The UK and the EU 23rd June 2020

michaels

What will actually happen and when?

Edit: Based on the results so far no one seems to know what they were voting for / against....

Yolina

Handbag fight at dawn?

Option 1 on the grounds that if Article 50 isn't invoked for another couple of years then the UK will still be in the negotiation phase in June 2020 and therefore no change.

michaels

Yolina wrote: »

Handbag fight at dawn?

Option 1 on the grounds that if Article 50 isn't invoked for another couple of years then the UK will still be in the negotiation phase in June 2020 and therefore no change.

Oops - I choose 2020 on the basis that if we were going to do anything we would have done it by then....

Thrugelmir

Doesn't require a trade agreement to do business with a company in another country.

Rinoa

I'd prefer no trade agreement.

However, I voted for Free Trade with FOM as I suspect we'll buckle to allow us to continue with financial services.

LHW99

Since the EU wants us to trigger article 50 NOW, and we want to wait until at least there's a new PM, I'm assuming that it will be triggered by the end of 2017 at the latest, so we should know what we have by 2020.

michaels

So now we have the runners and riders for the Tory party leadership (and thus next PM), what do we think might happen?

Crabbe and Javid - pro EU so possibly in as now, in with some small concession on FOM or Out a la Norway.

Gove - Out, preferably with trade agreement but no FOM most important factor so out with no deal equally possible

May - Not quite as pro as Crabbe so either in with slightly limited FOM or our with Norway model

Leadstrom - not sure, obviously she was a strong campaigner for out so probably closer to Gove than Crabbe but perhaps not willing to accept no trade agreement?

Presumably in their pitches they will give their positions although the first round is pitching to Tory MPs and only in the run off do Tory party members get a say.

HornetSaver

The poll does not currently give a majority for any one option, but the most likely outcome seems so obvious as to make me curious as to other people's rationales.

There'll of course be a trade agreement of sorts with the EU, and it's clear from the EU's negotiations with countries larger than our own that any agreement involving free movement of capital would involve the free movement of labour (albeit I'm sure we could successfully negotiate some caveats, such as benefits restrictions, criminal record checks, and only being able to buy one residential property).

wotsthat

My option (not on the list) EU trade agreement with restricted freedom of movement. Maybe an agreement to free movement but with other barriers to entry - qualifying limits for benefits or something like that. I believe we can do that as EU members already so maybe we can go further as IUK.

Might placate the right.

michaels

HornetSaver wrote: »

The poll does not currently give a majority for any one option, but the most likely outcome seems so obvious as to make me curious as to other people's rationales.

There'll of course be a trade agreement of sorts with the EU, and it's clear from the EU's negotiations with countries larger than our own that any agreement involving free movement of capital would involve the free movement of labour (albeit I'm sure we could successfully negotiate some caveats, such as benefits restrictions, criminal record checks, and only being able to buy one residential property).

wotsthat wrote: »

My option (not on the list) EU trade agreement with restricted freedom of movement. Maybe an agreement to free movement but with other barriers to entry - qualifying limits for benefits or something like that. I believe we can do that as EU members already so maybe we can go further as IUK.

Might placate the right.

Sorry guys, don't seem to be able to add another option to the poll. I can see where you are coming from though, complete FOM will be a pretty hard sell and no trade deal is high risk so some form of compromise so the EU can claim they have not relaxed single market = freedom of movement but the UK can claim immigration restrictions does sound like a likely compromise deal.

HornetSaver

michaels wrote: »

Sorry guys, don't seem to be able to add another option to the poll. I can see where you are coming from though, complete FOM will be a pretty hard sell and no trade deal is high risk so some form of compromise so the EU can claim they have not relaxed single market = freedom of movement but the UK can claim immigration restrictions does sound like a likely compromise deal.

I think the poll is sufficient to cover that eventuality.

Freedom of movement, to me, means that any law-abiding EU citizen would continue to have the right to live and work in the UK. Two of the caveats I have mentioned are areas on which either the UK or Switzerland have successfully negotiated on in the past.