How low will property go?

AG47

AnotherJoe wrote: »

Somethings happening, all my housebuilder shares up by around 3% today on no news I can see rest of the market doing nothing or down a tadge. Probably means some news soon?

Dead cat bounce, next round of selling and then the really big falls

chucknorris

AG47 wrote: »

Dead cat bounce, next round of selling and then the really big falls

Do you think that they might fall as low as when you sold your imaginary property portfolio?

AG47

The next bottom will be a little higher than the last one in the 90s

ukcarper

AG47 wrote: »

The next bottom will be a little higher than the last one in the 90s

Is that real or nominal?

cells

ukcarper wrote: »

Is that real or nominal?

For the housing market to look like the 1995 bottom in real terms you need 20 years of what happened from 1975 to 1995.

So if the population increased by only 1.8million while 6 million new builds are added and where interest rates go towards 12-15% then 2035 prices in teal terms will look like 1995 prices. However the current projection is about 9 million increase in population (not 1.8million) with about 3.5 million new builds (not 6 million) and interest rates look likely to be no higher than 4% (not 12-15%)

Right now anyone who expects 1995 prices is silly their assumptions about the future are completely at odds with what is happening and likely to happen

economic

AG47 wrote: »

The next bottom will be a little higher than the last one in the 90s

You are silly

Mortgagefreeman

economic wrote: »

You are silly

But he know all about bottoms, because he's talking out of one.

AG47

cells wrote: »

For the housing market to look like the 1995 bottom in real terms you need 20 years of what happened from 1975 to 1995.

So if the population increased by only 1.8million while 6 million new builds are added and where interest rates go towards 12-15% then 2035 prices in teal terms will look like 1995 prices. However the current projection is about 9 million increase in population (not 1.8million) with about 3.5 million new builds (not 6 million) and interest rates look likely to be no higher than 4% (not 12-15%)

Right now anyone who expects 1995 prices is silly their assumptions about the future are completely at odds with what is happening and likely to happen

You are making the mistake of supply and demand, where you count everybody who wants to buy a property as demand, when the truth is it doesn't matter how many people want to buy, all that matters is how many people can raise the funds to buy. That is the demand. And it's shrinking as banks tighten borrowing, and interest rates can only go up in the future.

I do see the bottom of the next property crash equivalent the the last bottoms of every other property cycle. Ofcourse prices won't go to the same low they were in the 90s, they will go to the equivalent adjusted low compared with everything else.

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

AG47 wrote: »

You are making the mistake of supply and demand, where you count everybody who wants to buy a property as demand, when the truth is it doesn't matter how many people want to buy, all that matters is how many people can raise the funds to buy. That is the demand. And it's shrinking as banks tighten borrowing, and interest rates can only go up in the future.

I do see the bottom of the next property crash equivalent the the last bottoms of every other property cycle. Ofcourse prices won't go to the same low they were in the 90s, they will go to the equivalent adjusted low compared with everything else.

You know interest rates have been at 1% or under for nearly 8 yrs... You realise they've just been lowered to 0.25%....... You are seeing a trend of lower interest rates globally but you expect an increase soon?

Can I have some of whatever you're sniffiing.

AG47

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »

You know interest rates have been at 1% or under for nearly 8 yrs... You realise they've just been lowered to 0.25%....... You are seeing a trend of lower interest rates globally but you expect an increase soon?

Can I have some of whatever you're sniffiing.

I never said that at all, I said they can't go much lower, all they can do is go up. I have a long term view.