U.K. Property fund

bigadaj

economic wrote: »

and that is not just a view. i have personally allocated a significant part of my wealth to US shares. and even at these levels i am continuing to buy.

Looks a bit odd quoting yourself, it's possible to edit posts.

I think an issue is that we are in uncharted economic territory.

We've not had interest rates this low in 300 years, analysis is normally based on the last 125 years, so cape type analysis isn't used to current conditions, not withstanding the usual debate about how you cyclically adjust a la Gordon brown.

The debt is still a massive millstone round the neck of the world since the gfc, interest rates are getting even lower to the point of being negative.

I'd agree that equities are still one of the few places to get a return, the us is the only superpower, but diversification is key. I've only recently started using p2p, returns are good but it'll be interesting to see whether default rates start increasing.

economic

bigadaj wrote: »

Looks a bit odd quoting yourself, it's possible to edit posts.

I think an issue is that we are in uncharted economic territory.

We've not had interest rates this low in 300 years, analysis is normally based on the last 125 years, so cape type analysis isn't used to current conditions, not withstanding the usual debate about how you cyclically adjust a la Gordon brown.

The debt is still a massive millstone round the neck of the world since the gfc, interest rates are getting even lower to the point of being negative.

I'd agree that equities are still one of the few places to get a return, the us is the only superpower, but diversification is key. I've only recently started using p2p, returns are good but it'll be interesting to see whether default rates start increasing.

yes i agree and is the main reason why US equities will continue to do well RELATIVE to other asset classes. they will be first to rise rates, dollar will continue to rise, their economy will outperform and the rest of the world looks like its not getting any better (capital flight). therefore US equities is simply just a no brainer IMO. its liquid, has depth, internationally traded, earns a yield and is transparent. no other asset class has all this.

i personally would own 100% US equities if i had the balls and if i didnt own my property.

bigadaj

economic wrote: »

yes i agree and is the main reason why US equities will continue to do well RELATIVE to other asset classes. they will be first to rise rates, dollar will continue to rise, their economy will outperform and the rest of the world looks like its not getting any better (capital flight). therefore US equities is simply just a no brainer IMO. its liquid, has depth, internationally traded, earns a yield and is transparent. no other asset class has all this.

i personally would own 100% US equities if i had the balls and if i didnt own my property.

I see that reasoning, 100% us would be extreme though. There's no doubt that Asia is the rising force, those economies will continue to grow and most currencies are tied to the dollar, either explicitly or by a looser convention. As to whether that growth will feed through to the stock markets and be available to foreign investors is another question, openness and liquidity is a good thing but no country has a duty to foreign investors above their own citizens.

economic

bigadaj wrote: »

I see that reasoning, 100% us would be extreme though. There's no doubt that Asia is the rising force, those economies will continue to grow and most currencies are tied to the dollar, either explicitly or by a looser convention. As to whether that growth will feed through to the stock markets and be available to foreign investors is another question, openness and liquidity is a good thing but no country has a duty to foreign investors above their own citizens.

i believe the next crisis will be the rise in dollar and a major change in global monetary system. no pegs (strict or otherwise) has ever worked. look at swiss peg for example. theres so many others. gold standard was effetively a peg too.

china will rise in power but in time. for now US will be the place for capital to go to. eventually this will turn to china but not yet.

yes 100% US is ballsy like i said. but if you look globally you will see that actually US stocks look like a good invesment even now. im not saying that because i own some. i am saying it from an unbiased view that sees the world for what it is at teh moment.

Dird

kidmugsy wrote: »

Look at closed-end companies i.e. Investment Trusts/Investment Companies, or REITs.
Avoid open-end funds i.e. Unit Trusts/OEICs.

Why avoid unit trusts? GB00BPFJCF57 is identified as a unit trust but I guess you mean the ones who invest in property directly?

bigadaj

economic wrote: »

i believe the next crisis will be the rise in dollar and a major change in global monetary system. no pegs (strict or otherwise) has ever worked. look at swiss peg for example. theres so many others. gold standard was effetively a peg too.

china will rise in power but in time. for now US will be the place for capital to go to. eventually this will turn to china but not yet.

yes 100% US is ballsy like i said. but if you look globally you will see that actually US stocks look like a good invesment even now. im not saying that because i own some. i am saying it from an unbiased view that sees the world for what it is at teh moment.

The success of a peg is dependent on the relationship. It works for Hong Kong and Singapore because they are small trading economies, who knows they may change and follow the yuan in a few decades, depends how the world economy develops. The renminbi is pegged to the dollar within a trading range, the big arguments have come about with the Chinese being accused by the yanks of holding down their currency value for exporting purposes. In some ways this is a cost to teh Chinese but one they are prepared to accept, particularly when they are largely financing the us budget deficit. We've no historic experience of a centrally planned economy being successful so there's no real precedent, so long as the communist party provide slow and steady increase in wealth for the majority then it appears sustainable.

Interesting use of the term ballsy, it's certainly high risk, as to whether that's successful or wise we will see in time. I'm not sure that I'd call us shares a good investment, maybe less bad than most of the alternatives. Some will argue against whether it is wise to commit to the us for the whole of your investments, that's up to you and good luck.

darkidoe

economic wrote: »

yes i agree and is the main reason why US equities will continue to do well RELATIVE to other asset classes. they will be first to rise rates, dollar will continue to rise, their economy will outperform and the rest of the world looks like its not getting any better (capital flight). therefore US equities is simply just a no brainer IMO. its liquid, has depth, internationally traded, earns a yield and is transparent. no other asset class has all this.

i personally would own 100% US equities if i had the balls and if i didnt own my property.

If I live and work in the US, then I would go for 100% US Equity as well. For the simplicity of it.

mmo_2

Thanks everyone. That is very interesting discussion. May being in power, my gut feeling is that she will be really good at negotiating with eu and uk will also have access to rest of the world. Recent falls in property and pound prices are driven by people's fear and economic vicious cycle.

I will put some amount initially and keep drip feeding the ETF whenever there is a dip or money.

Thrugelmir

economic wrote: »

yes i agree and is the main reason why US equities will continue to do well RELATIVE to other asset classes.

My concern is that around 20% of all buying activity is companies back their own shares. As cheap to finance buybacks with debt. Everything is not always what it might seen.

economic

Thrugelmir wrote: »

My concern is that around 20% of all buying activity is companies back their own shares. As cheap to finance buybacks with debt. Everything is not always what it might seen.

that is true however they are usually companies with already strong balance sheets so im not overly concerned about this. the main reason why they do this is because there are no investment opportunities for these companies as the economy is so dire. also this is a reason to be bullish as well.

everyone is so pessmistic about the US stock market that i really dont see a crash as there are simply not enough ppl buying yet. i think the bull market can go on alot higher from here.