Deutsche Bank toxic derivative losses

AG47

gagahouse wrote: »

It would take too long and be beyond your capacity for understanding. The fact you constantly quote gross notional totals as 'exposures' which are not net exposures proves you have zero understanding of how derivatives work, what type of derivatives exist or what regulators have done since 2008 to avoid another AIG counterparty contagion failure.

You also seem to believe the govt and central banks will do the opposite of what they've always done in these situations which is to bail out the SIFI's no matter what and not repeat the mistake of 2008 by letting Lehman's burn.

Would DB going down be bad? Yes. Would it lead to Armageddon? Complete fantasy.

Would it cause Armageddon? Depends what you mean. I think a run a the banks is Armageddon but you must be thinking about something else.

It's so easy to argue that I could explain it but you wouldn't understand. This totally discredits you.

The fact is Angela has stated that they will it bail out DB, this is no surprise because the German people will not stand for it given their history over there.

Bail in is the next option on the table.

AG47

DB are limiting withdrawals as we speak, they still have something around €30 billion of depositors funds. And they are not letting the depositors withdraw any more than a few hundred at a time.

The big worry is that contagion spreads all around the world and smart people want to take their funds out of any bank or institution for fear of bail ins.

AG47

Germany's Merkel cannot afford to bail out Deutsche Bank: media

But DB can do a bail in.....

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-deutsche-bank-idUSKCN1213D5

theEnd

gagahouse wrote: »

It would take too long and be beyond your capacity for understanding. The fact you constantly quote gross notional totals as 'exposures' which are not net exposures proves you have zero understanding of how derivatives work, what type of derivatives exist or what regulators have done since 2008 to avoid another AIG counterparty contagion failure.

You also seem to believe the govt and central banks will do the opposite of what they've always done in these situations which is to bail out the SIFI's no matter what and not repeat the mistake of 2008 by letting Lehman's burn.

Would DB going down be bad? Yes. Would it lead to Armageddon? Complete fantasy.

^^^ This.

At the moment DB are suffering from low/no profits, a poorly managed risk profile on their derivatives exposure and undefined (possibly large) fines from historical behaviour.

Very quickly this could turn into (might already have started) a run on the bank. In that scenario, DB quickly becomes illiquid, but they're entitled to go to the ECB as lender of last resort, it's the whole point of a central bank.

The convertible bonds are designed for capital adequacy issues or insolvency. Although DB won't want to go down that route (looks very bad) it's what the bonds are designed for. I gather they're going fairly cheap at the moment!!

Future for the bank and the bond holders looks bleak, but there's no global financial issues likely to cause immediate insolvency or expose their derivative mismanagement.

More likely to be a long, slow death. Probably big mergers soon.

Thrugelmir

theEnd wrote: »

More likely to be a long, slow death. Probably big mergers soon.

Demergers more likely. Big is no longer beautiful.

AG47

Demergers will just make the situation far worse

AG47

Not only are the "signs" pointing to the collapse of the Global Fiat Monetary System... the FACTS and EVENTS are pointing to it too. Things are happening with the Saudi asset dump and the Deutsche Bank forced collapse which will both, separately or in tandem, cause a global melt down of the ENTIRE system.

Here are two very good interviews from some very smart people that had never been on the "Total Collapse" Road...until now!

Armstrong: The Next Great Depression will be a Collapse of Bonds
https://youtu.be/sQwwgxnmcc8

Sinclair: The Most Dangerous Period in History...Is Today!
https://youtu.be/VCr-qCFtdCI

AG47

10/2/2016 Update: Deutsche "Rumor" Shattered

I hate to say "I told you so" but "I TOLD YOU SO!!"

Deutsche Bank Hasn't Even Started the $14B Negotiation
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-02/about-deutsche-settlement-rumor-cryan-hasnt-even-started-negotiations-doj

And while repeated attempts by the likes of Reuters to get additional information from either the DOJ, the German government or Deutsche Bank itself, have proven fruitless, overnight Frankfurter Allegemeine Zeitung reported that Deutsche Bank executives are heading to the United States in the coming days to negotiate the $14 billion settlement over a fine the infamous $14 billion for misselling RMBS.

The FAZ did not cite any sources for its report. Deutsche Bank did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Chief Executive John Cryan's travel plans.

In other words, not only was the $5.6 billion "agreed upon" number, as "reported" by Twitter and then AFP, bogus, but the actual negotiations have not yet even begun.

It also means that the catalyst for Friday's ramp was, as we suspected, nothing but the latest attempt at media manipulation meant to push DB stock higher and prevent a concerned German population from pulling its cash out of the bank, of which DB has well over €300 billion in retail deposits.

END

Word is that Jim Cramer was the one that started the rumor so I have a question...

Where the F*%#@K is the SEC?!!

Starting false rumors is absolutely against the law so Jim Cramer belongs in jail!!

In the past I'd say "not a chance" but today is different. Today the Good Guys WANT to take down the system so there may be some charges coming as the system collapses next week.

We will see.

theEnd

Zerohedge is not a real news source.

It's fun, but just clickbait.
It's written by a fictional character from Fight Club!

Thrugelmir

AG47 wrote: »

10/2/2016 Update: Deutsche "Rumor" Shattered

I hate to say "I told you so" but "I TOLD YOU SO!!"

I doubt anyone who understands business is in the slightest surprised. Little point in blowing constant hot air until DB make their formal rebuttal. Which one assumes they've 60 or 90 days in which to do so.