The Vote - the mechanics of it all....

padington

When the big banks start betting on their private exit polls, what's the key webpage to watch to see which way the markets are betting? Or is it just eyes on Sterling generally?

PixelPound

Listening to a radio program about this, the key times will be
10pm polls close
12.30 (or just after) first declarations, probably Sunderland and a couple of London boroughs and Scottish area
Around 4am enough areas declared to give a good indication of which side has won, unless its close
Around 7am enough areas declared to decisively say who has won (unless incredibly close)
Final count tallies will come later.

Unlike General Election I believe all areas start counting straight away (not like some who in GE start in the morning)

Out,_Vile_Jelly

I was fortunate enough to be born into an apolitical household, meaning I've never really known how my parents vote and was pretty much a blank slate at my first election. My parents don't have strong political views and don't always vote. They are however basing a weekend away around voting this Thursday, which I find interesting as they wouldn't normally bother. I wonder if there are a significant number who are not normally politically active (often because our system effectively renders their vote worthless) who are going to make the effort on Thurs. Turnout and voting by region is going to be very interesting.

Generali

padington wrote: »

When the big banks start betting on their private exit polls, what's the key webpage to watch to see which way the markets are betting? Or is it just eyes on Sterling generally?

Sterling is likely to be a good proxy: up a bit or flat = remain, big falls = someone thinks they know it's Brexit.

Other pointers would be German Bund and US Treasury yields: falling yield (rising price) = Brexit.

I'd imagine that domestic UK banks would be particularly badly hit on a Brexit vote and maybe Santander the worst of all being the most (I suspect) UK & EU bank.

Cross border stuff (EDF for example) I'd expect to be hit. Actually EDF might be a bit torn between a dash for safety (utility) and cross border/EU trading asset.

Safety (utilities, Sin Stocks) should do better than risk stocks (interwebs).

tincans6

Generali wrote: »

Well the polls close at 10pm I believe which is 7am my time on Friday morning with a declaration expected at about 7-8am your time which is 4-5pm mine. That sounds a lot like my working day hours. Time to listen to the old cats whisker to hear a lot of tired Poms talking !!!!!!.

Curiously none of the broadcasters have commissioned an exit poll.

The 2015 election exit poll was pretty accurate (much more than the polls) but underestimated Tory seats a little.

Yolina

I won't bother to stay up for any of it. What sickens me, other than the months of mud-slinging we've had to put up with from both sides, is that so many people who can vote won't even bother to whilst I don't get a say despite having been in the UK for nearly 25 years.

kabayiri

Carl31 wrote: »

Friday will be an interesting, and potentially sickening, day

I think ill close myself off from the media if the vote is to remain, not sure I can put up with DC and GO being smug all day, they have really annoyed me throughout this referendum build up

If Leave win Osborne will punish us all with an emergency budget.

If Remain win Osborne will celebrate this with an emergency budget.

What can I say?! The guy loves a budget.

In months to come any poor economic indicators will be blamed on the referendum, conveniently forgetting who actually offered the darned thing in the first place.

Generali

kabayiri wrote: »

If Leave win Osborne will punish us all with an emergency budget.

If Remain win Osborne will celebrate this with an emergency budget.

What can I say?! The guy loves a budget.

In months to come any poor economic indicators will be blamed on the referendum, conveniently forgetting who actually offered the darned thing in the first place.

The chances are inward investment figures will fall off a cliff in the next year or two. There's a big lag between deciding to build a factory and building one.

I noticed someone on here promoting inward investment figures as showing that Brexit wasn't economically important. I suspect that even if Remain wins you'll get a bit of Brexit-lite biting you over the next couple of years, especially in industrial regions.

Shakethedisease

padington wrote: »

When the big banks start betting on their private exit polls, what's the key webpage to watch to see which way the markets are betting? Or is it just eyes on Sterling generally?

With the Scottish ref I knew about 10 mins after the polls closed we'd lost. The ticker at the bottom of the BBC program showing the £ rising and odds for a Yes vote drifting well out told me all I needed to know. I was in bed after the first regional result came in ( a No win ) at about 1am.

Generali

Shakethedisease wrote: »

With the Scottish ref I knew about 10 mins after the polls closed we'd lost. The ticker at the bottom of the BBC program showing the £ rising and odds for a Yes vote drifting well out told me all I needed to know. I was in bed after the first regional result came in ( a No win ) at about 1am.

The advantage of using the FX markets as an indicator is that they are liquid 24 hours a day, especially Cable (£/$).