Is it too late to sell a house in Northern Ireland???

fredy34

IvanOpinion wrote: »

Can I assume then that you have just made millions out of the current situation? If I had any faith in the abundance of "predictions"/guesses I have heard I would be sunning myself on a yacht in the Caribbean now

Ivan

Thankfully when he was predicting the massive fall in house prices i ignored the advice and made over 100k on a house in 12 months!
:money:

Sigur_2

Everyone knows forecasting is fraught with inaccuracy.

As a professional data analyst one should recognise this, you only need to read the thoughts of many economists and see their views on how things will pan out are widely different. Even how they view simple statistics varies widely, i.e. look at the debate over the American economy currently.

motorguy

fredy34 wrote: »

Thankfully when he was predicting the massive fall in house prices i ignored the advice and made over 100k on a house in 12 months!
:money:

Similar for me, my house went up a further 50K since when talksalot starting saying the bubble was going to burst. I (purely by luck) managed to get out at the 'peak' last april / may time.

talksalot81

I have not made millions, my first interest in the housing market was when it was already significantly over priced. I am afraid everybody must be young sometime.

I started predicting bad things in about november 06. The actual peak turned out to be some 6 months later. If you managed to make an extra 100k in those 5/6 months, good for you but most would tell you that you were pushing your luck a bit! A couple of months later and you could well have found yourself in difficulty. You increased your risk and increased the potential reward. It worked. It will not always and for many people it has not. I bet you that there are dozens of people who waited too long and now cannot sell for every one who got out just before the peak. Then there are the professionals who got out at the end of summer 06 and had their properties snapped up way over asking by those who still have them and can't shift them!

If you guys wish to believe that everything is down to 'guessing', so be it! I shall stick with the scientific method thanks.

Oh and economists... they are bloody good at complicated trends, but even better at ignoring the fundamental ones!

IvanOpinion

talksalot81 wrote: »

If you guys wish to believe that everything is down to 'guessing', so be it! I shall stick with the scientific method thanks.

Come on nw, you are starting to push credibility here. If there was anything close to a 'scientific method' then I would be pretty sure that all the big institutions would be using them .. what is available are predictive models that, based on a set of rules, show what might happen when given a particular set of parameters (which may or may not come true) ... the one thing I will predict is that such models will never handle the unexpected (no surprise there) ... and all major changes in the markets have been driven by 'unexpected' events recently.

You may only have started in Nov 2006 but the 'cry wolf' predictions have been running since about 2002 (possibly even before) ... anybody who listened to them back then lost out big time (and I know several who have) .. and as we got more and more 'cry wolfs' people just stopped listening. But it was obvious that eventually, given enough time, it would come true (no crystal ball needed there).

I am willing to accept that you maybe got lucky or maybe that is when you took an interest in the market and immediately nailed your 50:50 choice to the word 'down' .. but that is all. If anybody could predict what is going to happen with any degree of accuracy or dependability then they would be the most sought after person by investment companies. As all the big investment houses keep telling us THERE ARE NO CRYSTAL BALLS, INVESTMENTS MAY GO UP OR DOWN ... that is the only guarantee ... everything else is pure guesswork even by the most experienced professional.

Ivan

talksalot81

IvanOpinion wrote: »

Come on nw, you are starting to push credibility here. If there was anything close to a 'scientific method' then I would be pretty sure that all the big institutions would be using them .. what is available are predictive models that, based on a set of rules, show what might happen when given a particular set of parameters (which may or may not come true) ... the one thing I will predict is that such models will never handle the unexpected (no surprise there) ... and all major changes in the markets have been driven by 'unexpected' events recently.

You may only have started in Nov 2006 but the 'cry wolf' predictions have been running since about 2002 (possibly even before) ... anybody who listened to them back then lost out big time (and I know several who have) .. and as we got more and more 'cry wolfs' people just stopped listening. But it was obvious that eventually, given enough time, it would come true (no crystal ball needed there).

I am willing to accept that you maybe got lucky or maybe that is when you took an interest in the market and immediately nailed your 50:50 choice to the word 'down' .. but that is all. If anybody could predict what is going to happen with any degree of accuracy or dependability then they would be the most sought after person by investment companies. As all the big investment houses keep telling us THERE ARE NO CRYSTAL BALLS, INVESTMENTS MAY GO UP OR DOWN ... that is the only guarantee ... everything else is pure guesswork even by the most experienced professional.

Ivan

Scientific method: 1) Identify the key parameters 2) Identify the parameters which are mistaken as key 3)Consider the parameters in the context of the situation.

Simple. When I started looking at the market, the key parameter was afforadability. I could not afford. My friends could not afford. Very few FTBs could afford (and taking a 10x multiple is selling you life to the bank, NOT affording). Salaries throughout the province were and are low and inspite of my experience being of a higher earning region of this, we were unable to afford. Arguements of demand, economic upturn etc were all nonsense 'parameters', if the houses were beyond affordable for young people, then that was the end of it. A year before I started into this I did not even think twice about further reading because I could easily have afforded a relatively pleasant property (at asking price).

I am not saying that I had a crystal ball, I am saying that the risk of an imminent change in the market was very high nearing Xmas 06. There was no guarantee it was going to happen, but the risk of the present scenario occurring was much greater than the risk of the market continuing as it had been. The simple fact that the average HP would have been getting near £1million by 2010 should have made that blatantly obvious. The prediction of a change should thus have equally been obvious.

I will continue to refute 'guesswork', if you have a relatively good idea about what you are talking and understand the underlying mechanisms, it is not a guess. If you believe otherwise, one of other of those points is lacking.

IvanOpinion

talksalot81 wrote: »

I will continue to refute 'guesswork', if you have a relatively good idea about what you are talking and understand the underlying mechanisms, it is not a guess. If you believe otherwise, one of other of those points is lacking.

But one of the main underlying mechanisms and key influences was not foreseen, therefore any 'prediction' was based on flawed data which makes it a guess. Also you appear to have limited your 'key parameters' to those that affected yourself and your mates (maybe, maybe not) and not the market as a whole ... that again simply makes it a 'guess'.

My main point though is not whether people guessed or predicted what was going to happen .. it is just that they predicted/guessed a 50:50 situation for a long amount of time .. when the probability of both outcomes ultimately occuring is 100%.

Ivan

master_blaster_2

talksalot

if i remember correct you wanted to buy a nice semi in a nice area (not an appartment or a terrace and defo not in an estate)
for max £180K

i just had a quick look at property news and ther still doesnt seem to be may houses which fit your criteria at your price level .. so i dont konw how you can say ( at present) that your precictions were right
once semi's in a "good" area fall under £180 K then shout away, untill then there wa no great deductions involved ... just hope

leftieM

I don't know what houses are selling for but I understand that bids under asking are currently the norm (from looking at the Templeton Robinson website and anecdotal evidence). Asking prices are no more of a reliable guide to the value of a house than they were during the boom.

moggylover

leftieM wrote: »

Given that renting can be as much as a quarter the cost of buying the same property, and you are not stuck with a property that takes months/years to shift and costs thousands (in fees), I'd say renting is a great option at the moment.

Christ, I don't know where all these houses are with cheap rents - but I know lots of people around here that would love one! lol