House Prices Up....

pop_gun

westernpromise wrote: »

My comment was accurate. What do you think "price discovery" means? Where does price discovery occur in, say, the long gilts market?

By what mechanism has "£375bn in QE...found it's [sic] way into the property market and pushed prices up"? Please describe the transmission mechanism.

Otherwise it'll be clear that you're another know nothing blowhard HPC refugee who has mistaken himself for a finance industry savant.

"Price discovery"...jeez...

I believe it's for you to articulate why I was wrong to use the term in the post you're referring to.
Your attempt at deflection, while pathetic, wasn't unexpected. It's quite remarkable, you really have no shame.

If you're an indication of western promise, it's better we look east.;)

seven-day-weekend

lisyloo wrote: »

Do you mean unable to afford a starter flat in areas they would like without putting themselves out (like getting an evening or weekend job).
There are starter flats around for £100k which a couple ought to be able to afford if they put their mind to it.
Obviously these aren't in Kensington and Chelsea but people have almost always had to make sacrifices to get on the ladder.
My parents lived with their parents after they were married to save up. I wouldn't fancy that but that's how it was in the 60's so it's pretty much always been the case that people have had to make sacrifices.

Are the people you know making sacrific like no holidays, second jobs, living with parents etc. Or just moaning that it's not as easy as they want it to be.

If you came here for any sympathy I'm afraid you will find you didn't come to the right place.

Outside London: in my town there are loads of 2 bed flats in decent areas for £100k or less.

cells

I think 2017 is going to be a down year for London, my guess anywhere from 0% to -10% with the middle of that as my best guess. I feel 2018-2019-2020 will be flat.

The stamp duty seems to have had a very big impact on transaction which are down about half what they were in London. I would hope to see a reversal on the stamp duty taxes simply because they have more or less doubled it and see more or less a halving of transactions which will mean no net benefit for the treasury. Any tax which you can cut in half and still see the same money come in should be cut. Of course politics is not always about the logical thing to do.

Conrad

cells wrote: »

I think 2017 is going to be a down year for London, my guess anywhere from 0% to -10% with the middle of that as my best guess. I feel 2018-2019-2020 will be flat.

The stamp duty seems to have had a very big impact on transaction which are down about half what they were in London. I would hope to see a reversal on the stamp duty taxes simply because they have more or less doubled it and see more or less a halving of transactions which will mean no net benefit for the treasury. Any tax which you can cut in half and still see the same money come in should be cut. Of course politics is not always about the logical thing to do.

No chance, it will be a boom year. Ultra low interest rates, still massive numbers entering the nation, much more a safe haven than most of the world and Brexit benefits are considerable of course

economic

cells wrote: »

I think 2017 is going to be a down year for London, my guess anywhere from 0% to -10% with the middle of that as my best guess. I feel 2018-2019-2020 will be flat.

The stamp duty seems to have had a very big impact on transaction which are down about half what they were in London. I would hope to see a reversal on the stamp duty taxes simply because they have more or less doubled it and see more or less a halving of transactions which will mean no net benefit for the treasury. Any tax which you can cut in half and still see the same money come in should be cut. Of course politics is not always about the logical thing to do.

Agree. Here seems to be a lot on the market now in areas where there had been little supply. With the exception of your own home I don't see how it make sense to buy a btl in London. For a yield less then 5-6%.

cells

Conrad wrote: »

No chance, it will be a boom year. Ultra low interest rates, still massive numbers entering the nation, much more a safe haven than most of the world and Brexit benefits are considerable of course

Transaction numbers are too low to susuain current prices. If transaction numbers recover then yes I can see flat or growing prices but if transactions stay at half the norm much longer prices will be going down

I don't expect a crash more a correction of about 5-10%

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

I

cells wrote: »

Transaction numbers are too low to susuain current prices. If transaction numbers recover then yes I can see flat or growing prices but if transactions stay at half the norm much longer prices will be going down

I don't expect a crash more a correction of about 5-10%

But more importantly what will the hpi+/- be for the rest of England. There's more to life than London . I'm thinking flat growth / up to 5% growth for the NW.

westernpromise

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »

There's more to life than London .

I don't understand.

cells

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »

I

But more importantly what will the hpi+/- be for the rest of England. There's more to life than London . I'm thinking flat growth / up to 5% growth for the NW.

I don't know I don't follow the other markets as closely but I agree with you that they are less likely to be impacted by the tax changes as prices are lower outside London the stock is less private rental than London and people earn lower wages than in London (which means the interest rate changes are less likely to have as big an impact)

So I can see a situation where prices in London are lower in 5 years than they are today while those outside London are higher than today

Conrad

cells wrote: »

Transaction numbers are too low to susuain current prices. If transaction numbers recover then yes I can see flat or growing prices but if transactions stay at half the norm much longer prices will be going down

I don't expect a crash more a correction of about 5-10%

I think what you're witnessing is just a spell of weather, not climate.


The fundamentals all point to a buoyant market;


+ Lenders wanting to lend
+ Very low rates meaning a mortgage is at least no more than rent
+ Population rising - people have to live somewhere
+ Investors still invest, and many don't like putting their trust in equities
+ Benign economic landscape, FTSE 250 back above June levels, robust consumer confidence and car sales, service and manufacturing indicies are trending well etc


You will soon see this spell of weather pass and people flock into the agents, especially come early 2017 - so I suggest people beat the rush


Triggering A 50 wont make a jot of difference,