Why do you think the housing market has slowed - referendum?

ElsieMonkey

The market in the SE (I'm selling in London but buying on the SE coast in Kent) just seems so slow at the moment! There's hardly anything coming on the market for sale.

Luckily we have sold our property and pretty much ready to exchange, and we're moving into rented. 3 weeks ago we had an offer accepted on a property in Kent, but the vendor of that house still needs to find somewhere to move onto herself. I'm getting a bit concerned about how quickly she will be able to find somewhere since there's not much coming onto the market at all at the moment, has been like that for the last couple of months now I'd say. She's also only looking for shared ownership which is worrying me as that narrows her options considerably. I'm also worried that, if she doesn't find anything to move on to, we are in stuck in rented, and nothing else may come on the market for us to go for instead...

I've been carefully studying the market in London and the area I'm buying in in Kent for over a year now. Last year was a hive of activity in both areas, with prices rising. Now, marked difference, much less coming onto the market, people pushing for high prices but not getting them, properties only selling if reasonably priced, everything else being reduced...

It has me wondering why it's all gone so quiet? I know we're heading towards summer when it tends to get a bit slower anyway, but there's a marked difference from this time last year. Is it the referendum? But why would the referendum make a difference to whether someone wants to sell their property or not? Am I missing something? :think:

PasturesNew

It hasn't slowed as such ... there was a frenzy of BTL buyers rushing to beat the deadline at the end of March, which created a rush and illusion of growth.

Once the deadline passed, there were few BTL buyers even looking .... so it's gone back to "just regular buyers in the main".

My house has "gone down" in value by 4.5% in the last 2 months, but it's still "up" about 11% over when I bought it.

All figures average out, over time, you can't stick a pin in the data today and take that as what's happening.

EDIT: Oh, I just checked again (hadn't checked for a week), it's gone UP again. Highest value to date. That'll be that skewed data kicking in after the Xmas lull.

The trouble with people looking for a house is - in the main, there's never the perfect house.

thesaint

Show me the figures.

ElsieMonkey

I agree, but it is stagnating. It's like people don't want to act or commit, particularly regarding putting their properties up for sale. Wondering why? People talk about the referendum having an impact but I don't understand why or how this would stop people making decisions about whether they want to move or not??? I mean, whatever the outcome, nothing much is going to happen overnight to house prices is it...or is it???!

brit1234

The slump started about a year ago in central London when foreign buyers started to pull out due to Russian sanctions and far East slowdown with its capital controls as well as stamp duty changes for top end properties. It was the foreign buyers pushing up prices and pushing people further out rippling price rises in South East. Now they are going price falls are rippling out from central London now.

Then there is also the big buy to let tax changes, buy to let mortgage clamp down, landlord and second owner higher stamp duty charges.

The housing bubble has simply run out of sources of money to keep them this high. Prices had to start falling to more affordable levels some time and it looks like it is now. The Brexit campaign just adds more to this.

Hoploz

Things have definitely cooled at the moment, you're right.

Your seller may find the right house comes on next week, or next year, it's impossible to know how picky she is, but if it's only a shared ownership property she will be buying then I'd say that is going to seriously narrow the field. I think you should keep looking elsewhere. (Or she could go into rented herself if she is the one holding up the chain?!)

I'm in Surrey and had an EA round last week. He told me the bottom end is still active, but there's a definite cooling at the top end of £1m+ where people often don't need to move. The people at this end are waiting. He said for the referendum.

sheff6107

Nobody buys to let around me, yet the market has ground to a halt here since March. So I think the BTL thing is an irrelevance in a lot of areas.

Any uncertainty puts the brakes on, even a general election. I'd say the EU thing is even more of an issue - why buy now when prices could well tumble in a few months?

iantojones40

The stock levels in my area (NW) started falling significantly at the beginning of 2015 and have seen consistent MoM falls ever since, theres now less than half the number of houses on the market than there was this time 2 years ago!

Never quite figured what has caused it.

ElsieMonkey

sheff6107 wrote: »

Nobody buys to let around me, yet the market has ground to a halt here since March. So I think the BTL thing is an irrelevance in a lot of areas.

Any uncertainty puts the brakes on, even a general election. I'd say the EU thing is even more of an issue - why buy now when prices could well tumble in a few months?

But why would people think prices are going to tumble once we know the outcome of the referendum? That's what I'm not getting...maybe I'm being a bit thick here lol

ElsieMonkey

Hoploz wrote: »

Things have definitely cooled at the moment, you're right.

Your seller may find the right house comes on next week, or next year, it's impossible to know how picky she is, but if it's only a shared ownership property she will be buying then I'd say that is going to seriously narrow the field. I think you should keep looking elsewhere. (Or she could go into rented herself if she is the one holding up the chain?!)

I'm in Surrey and had an EA round last week. He told me the bottom end is still active, but there's a definite cooling at the top end of £1m+ where people often don't need to move. The people at this end are waiting. He said for the referendum.

Yes we are still keeping an eye out in case something we like as much comes up and will be a quicker transaction such as chain free. We're also not going to spend out on a survey until she has had an offer accepted on somewhere too. I am secretly hoping she will just go into rented tbh! But it's only been 3 weeks so far so I thought i'd give it another few weeks before suggesting that and applying more pressure. It's a difficult balance because we don't want to apply too much pressure in case she pulls out, we loose the house and there's nothing else on the market for us anyway! My concern has always been she's narrowing her options drastically by wanting shared ownership, you're right

What I don't understand is why people feel they need to wait for the referendum?! What's there to wait for? Whatever the result life is going to go on as we know it, at least for another few years (should there be a brexit). I feel like I'm missing something here...?!

Oh well, maybe if prices do suddenly fall, maybe I'll be in a good position, sold mine, money in bank and renting, in good position to get a bargain (should my current purchase not go through)? Downside is less people will be selling since they might feel they might not get as much as they would like...

nickyg2000

The housing market is mostly sentiment driven. when prices are stupidly high like now it doesn't take much for them to turn south. Then when they fall people stop saying its because were not building enough houses.