How low will property go?

p1212

cells wrote: »

I only speak basic crash cheerleader. is my interpretation correct

'I have no idea how much prices will fall, maybe to 2010 levels if the government want it and I dont know the time frame oh and prices might go up too but I think the chances of that are lower'

If I have interpreted correctly thats not a lot of information or very useful

Sorry, you need to ask Theresa May about what she wants to do when you have your afternoon tea with her, as I dont know this.

Crashy_Time

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »

You'll be able to laugh at us "mortgage free mugs" from the luxury of your 1 bed rented flat when the crash does eventually hit. We might be laughing as well though...... The drop will likely be less than than all the HPI gravy we've benefited from.... & that's just from the last 5 yrs.:rotfl:

When did you pay off the mortgage? Well done, just in time for the crash probably....:rotfl:

Crashy_Time

cells wrote: »

I only speak basic crash cheerleader. is my interpretation correct

'I have no idea how much prices will fall, maybe to 2010 levels if the government want it and I dont know the time frame oh and prices might go up too but I think the chances of that are lower'

If I have interpreted correctly thats not a lot of information or very useful

The bit about prices going up was just the dregs of your old programming kicking in, and you were wrong about the rest of it as well. Just stick to the language you are good at...Wishful Ramblings.:money:

ukcarper

p1212 wrote: »

Don't see why would it be difficult to allocate new land for example around Guildford, just farms and agriculture around and look at the prices.

Have to improve transport links though unless you like sitting on A3 and M25 or squeezing on to an already overcrowded train.

p1212

cells wrote: »

people pay a premium to live in certain areas. Generally this is in the center of town but not always. So building more will help reduces prices everywhere it wont reduce them as much in the center of town



WRONG: Prices can and eventually (possibly decades away for most English cities and towns) will fall well below build cost. You can already see this in some parts of England eg in Stoke prices are below build cost. Also 1995 London for much of it was below build cost.

Building does continue as builders are able to charge a premium above old stock or they concentrate on higher end builds.

Germany is probably the leader in this as their demographics are the worst. Homes there are worth less than build cost but they continue to build (largest reit has somehting like 300,000 properties on its books at around 40k euro each)




Not everywhere perhaps not in 75% of the country there is good supply of properties and they are affordable/cheap so planning is not really an issue. On the other hand places like London are difficult to get the land for mass builds you either need to compulsory purchase and knock down perfectly fine homes or build on the finite number of brownfield also fairly expensive sites. Even if greenbelt is given up its going to have two factors: 1 yes prices and rents will fall but 2: that is going to mean a much fewer people leave london and much more come so overall 3: you are going to need to up the build rate by a huge amount to cover all this I think probably >100k units a year and for London to grow at >200,000 people a year.

Look at this, what do you think how much these houses do worth:

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@51.2297382,-0.5897448,117m/data=!3m1!1e3

You see all the potential land supply around, ye? I think farmers would be more than happy to parcel it up and sell it for 150K each.

I explain once more. We have enough houses, but we are locked into the same room with exponentially created speculative demand on top of naturally increasing demand due to more and more people. That's why prices are going up.

We need to "remove" some of the poeple from the system OR we need to get rid of speculative money OR we need to break the lock and ease up planning, so we can get out of the room and build somewhere (the latest would solve the problem of speculative money AND population increase too).

I think "removing" people is unacceptable, so that leaves us with figthing speculative money OR ease up planning.

If you haven't noticed yet, government just started a fight on speculative money, which is likely to go on, so the game is more or less over unless they change their mind.

For further information write to Theresa May and ask her whether she wants to go on with fighting speculative money or not, unfortunately I don't have any information on this.

cells

p1212 wrote: »

Look at this, what do you think how much these houses do worth:

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@51.2297382,-0.5897448,117m/data=!3m1!1e3

You see all the potential land supply around, ye? I think farmers would be more than happy to parcel it up and sell it for 150K each.

I explain once more. We have enough houses, but we are locked into the same room with exponentially created speculative demand on top of naturally increasing demand due to more and more people. That's why prices are going up.

We need to "remove" some of the poeple from the system OR we need to get rid of speculative money OR we need to break the lock and ease up planning, so we can get out of the room and build somewhere (the latest would solve the problem of speculative money AND population increase too).

I think "removing" people is unacceptable, so that leaves us with figthing speculative money OR ease up planning.

If you haven't noticed yet, government just started a fight on speculative money, which is likely to go on, so the game is more or less over unless they change their mind.

For further information write to Theresa May and ask her whether she wants to go on with fighting speculative money or not, unfortunately I don't have any information on this.

Does that apply in the north and midlands too?
Are we going to see 50% off by year x only in London or are the £80k terraces in Stoke or Middlesborough also going to crash 50% to £40k?

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

Crashy_Time wrote: »

When did you pay off the mortgage? Well done, just in time for the crash probably....:rotfl:

I'll answer when you answer the question:

What's your BCR?

:beer:

AnotherJoe

Somethings happening, all my housebuilder shares up by around 3% today on no news I can see rest of the market doing nothing or down a tadge. Probably means some news soon?

MARTYM8`

AnotherJoe wrote: »

Somethings happening, all my housebuilder shares up by around 3% today on no news I can see rest of the market doing nothing or down a tadge. Probably means some news soon?

Good news for the shareholders of housebuilders - if not the taxpayer perhaps to come.

More socialising any losses and subsiding future profits?

http://m.propertyweek.com/5084708.article?mobilesite=enabled

AnotherJoe

MARTYM8` wrote: »

Good news for the shareholders of housebuilders - if not the taxpayer perhaps to come.

More socialising any losses and subsiding future profits?

http://m.propertyweek.com/5084708.article?mobilesite=enabled

Nice for my shares and dividends. Crashy's gonna blow a fuse though LOL.

p.s. Followed the links in that article. Its the 1950's all over again. Prefabs are back !!
And about time too, sticking bricks on top of one another and nailing bits of wood together all in a muddy field in the rain surely isn't the best way to build a house these days?