Is it too late to sell a house in Northern Ireland???

motorguy

leftieM wrote: »

Talksalot - I was one of the ones who thought you were wrong back then but I admit that I was wrong. I didn't understand the market. I've educated myself since then.
PGilc. At some point in the future I too think that prices will stabilise and rise again. I think they will fall further first. That is the nature of the system. You can change your mind depending on the economic climate at the time. Only a fool would stick to any position in the face of mounting evidence to the contrary.

There is no such thing as 'educating yourself' to the market, or 'predicting what will happen'. Buying or selling is always a gamble, you weigh up the odds and roll the dice and hope it pays off. Yes, there were signs, but no one could predict when or where or even if. Hindsight is always 20/20.

And i WAS being flippant with my response - making the point if you bang one particular drum long enough in the housing market it will actually happen, then you can take credit for being some sort of 'expert'.

motorguy

Colin_Kee wrote: »

In reading through a lot of these comments I've come to the conclusion that people in UK/Ireland have some mad dillusion that they have some God given right to own their house. If you're on a low income or cant meet the 3.5 x Salary figure, rent.. Why do people in UK/Ireland see property as a way of making money.. IT'S A ROOF OVER YOUR HEAD. OK if you can afford it, yes it is a way of making money but everyone, and I mean everyone has tried to jump on the bandwagon.. This whole situation we find ourselves in now is, at the end of the day, something we've brought on ourselves.. People were paying rediculous amounts of money for houses that were way over priced. To be honest I do feel some sympathy for those fining themselves in financial dificulty now but in another way I think, why should I, they made the decision to buy the house, you have to live with your decisions and suffer the consequences if they are wrong. THATS LIFE!!

And no I'm not being Heartless, I've had a house sale fall through also and have had to dramatically reduce the price to get another offer.. You have to live with it.. markets rise and fall...

Untill people start seeing houses as somewhere to live and not some sort of money spinner, this problem will never sort itself out... well thats my thoughts anyway..

Totally agree.

There is also a belief in this country that its some sort of fundamental 'right' to own a house at any cost. This is not the case in other countries - germany being a prime example where something 90% of houses are rented - so why do we put ourselves under here trying to do so?

talksalot81

pgilc1 wrote: »

There is no such thing as 'educating yourself' to the market, or 'predicting what will happen'. Buying or selling is always a gamble, you weigh up the odds and roll the dice and hope it pays off. Yes, there were signs, but no one could predict when or where or even if. Hindsight is always 20/20.

And i WAS being flippant with my response - making the point if you bang one particular drum long enough in the housing market it will actually happen, then you can take credit for being some sort of 'expert'.

Respectfully I think that is nonsene. One can examine market trends both local and foreign. One can look for common features, seek out fundamentals and analyse in light of that. What has happened was easily predictable. Simple demonstration of this has been provided many times and can be summed up by saying that successful and high earning young people could NOT afford property. That being the case, it was absolutely obvious that the market could not be sustained.

Yes, beating one drum long enough means you will eventually be right. But to say that it is impossible to make an educated prediction is just not an intelligent comment to make.

motorguy

No matter how often 'one' examines the local market or 'one' looks at international market trends, you are only ever weighing up the odds and hoping for the best. Whilst (like the dot com boom and bust) a lot of people have made money out of this mess, better people than you or i got their fingers burnt in the housing market - experienced property speculators, property developers, building firms - are you really telling me that you knew better than *all* of them?

There has been a very unique set of circumstances come together, and as well read up on the sunday papers articles on the subject 'one' could not have predicted that.

talksalot81

pgilc1 wrote: »

No matter how often 'one' examines the local market or 'one' looks at international market trends, you are only ever weighing up the odds and hoping for the best. Whilst (like the dot com boom and bust) a lot of people have made money out of this mess, better people than you or i got their fingers burnt in the housing market - experienced property speculators, property developers, building firms - are you really telling me that you knew better than *all* of them?

There has been a very unique set of circumstances come together, and as well read up on the sunday papers articles on the subject 'one' could not have predicted that.

I am telling you that, as a professional data analyst who spends his life weighing up the odds, it is something you can do successfully.

I should also point out to you that being an experienced propert developer means little. Any idiot with a bit of spare cash would have been a success in the last 5 years, anyone who failed should be stopped from breeding such would be their stupidity. The intelligent ones were the ones who saw problems and got out, there were many who did.

Oh, and anyone who relies on the media for their information is doomed to failure. You have to go to the source and do your own analysis. This is something that most normal people have simple never done.

ps. I apologise that sounds rather 'up myself', but this is what I do and there really is a big difference between amateur and professional analysts.

ballyblack

germany being a prime example where something 90% of houses are rented - so why do we put ourselves under here trying to do so?

Renting rules in Germany is totally different eg. renters have more security of tenure etc.
Landlords here has more powers to evict you, as a result renting is not as attractive as it is in Germany!

leftieM

Given that renting can be as much as a quarter the cost of buying the same property, and you are not stuck with a property that takes months/years to shift and costs thousands (in fees), I'd say renting is a great option at the moment.

talksalot81

leftieM wrote: »

Given that renting can be as much as a quarter the cost of buying the same property, and you are not stuck with a property that takes months/years to shift and costs thousands (in fees), I'd say renting is a great option at the moment.

Now im playing devil's advocate with this... but with so many BTLers, there are examples of crappy properties which they are trying to rent out for the same as an IO mortgage would have cost....

IvanOpinion

talksalot81 wrote: »

Respectfully I think that is nonsene. One can examine market trends both local and foreign. One can look for common features, seek out fundamentals and analyse in light of that. What has happened was easily predictable. Simple demonstration of this has been provided many times and can be summed up by saying that successful and high earning young people could NOT afford property. That being the case, it was absolutely obvious that the market could not be sustained.

Yes, beating one drum long enough means you will eventually be right. But to say that it is impossible to make an educated prediction is just not an intelligent comment to make.

There is no such thing as an 'educated prediction' just 'educated guesses' ... the options are 'rise' and 'fall' so there is a 50:50 chance of being right and in fact since nobody provided any sort of timescales both were equally right. Prices rise, prices fall .. they have done so in the past and they will (more than likely) do so in the future.

What has driven the current turmoil is the credit crunch which NOBODY predicted (with any reliability) .. yes there were some snifters but nothing reliable. ALL the big market changes of the last few years have happened because of something unexpected/out-of-the-ordinary outside of the control or guesswork of those making all sorts of predictions.

If people say 'it was always going to happen' then I would agree .. I have heard so many people with 20:20 hindsight saying 'they predicted it' and the one thing that is common, they did NOT predict it the week or month befor it happened without also predicting it for the last 12, 18, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72 months as well. I know people who nailed their colours to the mast throughout the last 5-6 years .. most were wrong ... one was lucky.

There is no such thing as a crystal ball.

Ivan

IvanOpinion

talksalot81 wrote: »

I am telling you that, as a professional data analyst who spends his life weighing up the odds, it is something you can do successfully.

Can I assume then that you have just made millions out of the current situation? If I had any faith in the abundance of "predictions"/guesses I have heard I would be sunning myself on a yacht in the Caribbean now

ALL large financial institutions employ all kinds of analysts for vast sums of money but yet many have made comments using words such as 'unexpected', 'unpredictable market forces', 'global changes' etc. Is it possible that they employ and pay for a load of incompetents to manage our money?

Ivan