Is it too late to sell a house in Northern Ireland???

NAR

Mmm spring time and there certainly appear to be a lot of properties in Bangor with For Sale signs up. It will be interesting to see how quickly they sell and for how much.

talksalot81

To think of an answer for the thread title....

Well there will now be very few people who will disagree that the peak in housing has passed. Many (naively in my view) consider that this is a short term low but that will very much bve arguing against the underlying trend and the fundamental, local and global, economic situation.

I would be intrigued to know how many people would agree (or disagree) that the boat has now sailed and it is an uphill battle for the immediate future.

facingthefuture

boat is on the horizon...sell now at a reduced price, it will only get lower....speaking to a N.I. developer last week....thinks the "sh@t is about to hit the fan" here......

leftieM

The market is at a crossroads. Will there a) be further falls or b) will people begin buying again is sufficient numbers to cause prices to rise again?
I've (literally) put my money on a).
(Apologies to TO'N for nicking his quotation for something mundane.)

championmongo1

I think it's fair to say that the houses that are selling are approx. 20% below their 'peak' value thus would it not be sensible for houses that are still on at their 'peak' value to be reduced accordingly or withdrawn from sale. This would take the housing market back to a 'level playing field' (i.e. remove the time waisters that have their house on for £50k more than an identical house in the same street) which surely would be beneficial for both buyers and sellers as the market would be more transparent which might instill a little confidence?

talksalot81

championmongo1 wrote: »

I think it's fair to say that the houses that are selling are approx. 20% below their 'peak' value thus would it not be sensible for houses that are still on at their 'peak' value to be reduced accordingly or withdrawn from sale. This would take the housing market back to a 'level playing field' (i.e. remove the time waisters that have their house on for £50k more than an identical house in the same street) which surely would be beneficial for both buyers and sellers as the market would be more transparent which might instill a little confidence?

Even then, who will buy? FTBs are out of the game not only because prices are silly, but because loans are now difficult to find. The financial institutions are looking for real evidence that you are in control of your finances (i.e. a deposit) and a good indication that you are up to longer term repayments (i.e. they will not give you an 8x multiple).

As far as I see it, prices may have dropped a bit, but the worsening financial situation probably makes houses even less attainable than at the peak. In my case, that is most definitely the reality.

championmongo1

I have seen elsewhere that wages would need to inflate to £50k a year here for prices to regain their 'peak' value, and this will not happen in 20 years, which I don't agree with as the average couple currently earning two average wages of £21k or whatever it is, giving a joint income of £42k, even with a fairly low mortgage multiplier of 3.5X, giving them access to borrow approx. £150k + their deposit NOW. A higher multiple of 5X is still available if you have decent deposit, meaning that the average couple could afford £210k+.

As with regards wage inflation, I can't find an average annual wage chart, maybe someone could? However in 1970 for a full-time position in a UK solicitor's office you could expect to pick up £126 gross per month which would equate to £1512 a year.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/dna/h2g2/A319619

If we take that as an indication of the average wage, it has increased over 13 fold in 38 years, so might it not be possible for the average wage to double in 20 years???

Also purely taking average wage versus average house price is a fools game as it doesn't take into account investors in the market-there has always been private landlords! There are the couples who buy together as stated above, people with sizeable deposits, etc! Nor does it take into account the fact those on very low wages have never been involved in buying houses so why would we expect that to change now!?! For those reasons I believe house prices will always be above the standard average wage multiplier! Last quarter seen drops, I think this quarter will too, with prices beginning to stabilize by Q3 and the prices to have completely stabilzed by Q4 as those desperate to sell will have sold!

tara747

championmongo1 wrote: »

I have seen elsewhere that wages would need to inflate to £50k a year here for prices to regain their 'peak' value, and this will not happen in 20 years, which I don't agree with as the average couple currently earning two average wages of £21k or whatever it is, giving a joint income of £42k, even with a fairly low mortgage multiplier of 3.5X, giving them access to borrow approx. £150k + their deposit NOW. A higher multiple of 5X is still available if you have decent deposit, meaning that the average couple could afford £210k+.

As with regards wage inflation, I can't find an average annual wage chart, maybe someone could? However in 1970 for a full-time position in a UK solicitor's office you could expect to pick up £126 gross per month which would equate to £1512 a year.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/dna/h2g2/A319619

If we take that as an indication of the average wage, it has increased over 13 fold in 38 years, so might it not be possible for the average wage to double in 20 years???

Just ask yourself this. Could you afford, as a FTB, to buy your own house at the price you are asking?

Yes, wages may have gone up 13-fold in 38 years, but a lot of that was a period of very high inflation. Wage inflation is going to be VERY low in the next few years, imho.

championmongo1

tara747 wrote: »

Just ask yourself this. Could you afford, as a FTB, to buy your own house at the price you are asking?

Yes, wages may have gone up 13-fold in 38 years, but a lot of that was a period of very high inflation. Wage inflation is going to be VERY low in the next few years, imho.

Yes I could buy at £150k as a first time buyer now. I'd actually be in a better position now than when I did buy in May 2006 as then the multiple was over 5X my joint income (100% mortgage) whereas now it would be less than 4X (based on current asking price!). I guess that could be described as 'sub prime' but my payments were very comfortable as they would be now had my better half not got a job in England leaving us now paying out for two properties in their entirety! This has made our payments less comfortable but still manageable and we can still afford flights to see each other at weekends. If the house fails to sell it will be let out, leaving my fiancee & I still able to pay for both properties in their entirety but obviously we will be a lot more comfortable when a tenant is in place. Then the house would become part of my retirement plans. Property has always proved a good long term investment, with only specuvestors (i.e. those looking for short term capital aprreciation) getting burned!

With regards you saying that wage inflation will stay very low, the following article showing that wage inflation is currently holding at 3.5%, which looks pretty average.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7282710.stm

Even so, this means that a person earning say £21k now would be on £25k in five years, £31k in ten, £45k in twenty etc, etc. This could be slightly out depending on exactly what inflation does but does give a rough idea of what we can expect based on average wage inflation!

Smurf71

Am about to put my house on the market. Just got engaged about a month ago, and my fiancee has a 4 Bedroom Detached House just 10mins outside of the town that I live, and it was always our intention to live there together.

I bought a 2 Bedroomed Terraced House in Dec 04 for £70k. When I changed over Mortgages at the end of last year, it was valued at £115k. Would be delighted if I get that now!! The area that I live has had a lot of property investors purchasing houses, but I don't know if that trend will continue.

Here's hoping-will keep you posted.