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Deutsche Bank toxic derivative losses

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Comments

  • adindas
    adindas Posts: 6,856 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Name Dropper
    We have been hearing this story since June 2016. I was hoping that one of the German biggest bank to go into administration so the UK would have had a stronger negotiation power with brexit deal ...

    Well, nothing happen to deutsche Bank and German economy still strong .....
  • Thrugelmir
    Thrugelmir Posts: 89,546 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    Electrum wrote: »
    The knock on effect will make other dominos fall on larger ones and again and again.

    RBS was the largest bank in the world at the point of collapse. Didn't cause other banks to fail.

    The UK operation of Lehmans was bought by Barclays and traded out profitability.

    Not as black and white as it may appear.
  • AG47
    AG47 Posts: 1,618 Forumite
    Saturday? This is the weekend where they add the RMB to the SDR and do a few other sneaky things. Hmmmm...

    Yep, it's all happening this weekend. There are More Nails in the Deutsche Bank Coffin too.

    Deutsche Bank is the "Too Big To Fail" that is being offered up like a lamb to the slaughter.

    On Friday a US Judge did not give the traditional stamp of approval to the CFTC's settlement over DB's swap reporting scam. The judge said the settlement was "bereft" of any details showing it was fair, reasonable, adequate and in the public interest.

    Deutsche Bank Slips as Judge Wants CFTC to Justify Settlement
    http://www.kentuckypostnews.com/deutsche-bank-slips-as-judge-wants-cftc-to-justify-settlement-with-bank-nysedb/185868/

    Hmm. Do you see a change in the tide here? First the US Justice Dept dropping a $14B settlement offer on them and now they are not letting DB pay their way out of a fraud case.

    And then today Germany's hench-woman, Angela Merkel, ruled out any state bailout for Deutsche Bank...

    Merkel Rules out Bailout for Deutsche Bank
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-24/merkel-rules-out-bailout-deutsche-bank-depositor-bail-coming

    Yes, this is happening at the worst possible time for Deutsche Bank as all S&P needed was the removal of the State Sponsorship to unleash their downgrade.

    Expect to see DB downgraded before Friday thus crashing their stock price and triggering the COCO Bond conversion at the end of the 3rd quarter.
    Nothing has been fixed since 2008, it was just pushed into the future
  • Thrugelmir
    Thrugelmir Posts: 89,546 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    AG47 wrote: »
    And then today Germany's hench-woman, Angela Merkel, ruled out any state bailout for Deutsche Bank...

    Has the bank asked for state aid?
  • AG47
    AG47 Posts: 1,618 Forumite
    edited 25 September 2016 at 1:12PM
    Thrugelmir wrote: »
    Has the bank asked for state aid?

    Not officially, but don't need to, it's obvious at would be one thing to try, lots of people are comparing to northern rock or bank of Scotland

    Well that's not going to happen now?
    Nothing has been fixed since 2008, it was just pushed into the future
  • AG47
    AG47 Posts: 1,618 Forumite
    It's looking the the coco bonds will be triggered when the next downgrade can't be postponed any longer. The whole rating agencies are in crisis of confidence, look how they are still rating DB? They will lose all credibility if they don't downgrade soon.
    Nothing has been fixed since 2008, it was just pushed into the future
  • This you know how?

    It depends how you define 'big trouble' It's certainly looking pretty dire.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-26/deutsche-bank-slumps-to-fresh-record-low-on-capital-concerns
  • AG47
    AG47 Posts: 1,618 Forumite
    This is for all the marbles and they have set it up perfectly targeting the world's most systemically unstable bank...Deutsche Bank.

    A Crashing Deutsche Bank Scrambles to Assure Markets It's Fine
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-26/crashing-deutsche-bank-scrambles-assure-markets-it-fine

    With Deutsche Bank stock plunging to fresh all time lows in early trading after Merkel reportedly ruled out state aid the embattled German lender, the bank found itself in the unenviable position of once again having to defend its balance sheet to avoid further stock price declines, especially as doubts mounted if the German government response was due to a pre-emptive request for aid. DB quickly tried to squash such speculation when a bank spokesman said that "CEO John Cryan at no point asked the German Chancellor for the government to intervene in the U.S. Justice Department's mortgages case."



    He added that Deutsche Bank will solve its problems without relying on help from Berlin, Germany's flagship lender said on Monday.



    The market remains unconvinced: shares in Germany's biggest bank hit a record low of 10.62 euros on Monday.
    Nothing has been fixed since 2008, it was just pushed into the future
  • AG47
    AG47 Posts: 1,618 Forumite
    It depends how you define 'big trouble' It's certainly looking pretty dire.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-26/deutsche-bank-slumps-to-fresh-record-low-on-capital-concerns

    Chancellor Angela Merkel has ruled out state aid for Deutsche Bank ahead of national elections in September 2017, Focus magazine reported, citing unidentified government officials. The German leader also declined to step into the bank’s legal imbroglio with the Justice Department, the magazine reported.
    Nothing has been fixed since 2008, it was just pushed into the future
  • AG47
    AG47 Posts: 1,618 Forumite
    Deutsche Bank on Death Watch - Roota's Timing Couldn't Be Better!

    News that the US Justice Department is asking for $14B from Deutsche Bank has sent the already wobbly derivative bank into free fall mode!

    Deutsche Bonds "Dropping Like A Stone" As 'Most Dangerous Bank In The World' Plummets
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-16/deutsche-bonds-dropping-stone-most-dangerous-bank-world-plummets

    "Deutsche Bank AG's riskiest bonds plummeted after the German lender received a $14 billion claim from the U.S. Justice Department to settle an investigation into the firm's sale of residential mortgage-backed securities."

    "They are dropping like a stone," said Tomas Kinmonth, a credit strategist at ABN Amro Bank NV in Amsterdam. "The fine, even if reduced, could surpass all provisions held by the bank

    "They are dropping like a stone," warns one European credit strategist as signals from the bottom of Deutsche Bank's capital structure signal a "huge increase in the potential for a coupon skip."

    "With DB stock tumbling towards record lows again..."

    "Back to an EUR11 handle...biggest drop since Brexit"

    "Bloomberg reports, the bank's 1.75 billion euros ($2 billion) of 6% additional Tier 1 bonds, the first notes to take losses in a crisis, are crashing... as the world's most systemically dangerous bank faces existential problems once again."

    END

    So what was Deutsche Bank's response to the Justice Department's settlement offer..."HELL NO! Not even close to $14B!"

    Deutsche Bank Rebuffs U.S. Over $14 Billion Mortgage Settlement
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-15/deutsche-bank-asked-to-pay-14-billion-in-u-s-probe-wsj-says

    Deutsche Bank AG said it won't pay the $14 billion sought by the U.S. Justice Department to settle an investigation into the firm's sale of residential mortgage-backed securities, a figure that's more than triple what some analysts estimated could be a potential worst-case.

    "Deutsche Bank has no intent to settle these potential civil claims anywhere near the number cited," the company said in a statement early Friday in Frankfurt. "The negotiations are only just beginning. The bank expects that they will lead to an outcome similar to those of peer banks which have settled at materially lower amounts."

    Germany's largest lender confirmed that it had started negotiations with the Justice Department to settle civil claims the U.S. may consider over the bank's issuing and underwriting of residential mortgage-backed securities from 2005 to 2007. The $14 billion is considered an "opening bid" that could go "much lower," according to the Wall Street Journal, which reported the figure shortly before Deutsche Bank issued its statement.

    END

    Ok. So DB is now at war with the US market manipulation machine
    Nothing has been fixed since 2008, it was just pushed into the future
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