50% house price falls

carolt

Hello goldustmedia. Thank you for resurrecting a long-lost thread on 50% price falls...I thought they'd all been deleted..? :rolleyes:

It makes lovely reading.

Interested in why you resurrected this thread now and have been so hyperactive trying to destroy everyone's hypotheses from several weeks ago? If you are so convinced prices will rise, why the effort?

As for me - with reference to whom you kicked off today's busy streak, I think - I'm not the best example of what you're trying to prove. I didn't buy years ago not because I thought the market would crash, but because we got let down over a succession of houses - eg in one the couple were divorcing and she didn't have rights to sell the house, 2 got pulled by nervous vendors after offers had been agreed, and finally, this February, we had some dodgy stuff going on with another buyer and a double-dealing estate agent. Of course I wish I'd bought years ago - not because I'd be rolling in huge profits - I wouldn't be as I want to own for security and am not likely to realise any profit at all as I need a home to live in with my family! But as I live in a very small village, there are very few properties and it just isn't that easy to find something suitable.

I'm also a bad example as when we got let down in February, I took a long hard look at the state of the housing market and my own and my family's need for security and decided - and strongly believe - that renting is the best option at the moment. I have absolutely no interest in buying at these prices - I think it's lunacy when it is so much cheaper to rent and house prices are so out of kilter with earnings.

By all means, buy, buy, buy, if you wish. I think it's a very dangerous not to say crazy step to take at the moment, and with every day that passes and more bad news is uncovered and splashed across the front pages of the papers, the more convinced I become.

But I am sure you have no more respect for my judgement than I have for yours, so I am happy to differ. After all, when property markets crash, the real tragedy is be watching innocent, hard-working people suffer as a result. Knowing that a number of them are just 'investors' such as yourself, to whom a property is not a family home but an 'investment', 'equity' etc, does make me feel a bit better about it all......

SquatNow

50% drops are too low an estimate in my opinion. I wont say the number I expect or the reasons as the BTLers on the board will flame me.

I'de rather wait until I'm proved right then gloat.

IveSeenTheLight

SquatNow wrote: »

50% drops are too low an estimate in my opinion.
I'de rather wait until I'm proved right then gloat.

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
Thanks SquatNow, you've made me smile today

harryhound

BBC Radio 4 had an interesting item on Wednesday.

If you like me feel quite self satisfied that you have now paid off the mortgage on something that cost you 16K and is now worth lots of 6 figures; think again:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/youandyours/items/01/2007_43_wed.shtml

You might find that a con man has "stolen" your home and then raised a huge mortgage on it. The first thing you will know about it is getting a stroppy letter from the mortgage provider asking why the mortgage payment has bounced.

So as well as checking your credit rating regularly, here is another chore: Check your own entry regularly at the Land Registry. (The Registry in my experience will show you your own for free if you call in person; other wise it is 3 GBP on the web.)

As a victim of identity fraud, whatever you do the "smell" about your reputation will never go away; because you can never prove you were not in on the crime. Fraud is now a bigger criminal activity than the drugs business; and it is the innocent "secure" people that are the victims because "that is where the money is".

Harry.

PS Come to think of it; I would blame the mortgage company rather than the Registry for accepting the fraudulent mortgage proposal. What does it take for the professional surveyor on visiting the property to say. I need the signature of Mr Bloggins the owner and mortgagee of the property. Thank you Mr Bloggins and now I need proof of your actual residence and a copy of you passport or driving licence. (The latter documents would NOT protect a landlord, where the tenants have switched the property ownership into their own names) BUT it would stop surveyors getting money for doing a "drive by" valuation.

PPS My original posting on what is available for 3 GBP at the land registry is further back on this thread here:

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?p=6395212&highlight=gazundering#post6395212

harryhound

Property details for...........................
Semi-detached, Freehold, -- Beds, -- Baths, -- Receps -
Recently sold: £205,000 - Sold on: 13th Mar 2009

Darling Daughter, back in summer 2007, was proud of her negotiating skills in getting the price on this place down to £240,000.

What happened to Mr & Mrs "sub prime" Mew, we cannot say, but there has been a sale between a willing buyer and a willing seller, now reported on "Zoopla". Let us hope 13 is not an unlucky number for the new buyers.

Harry.






