Are you a crash troll?

Crashy_Time

economic

is that you crashy?

westernpromise

Which in that list does not apply to you, Crashy?

What's your BCR? What's the NPV of the lifetime's rent you owe?

SalsaDanca

AFF8879 wrote: »

What does BCR stand for? Seen that a few times but Google produces no results :-(

Breakeven Crash Requirement

lippy1923

So basically they wont pay for their own mortgage because they believe house prices are too high, but they will happily pay someone else's mortgage instead?

silvercar

lippy1923 wrote: »

So basically they wont pay for their own mortgage because they believe house prices are too high, but they will happily pay someone else's mortgage instead?

They have little option unless they are in prison/ living with family/ job accommodation.

I think they are generally people who can't afford to buy and have a vested interest in keeping prices as low as possible until they can afford to do so. Spreading the 'crash' view increases the chances.

EdGasket

I didn't think trolls were real. Next you'll be telling us that Santa is also real.

Cornucopia

silvercar wrote: »

They have little option unless they are in prison/ living with family/ job accommodation.

Do house-price-crash trolls live under rented bridges?

FWIW, I think HPC trolling is just an extreme version of the lack of reality and insight that virtually everyone suffers from regarding house prices.

I'm not sure that their position is that much more remarkable than the "dinner party set" who congratulate each other on their HPI good fortune without recognising that they need to no longer own property to completely realise their gains.

It's certainly possible to make actual money from notional HPI gains, but it's more complicated than the typical property owner's sequential purchasing habit.

westernpromise

Cornucopia wrote: »

I'm not sure that their position is that much more remarkable than the "dinner party set" who congratulate each other on their HPI good fortune

Perhaps, but see my 4 above:

4. Relatedly, nobody who took a risk that paid off 10 years later took any risk at all. Buying today is stupid because there’s going to be a crash; in 10 years’ time, buying today will have been riskless, because everyone knew there wasn’t going to be a crash.

When you buy a house you always do so at what feels like a toppy price. If you pay £200k the house probably feels like it's worth £190k. If it were certain to go up to £250k tomorrow then the price would be £250k today to reflect that.

Your crashtroll always thinks the price is about to fall and that the house is worth its 2009 price. To buy it is a huge risk. The homebuyer / landlord just gets on with it and buys it at £200k and 10 years down the line it's worth £375k.

The crash troll who insisted that buying was a huge risk - and who didn't therefore buy - will later insist that the buyer actually took no risk at all. He wasn't smart, he didn't reap a return on his risk - he was just lucky and it's all a fix. And so there should be CGT on the main residence, or an Act of Attainder against landlords, etc.

The hallmark of the crash troll is that risks others take aren't risks. Likewise, to a crash troll it's never a risk not to buy.

pathtofreedom

I'm not a crash troll but I made a huge mistake with my last house that they are cheap "t'up north". I bought in what was a good area in 2007, ended up selling at a huge loss 9 years later, as the prices didn't recover and the area declined massively. So for all the people saying just move out of london and t'up north are perpetuating a housing myth I think. If I had just bought in the area I am now originally, it might have cost a bit more to start with, but I'd be out of negative equity by now and have more equity to play with to move on.

Luckily I'm single and never wanted children though, so a small place is fine for me, but if I had have wanted to progress into a bigger house I'd have had no way of doing it. I essentially was left with a massive debt to get my old house back to the point I could pay the mortgage off, as well as a new deposit to start all over again.