Economists, not the economy, are the only ones taking a battering from Brexit

The_Last_Username

There could be no clearer explanation for the use of the term "Remainiac" than reading this thread.
:T

ruperts

globalds wrote: »

I am glad you know the cost of so many items to be able to make such a bold statement about consumer prices.

Let's take holidays.
If the cost of going abroad goes up due to exchange rates.
It would have the consequence of making the staycation more attractive.
The UK holiday maker is then adding to the economy.

OK, if we're being ridiculously simplistic then a weak pound makes British businesses attractive takeover targets. How many staycations would I need take to cover the costs of a successful medium sized British business being taken over and having all their profits diverted abroad? Hundreds of thousands, would be my guess. Do I want to go on hundreds of thousands of staycations? Apart from the obvious time constraint issue, no I don't. The weather in the UK is awful. I'd rather holiday in my garden shed than drive to some awful British seaside resort and sit there eating soggy chips in the rain while I pretend to be having a good time.


I think you've been duped by the politicians who talk about 'the economy' as if a successful economy means more money in your pocket. It doesn't. It means more money in their pocket. We had six years of George Osborne telling us how strong he was making the economy. Great news, he said, we have the fastest growing developed economy in the world. Hoorah! What he neglected to tell us was that we also have the lowest wage growth in the developed world. Our business leaders are raking it in, sure, but ordinary employees haven't had a pay rise for a decade. What good is a strong economy when 99.99% of people are no better off for it?


A strong pound was at least one thing we had in our favour. It gave us options and spending power. Now we haven't even got that. Business leaders are delighted, now they get us even cheaper. The economy will do fine, I'm sure, but it won't quite do well enough to trigger any pay rises for normal people. It never does, does it? Always seems to be either terrible, in which case you're either getting laid off or a pay cut, or it's doing just ok, in which case you keep your job but no real terms pay rise this year I'm afraid. Funny how the economy is so changeable but somehow never seriously favours the workers, isn't it? It's almost as if it's designed that way.

AnotherJoe

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Brexit hasn't happened yet....

The only people looking daft are those claiming the effects of Brexit not happening before Brexit has happened mean they won't ever happen should we Brexit.

Nope, most of these forecasts were for immediately after a Brexit vote, not for say ten years later.
And if they cant even get the day after correct, what hope ten years later?

CLAPTON

ruperts wrote: »

OK, if we're being ridiculously simplistic then a weak pound makes British businesses attractive takeover targets. How many staycations would I need take to cover the costs of a successful medium sized British business being taken over and having all their profits diverted abroad? Hundreds of thousands, would be my guess. Do I want to go on hundreds of thousands of staycations? Apart from the obvious time constraint issue, no I don't. The weather in the UK is awful. I'd rather holiday in my garden shed than drive to some awful British seaside resort and sit there eating soggy chips in the rain while I pretend to be having a good time.

yes you are being ridiculous.

I think you've been duped by the politicians who talk about 'the economy' as if a successful economy means more money in your pocket. It doesn't. It means more money in their pocket. We had six years of George Osborne telling us how strong he was making the economy. Great news, he said, we have the fastest growing developed economy in the world. Hoorah! What he neglected to tell us was that we also have the lowest wage growth in the developed world. Our business leaders are raking it in, sure, but ordinary employees haven't had a pay rise for a decade. What good is a strong economy when 99.99% of people are no better off for it?

all people are massively better off that they were formally which is why millions of people want to come here because everyone is housed and everyone has money whether they work or not.

A strong pound was at least one thing we had in our favour. It gave us options and spending power. Now we haven't even got that. Business leaders are delighted, now they get us even cheaper. The economy will do fine, I'm sure, but it won't quite do well enough to trigger any pay rises for normal people. It never does, does it? Always seems to be either terrible, in which case you're either getting laid off or a pay cut, or it's doing just ok, in which case you keep your job but no real terms pay rise this year I'm afraid. Funny how the economy is so changeable but somehow never seriously favours the workers, isn't it? It's almost as if it's designed that way.

the 'strong ' pound was artifically high because we were selling off all our successful businesses, selling land and property and also borrowing large amount of foreign money. Certainly a socialist dream way of living but never going to be a long term thing.

mayonnaise

AnotherJoe wrote: »

Nope, most of these forecasts were for immediately after a Brexit vote, not for say ten years later.
And if they cant even get the day after correct, what hope ten years later?

What forecasts were that then?

Redknapps_Dog

mayonnaise wrote: »

What forecasts were that then?

That deluded and stupid hysterical types (from both sides) would take to the internet and spew out dubious at best stats to support their view.

ToasterScheme

westernpromise wrote: »

It's not a true science, it's a social science. Cambridge economics graduates receive a Bachelor of Arts degree and the university classifies it as an Arts subject.

Cambridge Engineering graduates receive a BA too. Discuss.

Thrugelmir

For a measure of balance. The IMF in it's annual report on the UK economy released shortly before the vote did also say.

In a baseline scenario in which the UK remains in the EU, growth would be expected to recover in late 2016, as the effects of the referendum waned. But the IMF’s experts also forecast various threats to the UK economy beyond the closely fought vote.

They included Britain’s relatively weak trade position, with a record current account deficit last year. There was also uncertainty about the degree to which the UK’s poor productivity growth would recover and risks associated with the UK’s “buoyant” property market.

Brexit was far from being the only concern. The other risks were unchanged irrespective of the outcome.

July 2016 balance of trade figures were again poor.

July 2016 budget surplus was also lower than the corresponding period for 2015.

Difficult times lie ahead.

Malthusian

Wikipedia wrote:

19th-century and later universities usually distinguish between arts and sciences subjects by awarding either a B.A. or B.Sc. degree. However, some older or ancient universities, such as Oxford, CambridgeI][URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed"]citation needed[/URL][/I and Dublin traditionally award B.A.s to undergraduates having completed the final examinations, e.g. Part II Tripos (Cambridge), Final Honour Schools (Oxford), Moderatorship (Dublin), in most subjects including the sciences.

FWIW, my economics degree is a BSc, and focused more on the mathematics and statistics side than the old debates between Keynesians and Friedmanites (although that was a matter of personal choice and there was a great deal of flexibility).

Economics is both an art and a science (I tended towards the science side). As is engineering to some degree (oh dear). Two engineers should agree on how gravity works but can legitimately disagree on how a bridge should be built.

Filo25

ToasterScheme wrote: »

Cambridge Engineering graduates receive a BA too. Discuss.

I was thinking that, by my distant recollection nearly all Cambridge degrees are BAs,with a free MA for good measure a few years later.