Deutsche Bank toxic derivative losses

vivatifosi

AG47 wrote: »

I hear DB finally being talked about on the BBC, but they tried to play it down, not too big a deal, don't look too close.

This is one of the largest stories in the fi ancial world, they can't keep people's attention away much longer.

I heard them talking about this on R4 this morning. I don't think they played it down though. They talked about different scenarios. They also suggested that Landesbank may be more problematic.

Thrugelmir

vivatifosi wrote: »

I heard them talking about this on R4 this morning. I don't think they played it down though. They talked about different scenarios. They also suggested that Landesbank may be more problematic.

Landesbank are second tier banks. All state owned. Depositors will suffer a haircut.

Everyone seems to have forgotten that the entire UK banking system was at a the point in collapse in 2008. In 48 hours over a weekend. The matter was resolved. Shareholders took the full brunt.

AG47

vivatifosi wrote: »

I heard them talking about this on R4 this morning. I don't think they played it down though. They talked about different scenarios. They also suggested that Landesbank may be more problematic.

They didn't mention they are leveraged 10,000:1 on their toxic derivatives, and this will become a problem that can't be down played or ignored when they can't postpone and hold off the credit rating downgrade my longer.

The credit rating agencies are losing any credibility they had left.

It's now openly stupid the high credit rating that DB still has,

It's akin to an obese chain smoking alcoholic man in a council flat on benefits with no qualifications having serval credit cards all maxed out and overdrafts and loans, and still holding a triple A credit score:rotfl:

Thrugelmir

Seems as if RBS is shortly going to be hit with a substantial fine by US regulators for their part in mortgage selling. The bad news just keeps on coming.

Conrad

Thrugelmir wrote: »

I think that some other EU member states will have something to say about that. Given the treatment that Merkel herself dished out when their were in trouble.

Commerzbank Germany's second largest bank isn't particularly financially healthy either. Further 9,000 job cuts announced yesterday.

Seems as if the shine is coming off the German economy. In that VW's problems are no where near finished.

In The Indy today the Remoaner commenters are as ever all hysterical, today because the Italian PM has said the UK wont get what it wants, and yet I just cannot see German companies and their workers taking a hit by increasing the price of their exports due to tariffs especially in view of current German troubles as you mention, let alone French farmers stomaching loosing UK supermarket contracts or them having to swallow the cost of the tariffs (there are plenty alternative sources of wheat, cheese, apples and wine to include our own!).


If you want to have fun, post a few pro Brexit comments in the Indy as I find they enrage the terrified Bremoaniacs there, every inch the establishment liberal types. They've told me for ages the UK is a laughing stock and going down the pan and yet in the Indy today is an article on the influx of EU students leading to accommodation shortages, lol

Thrugelmir

Conrad wrote: »

In The Indy today the Remoaner commenters are as ever all hysterical, today because the Italian PM has said the UK wont get what it wants, and yet I just cannot see German companies and their workers taking a hit by increasing the price of their exports due to tariffs especially in view of current German troubles as you mention, let alone French farmers stomaching loosing UK supermarket contracts or them having to swallow the cost of the tariffs (there are plenty alternative sources of wheat, cheese, apples and wine to include our own!).


If you want to have fun, post a few pro Brexit comments in the Indy as I find they enrage the terrified Bremoaniacs there, every inch the establishment liberal types. They've told me for ages the UK is a laughing stock and going down the pan and yet in the Indy today is an article on the influx of EU students leading to accommodation shortages, lol

If a banking crisis were to occur in Europe. Could the Euro survive. That must be the question now.

theEnd

If DB does go down it'll be interesting to see if any of the changes made since 2008 will help things.

I think it won't be as bad. Banks have been hugely reducing their derivative positions. Hedging, clearing and margins have been tightened. With EMIR it *should* be easy to analyse the systemic risk and it *should* be quite low.

The shareholders and a lot of the bondholders will be wiped out.

Thrugelmir

Commerzbank have announced the suspension of dividends. Seems as if things are beginning to unravel.

Crashy_Time

AG47 wrote: »

They didn't mention they are leveraged 10,000:1 on their toxic derivatives, and this will become a problem that can't be down played or ignored when they can't postpone and hold off the credit rating downgrade my longer.

The credit rating agencies are losing any credibility they had left.

It's now openly stupid the high credit rating that DB still has,

It's akin to an obese chain smoking alcoholic man in a council flat on benefits with no qualifications having serval credit cards all maxed out and overdrafts and loans, and still holding a triple A credit score:rotfl:

It`s similar to that man "owning" half a dozen BTL`s , or worse
:rotfl:

Moby_Tide

AG47 wrote: »

And what about all the winners to the €75 trillion derivatives losses? If they can't be paid then that's another €75 trillion losses on top of DBs toxic losses..

AG47 wrote: »

Once the downgrade is official it will start a cascade of collateral calls in their $55T derivative book that they will be unable to cover.

Surely on the basis that between the 9th and 19th of September they managed to shave $20T off their notional derivative losses that you manage the book for, by mid October they are well on the way to a $??T profit?