> >From: [EMAIL="xxxxxxx@gmaill.com"]xxxxxxx@hotmail.com[/EMAIL]>
> >To: Darling[EMAIL="Daughter@gmail.com"]Daughter@gmail.com[/EMAIL]
> >Subject: Britain: 2010 - Buy a house or throw yourself off a cliff ?
> >Date: xxx, xx Jul 2007 hh:mm:13 +0000
>
> >
> >Hi Darling Daughter,
> >
> >I personally would snap up a 6 month shorthold for the winter and see if
> >prices start to wobble.
> >I'm tempted to have a gamble with you. We select an estate of nearly new
> >houses recently built somewhere nearby; where there are a
> >significant number of identical houses.

> >I would bet you that the houses registered on the land registry from June to
> >December 2007 will be MORE expensive than the identical houses registered
> >from March to June 2008. From a selection of at least 3 of each identical
> >houses. Remember the prices need to go up at least 2.5% to keep up with
> >inflation or 4% just to keep up with the net return of keeping the money
> >in the bank or about 6.5% to keep up with the mortgage cost of money.
> >(due to go up to over 7% ?).
> >.............................................................................................................
> >...........................................................................................................

> >.........................................................................................................
> >Dad.
> >
> >"A millionaire is someone who bought a house in London and stayed alive for
> >a bit" - a joke on the radio as I write.
> >

harryhound wrote: »

Getting a bit off topic but, I would recommend, especially in the present climate, accessing the Land Registry BEFORE going to view a potential purchase. For 3 GBP you get a plan showing the extent of the property and for another 3 GBP the register entries: A Property - B Proprietorship - C Charges. A confirms what you can already see in the plan BUT legally it is the writing not the plan that is more powerful. B tells you who really owns it. C tells you about their freedom of action over what they own. The dates against each piece of information help you understand the age of the property and how long the sellers have owned it (If nothing else alarm bells ring if the sellers appear to disagree with the Land Registry;))

So in the doctored example below:
1. The people who sold the land for building have put some restrictions ("burdens") on the proprietors' freedom (you sometimes have to pay a few more 3 GBP's to find the details - it can be anything, but something saying they can restrict further construction on the land is significant.)
2. The developer has added some more restrictions, possibly for the benefit of the estate as a whole.
3&4. The (well known) Plc, which provided the original mortgage, won't let the land be sold until it gets its money back.
5&6. The (notorious, according to Google, USA based) Ltd subsidiary, which provided the second mortgage, won't let the land be sold until it gets its money back.

So you now know that Mr & Mrs seller paid xxxxx GBP to buy the place in 2003 and used Plc, the well known UK mortgage provider, to finance their purchase, though you don't know their Loan to Value.
BUT
Three years later here they are getting a further mortgage. WHY are they getting it from Ltd and not from Plc.; are they over 100% LTV, stupid or desperate? Probably all three?

Mr & Mrs seller have set themselves up for "gazundering" in a falling market.

C: Charges Register
This register contains any charges and other matters
that affect the land.
1 The parts of the land affected thereby are subject to the rights
granted by a Deed dated...............said Deed also contains restrictive covenants.
NOTE: Copy filed under XXXXXXXX.
2 A Transfer of the land in this title dated ...............made between
(1) ................... Limited and (2) ........... and .............
................ contains restrictive covenants.

3 (dd.10.2003) REGISTERED CHARGE dated dd mmmmm 2003 to secure the moneys including the further advances therein mentioned.
4 (dd.mm.yyyy) Proprietor: aaaaaaa PLC (Co. Regn. No. 99999999) of ...........................................

5 (dd.07.2006) REGISTERED CHARGE dated dd mmmmm 2006.
6 (dd.07.2006) Proprietor: bbbbbbbbbbbbbb LIMITED (Co. Regn.
No. 8888888) of .........................................

End of register
Title number xxxxxxxx

googler

OK, this thread was started in Sep 2007, and here's a real-world example that supports a 15% drop from mid-2007 to Mar-2009. It's not quite the 50% mentioned in the title. Which part of the country was this in?

Anyone else got any real examples that cover the same period, along with their approximate location?

mbga9pgf

Loads more than 15%

http://www.propertysnake.co.uk/

type your postcode in and admire the carnage!

googler

I'm tempted to say "What carnage?" with a big smile...... propertysnake says;

"You searched for listings within (my postcode). There are currently 0 price drops in this postcode. Click here to return to the search page."

My postcode is 'somewhere in scotland', and I put in only the first four chars, which covers two or three towns in the county.

googler

Searched nearby postcodes, and all it comes up with is three properties - one at 3%, another at 4% and the last at 7%.

mbga9pgf

well, I have some 20%+ falls in my area. What is your postcode then?