Nissan to build a new plant.

globalds

steampowered wrote: »

Your post assumes that the pound was overvalued before the Brexit vote.

.

Good Lord ..It is isn't my assumptions ..Go read up on your subject before you come barreling in

From 11 months ago
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/12065157/Pound-is-most-overvalued-currency-in-the-world-analysts-claim.html

The pound is one of the most overvalued currencies in the world and will suffer next year as the Government ramps up spending cuts and uncertainty about Britain’s future in the EU weighs on growth. Analysts at Deutsche Bank warned that the Bank of England may not be able to raise interest rates “at all” if Britain’s recovery slows.

It believes the pound could fall as low as $1.27 next year and $1.15 in 2017 from about $1.485 today if the US Federal Reserve continues to tighten monetary policy and the Bank of England leaves interest rates on hold.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Nonsense.

The pound's devaluation rebalances the economy by lowering people's living standards - we all become poorer - which is exactly the same thing as taking a pay cut to increase competitiveness.

Inflation will now start to rise faster than wages - we will suffer real terms wage deflation - which helps exports to other countries that have not taken these cuts to their living standards and income.

Devaluation hurts everybody - and only a few gain - that's the very definition of the Cons far outweighing the Pros.

When fuel is back at £1.60 a litre, a loaf of bread is £1.50, and it can all be blamed on brexit without any wizadry pokery and ignoring everything else thats gone on in the world.....wake me up.

Until then, you are sounding hysterical.

Until then, I'll carry on reading your sympathy for peoples living standards on one thread, and your licking of lips at rents and house prices being pushed up for the same people on another.

mrginge

Graham_Devon wrote: »

What's changed?

Hamish is now a member of the SNP.

CLAPTON

Looking back over the last 10 years and reading only pre brexit analysis, one learns that the German people suffered from holding their salaries down and suffered from a low exchange rate (euro rate compared what the DM would have been) and didn't borrow and have a foreign current a/c postive balance

The southern EU states, benefited from wage explosions, a high exchange rate (being part of the Euro), lots of borrowing and high foreign current a/c deficits

Obviously Hamish envies the affluence of the southern EU states and feel huge sympathy for the suffering of the Germans people.

Zero_Gravitas

Nissan will not have decided to make these models in the U.K. because the Government told them it would try its best to get a good Brexit deal.

Nissan's decision will be because, at this point in the model development cycle, they have decided that it will cost them less overall to make the cars here and pay tariffs to export them to Europe; than to move the production to another factory, with all the disruption and lost productivity that entails, and make redundancy payments in Sunderland.

And for the next models, if it's going to be cheaper to make them in the EU, then that's where they will be made...

CLAPTON

Zero_Gravitas wrote: »

And for the next models, if it's going to be cheaper to make them in the EU, then that's where they will be made...

was that not the case for the last 40 years or much more?

Zero_Gravitas

CLAPTON wrote: »

was that not the case for the last 40 years or much more?

Indeed - the point I was trying to make (badly) was that Brexit supporters cannot claim this as somehow a positive outcome from the Brexit vote.

Graham_Devon

Zero_Gravitas wrote: »

Indeed - the point I was trying to make (badly) was that Brexit supporters cannot claim this as somehow a positive outcome from the Brexit vote.

You have also made a pretty bad point to be fair, as how else can it be seen?

The continuing manufacture in the Uk all revolved around Brexit. The fact that they are going to continue despite brexit can only be a positive thing if you voted for brexit.

Now, 'I'm under no illusion that the whole "were mulling over our options" thing was another scare tactic.

But it's always been the case that new models are often built elsewhere. Brexit or not.

Mortgagefreeman

mrginge wrote: »

Hamish is now a member of the SNP.

He thinks anyone who voted Brexit is a member of the BNP.

kinger101

Zero_Gravitas wrote: »

Nissan will not have decided to make these models in the U.K. because the Government told them it would try its best to get a good Brexit deal.

Nissan's decision will be because, at this point in the model development cycle, they have decided that it will cost them less overall to make the cars here and pay tariffs to export them to Europe; than to move the production to another factory, with all the disruption and lost productivity that entails, and make redundancy payments in Sunderland.

And for the next models, if it's going to be cheaper to make them in the EU, then that's where they will be made...

If that's the only reason, then it's not a good indicator that other industries, particularly service-based, will remain in the UK. Decommissioning a car plant and opening another is very costly as you point out. Ending a short lease on an office much less so.

If the UK doesn't get reasonable tariffs, if think May is planning to cut corporation tax. Not much of an incentive to the many companies which have already moved their profit offshore with dodgy transfer pricing though.