little as 75% of asked value (since the banks/building societies will claim the rest from the MIP).

Up or down, I don;t really care, I just wish it would make its flamin mind up

Ivan

leftieM

It's been pointed out to me that the end of the boom here in April/ May coincided with the beginning of the price falls in Ireland. I know that in the south they had a period of uncertainty when a minister implied that stamp duty rates might be cut in the April budget so a lot of buyers held off (where we pay 1%, they could pay 7%+, so it's a serious amount of money). The rates were held but the market didn't pick up again and started to fall considerably - the investors had moved on. Given the heavy investor activity here it had an immediate effect on our local market.

motorguy

Colin_Kee wrote: »

House prices are officially falling, and like lead balloons in some areas. Some prices in the craigavon area are dropping by £20,000 + even estate Agents are advertising this in their adds in Newspapers. Obviously trying to get people buying again.

The house down the road from me has just had its price dropped by £20000 and still no interest.

motorguy

leftieM wrote: »

Yup, Talksalot and his HPC pals were right all along.
Have new figures been published? It's all rather scary. Some people made a lot of money but more have been left with massive debt and depreciating assets that won't cover it. Bankruptcy must loom for some. I know of several people who bought earlier this year and really shouldn't have because they couldn't afford to lose. They didn't even consider the repercussions. I hope they'll be alright.

Does that mean if i start predicting an upturn in the market, when it does go up again in a couple of years time i will have been right all along?

With regards to those 'investors' who only started buying earlier this year, its the old adage 'only invest what you can afford to lose'. I find it hard to have sympathy for someone making a huge financial investment at that level, without considering the risks.

motorguy

leftieM wrote: »

It's been pointed out to me that the end of the boom here in April/ May coincided with the beginning of the price falls in Ireland. I know that in the south they had a period of uncertainty when a minister implied that stamp duty rates might be cut in the April budget so a lot of buyers held off (where we pay 1%, they could pay 7%+, so it's a serious amount of money). The rates were held but the market didn't pick up again and started to fall considerably - the investors had moved on. Given the heavy investor activity here it had an immediate effect on our local market.

I dont think that was a primary reason why. It may have been part of it, but any investors i know were either selling in the early part of this year, or digging in for a long wait.

Prices just went too far. First time buyers couldnt afford to buy at those prices, people couldnt afford to buy them to rent out, too many houses on the market, too many houses being built, dip in buyer confidence, now we're all having a cold shower...

leftieM

pgilc1 wrote: »

I dont think that was a primary reason why. It may have been part of it, but any investors i know were either selling in the early part of this year, or digging in for a long wait.

Prices just went too far. First time buyers couldnt afford to buy at those prices, people couldnt afford to buy them to rent out, too many houses on the market, too many houses being built, dip in buyer confidence, now we're all having a cold shower...

What fascinates me is that the end was so sudden. Our local estate agent said that they came back after Easter and the phones weren't ringing. He said it was wierd.
I notice that asking prices are sticky. I've seen a couple of neighbours drop their asking prices by 20k but the houses are still really expensive and not getting offers. I think you can still sell a house but you have to accept that you'll get tens of thousands less than your neighbour got. I saw a 3 bed semi sell for about 430k near me earlier in the year. Similar houses are now going for a max of 360k (if they are really nice).
Developers are obviously shelving plans too. Anyone who drives down Balmoral Avenue may have noticed two semis for sale as a development site a few months ago. They are back up for sale as a development site. Similarly on Finaghy Road South there are three houses in a row for rent with the same agent. Looks very like a developer who isn't going to bother developing.
Perhaps the fall in Irish house prices is just coincidence but I doubt it. I don't think it's the primary factor but it will have a major impact.

leftieM

Does that mean if i start predicting an upturn in the market, when it does go up again in a couple of years time i will have been right all along?

Lol - yes! Come back and gloat.

With regards to those 'investors' who only started buying earlier this year, its the old adage 'only invest what you can afford to lose'. I find it hard to have sympathy for someone making a huge financial investment at that level, without considering the risks.

Someone I'm very fond off has made this mistake and I really feel for him. He will have to carry two BTLs for an indeterminate time, subsidising them to the tune of £700 a month, until they are worth what he paid for them. He just refused to consider the 'what ifs' although I felt it was my duty to bring these to his attention. He was seduced by the potential gains.

IvanOpinion

That is the big problem. We are just back in from a tour of local show houses .. generally at the bottom end of the market. The prices on some of them have definitely been dropped. The ones behind Bloomfields look like they are down about £20,000 (although I am not sure of their original price ... 2-bed apartment for about £190K). Again though talking to the estate agents the big adjustments are at the FTB end of the market.

I am so tempted .. so very very tempted but I don't want to do anything this year.

Ivan

motorguy

I'm from waringstown, just outside lurgan,and all the sites round here have pretty much come to a standstill. Others just havent opened up. I guess the builders are digging in (no pun intended) for a long wait.

baldeagle09

House prices in Belfast have been falling too. New build on Upper Newtownards Road are down from £495k to £470k within a month. I know of people who have been made redundant from estate agents. This downturn has been happening since the spring. What I cant understand is why the 'official' figures as represented by the University of Ulster statistics for the 3rd quarter of 2007 indicate a rise of 3.6% on the previous quarter.
Sometimes I wonder about the independence of such statistics, when clearly what is happening on the ground is different