House Prices Up....

cells

In the short term I think it's the taxes which will push prices down not so much the brexit that will be longer term. I hope you are right and prices go up next year but I don't think so

Conrad

At first the taxes worried LLs but all those I talk with are now sanguine and taking various measures to offset. They aren't just going to abandon thier enterprise and stop investing.

chucknorris

Conrad wrote: »

At first the taxes worried LLs but all those I talk with are now sanguine and taking various measures to offset. They aren't just going to abandon thier enterprise and stop investing.

I hope that you are correct, because we will probably sell more (we are selling a house now) but I share cells's opinion, that prices will most likely dip.

cells

Conrad wrote: »

At first the taxes worried LLs but all those I talk with are now sanguine and taking various measures to offset. They aren't just going to abandon thier enterprise and stop investing.

Anecdotal evidence can be misleading and people can outright lie (yeah I'm buying! When in fact they are not).

Transaction levels are a very good indicator of future prices. There are a certain number of people who have to sell and will chase the market down. If transaction levels (aka buyers) fall below that level then prices fall. And transactions are now below that break even point.

For your view to be correct we need transaction levels (buyers) to increase and quite soon.

A 10% fall in prices in London should be seen as a small correction considering how strong price growth has been over the last 5 years. However even that 10% could means millions for some landlords.

padington

I forsee the landlord tax being completely overhauled to temper a risk of recession.

Just watch how much they bend to ensure there isn't House price deflation.

cells

padington wrote: »

I forsee the landlord tax being completely overhauled to temper a risk of recession.

Just watch how much they bend to ensure there isn't House price deflation.

As far as London goes the stamp duty hikes are just plain stupid. Taxes have roughly doubled and transactions have halved resulting in no net gain for the Treasury. I will of course accept that its still a bit too soon to tell for sure but if transaction levels don't improve within 6 months they should do a u turn on the additional stamp duty. If any tax exists if you cut it in half and still brings in the same amount that cut should happen.

The turnover tax is just plain dumb. If a labour government had proposed it all the papers and the Tories would have laughed it out of existence before it got going.

Both should be reversed but I don't think it likely

padington

cells wrote: »

As far as London goes the stamp duty hikes are just plain stupid. Taxes have roughly doubled and transactions have halved resulting in no net gain for the Treasury. I will of course accept that its still a bit too soon to tell for sure but if transaction levels don't improve within 6 months they should do a u turn on the additional stamp duty. If any tax exists if you cut it in half and still brings in the same amount that cut should happen.

The turnover tax is just plain dumb. If a labour government had proposed it all the papers and the Tories would have laughed it out of existence before it got going.

Both should be reversed but I don't think it likely

I think it has has to be, how else do we see off a recession with diving house prices together with growing threats to business from worse trading options looming ?

It's the first thing that will go if I was in charge, everything Osborne did will need to be re-written. Osbourne did bremain budgets, Brexshit budgets will need to be a complete kettle of fish.

We have to become ultra competitive to stave off ten years of uncertainty.

economic

its worth noting location will be even more key in a sell off in london property. you could very well see the sought after limited supply and limited BTL areas holding their value whilst the less desirable areas with heavy concentratuon of BTL and working class will see a bigger decline.

westernpromise

economic wrote: »

its worth noting location will be even more key in a sell off in london property. you could very well see the sought after limited supply and limited BTL areas holding their value whilst the less desirable areas with heavy concentratuon of BTL and working class will see a bigger decline.

You will. Nobody bought in Kilburn because they liked Kilburn; they did so because they couldn't afford Maida Vale. As soon as Maida Vale comes off, Kilburn has to come off more. Highgate / Archway same thing, Marylebone / Lisson Grove same thing, etc.