Are you a crash troll?

Eric_the_half_a_bee

westernpromise wrote: »

Because that's about as far back as Usenet archives go....

Nothing to do with the fact that plenty of "crash trolls" existed IRL a decade previously and were proved spectacularly right?

kinger101

Eric_the_half_a_bee wrote: »

Nothing to do with the fact that plenty of "crash trolls" existed IRL a decade previously and were proved spectacularly right?

I don't think anyone in disagreeing that at some point in the future house prices will fall. It might even be soon. However, you wouldn't call someone who constantly told you it's going to snow in the UK tomorrow a weatherman.

chucknorris

Crashy_Time wrote: »

No, it is CrashNorris checking if Westernpromise has had his medication.

Whatever helps get you through the day Crashy, without having to face up to your disastrous financial decisions and what your BCR is, glad to assist. I think I'd struggle to live with the consequences of what you have done, but then again, I'm not likely to be so incompetent, I suppose it is a case of reaping what you sow.

AnotherJoe

Eric_the_half_a_bee wrote: »

Nothing to do with the fact that plenty of "crash trolls" existed IRL a decade previously and were proved spectacularly right?

I doubt it since they would not have bought in after that. In order to be right they would need to take advantage of the crash and buy in after the crash.

I dont know if its one of the original criteria but another one might be "You're a crash troll if you always claim houses are too expensive and you never ever buy one, even after a major crash". lets face it, Crashy will never buy a house, ever. First because he thinks they are too expensive all the time, and second because he now cant afford it.

Eric_the_half_a_bee

AnotherJoe wrote: »

I dont know if its one of the original criteria but another one might be "You're a crash troll if you always claim houses are too expensive and you never ever buy one, even after a major crash".

I agree, that is silly. But it is equally silly to imply that anybody who ever suggests that house prices might be due for a fall is an irrational "troll", as the OP effectively seems to think. And supporting that with an analysis which starts in 1996, i.e. cherry picking the best year in the last half century from which to calculate trends, is disingenuous or naive.

System

What's going to happen to the HPI when IRs increase (hyperinflation)?

wotsthat

mrlegend123 wrote: »

What's going to happen to the HPI when IRs increase (hyperinflation)?

I've just checked with HPC and prices will crash whether interest rates increase, decrease or stay the same.

London must be just rubble and burnt tree stumps by now because the crew have been posting daily evidence of a crash in progress since January 2014.

wotsthat

I think the OP missed one. Crash trolls, I'd suggest, are predominately male.

One chap on HPC thinks because he rents he won't be able to settle down or have a family. I'd suggest it's more to do with his lack of a sunny personality than not being an owner occupier.

System

There will be a change of monetary system well before a HPC.

westernpromise

Eric_the_half_a_bee wrote: »

I agree, that is silly. But it is equally silly to imply that anybody who ever suggests that house prices might be due for a fall is an irrational "troll", as the OP effectively seems to think. And supporting that with an analysis which starts in 1996, i.e. cherry picking the best year in the last half century from which to calculate trends, is disingenuous or naive.

I didn't "imply that anybody who ever suggests that house prices might be due for a fall is an irrational "troll"". I listed 16 very specific indicators of being a crash troll, none of which included "house prices might be due for a fall".

I didn't provide "an analysis which starts in 1996" - I gave an example crash troll post from 1996 right after a crash, which I suggested proves that if there are still crash trolls even after a 30% crash, there probably always will be.

Finally, I did not "cherry pick the best year in the last half century", I simply went back as far as available online records allow.

What I have shown is that crash trolls think and say exactly the same things in all market conditions including rising, falling, static and just-crashed markets. If you did manage to find and cite a crash troll who - apparently accurately - predicted a property crash in 1989, you will also find that this troll has continued to predict a crash ever since. This is why I provided the example of a farcically silly crash troll, who predicted a crash in pretty well every post he made about house prices from 1996 to 2011. Someone who updates their opinion as the years go by is not a crash troll. The crash troll is a stopped clock.