May promises to help first time buyers

padington

I wonder what it could be this time. Rent to buy your council house possibly ... any more per chance ?

She seems to be preparing herself for raised interest rates with talk of 'helping savers' but can she raise interest rates whilst we are in Brexshit ?

What will Hammonds November announcements be? (apart from boring)

Answers on an electronic post card please.

cells

100% LTV mortgages
Self Cert

Job Done. Ownership goes to 70%

pop_gun

Interest rates can't be raised due to the national debt. Savers can't be helped. It plays well to an audience reared on the old economic model of a penny saved is a penny earned, but in reality those times are long gone for the vast majority.

Hammond is going to turn on the QE spigot by borrowing more and monetizing the resultant debt.

Substantial cuts to welfare would have to come in the form of raising the pension age (sooner rather than later).

Thrugelmir

padington wrote: »

She seems to be preparing herself for raised interest rates with talk of 'helping savers' but can she raise interest rates whilst we are in Brexshit ?

There must be a floor for Sterling at which point the BOE will increase rates. To stabilise the currency.

Thrugelmir

pop_gun wrote: »

Interest rates can't be raised due to the national debt.

Even basket case Italy this week issued 50 year bonds yielding just over 2%. Central banks are buying up the national debts. The debt pile keeps on growing. Time for a change in policy.

Conrad

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The debt pile keeps on growing. Time for a change in policy.

Not gonna happen. Every time I turn on the News / current affairs, someone is demanding we spend more money on their pet interest, from mental health to flood defences, guide dogs to care in the home (to allow longer care visits), maternity provision to combatting the effects of GW in Africa, refugee camps to border force, NHS to pot holes, women's rights in Afghanistan (tens more millions just announced) to exploring the Universe, building up Sudan et al to toad tunnels under busy roads, green energy subsidy to free Uni education demands.


People have an entitlement mind-set now, debt is only going one way.

CLAPTON

only more housing and fewer people will assist the housing situation in London and the SE

cells

Even if London population growth went to zero London is going to need 800,000-1,000,000 additional homes to account for a lower occupancy rate (primarily driven by single occupancy demand)

At the current build rate of ~25k units a year (assuming that could be sustained while wages and materials and regulations go up but real house prices go down) it would take 30-40 years

The same applies notionally with a need for 5-7 million additional homes even with a static population

cells

The government and opposition needs to realise there is no housing problem in at least two thirds of the country and possibly 3/4ths. In those areas its cheaper to buy the average existing terrace home than it is to rent the local social property. By definition that means those areas are very affordable

People are confuses by rising house prices. If house prices go up 20% it does not necessarily mean prices are unaffordable or high it could mean prices went from very cheap to cheap.

The reason for declining ownership rates is primarily the removal of self cert mortgages and to a lesser degree 100% mortgage. If self cert mortgages and 100% LTV return ownership will jump 5% and we would go back towards record ownership levels.

michaels

pop_gun wrote: »

Interest rates can't be raised due to the national debt. Savers can't be helped. It plays well to an audience reared on the old economic model of a penny saved is a penny earned, but in reality those times are long gone for the vast majority.

Hammond is going to turn on the QE spigot by borrowing more and monetizing the resultant debt.

Substantial cuts to welfare would have to come in the form of raising the pension age (sooner rather than later).

With the 'triple lock' there is value for the govt in getting inflation to at least 2.5% to at least stop the pension gap getting bigger.

Plus of course if inflation is higher than govt borrowing costs the national debt is declining in real terms....win/win

Thrugelmir

michaels wrote: »

With the 'triple lock' there is value for the govt in getting inflation to at least 2.5% to at least stop the pension gap getting bigger.

After 2020 what's the likelihood of the triple lock being retained?

If Hammond is fiscally loose now. Then the tightening will be definately happen down the road.

For all the talk of Brexit. The fundamental issues in the economy still remain unresolved. Change of policy in certain areas is probably overdue.