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Has Crashy and co finally come to their senses...
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Graaaaaahaaaaammmmmmmmmm!!!!!0
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Current odds on betfair for stay are 1.42, which is 70% implied probability.
As you have probably already noticed that price is currently 1.69/2.42, so it is now about 59%/41%, getting much closer!Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one birdThe only time Chuck Norris was wrong was when he thought he had made a mistakeChuck Norris puts the "laughter" in "manslaughter".I've started running again, after several injuries had forced me to stop0 -
The poor are voting out in their droves in London, I work with the long term unemployed, homeless, disenfranchised, they are all really committed Bexiters, I've never seen anything like it. I know they won't vote as much as everyone but from the ground, there seems to be a sea change. I wonder if the gamblers have failed to appreciate the new wind on this one.
It's a different vote to the general election, not many referendums have been played out to learn from after all. Also the brexiters are more likely to bother voting, they seem slightly possessed.
The odds have changed quite a bit in the last 24 hours, currently on betfair it is 59%/41% (1.69/2.42), I think that you are right about people being less lethargic over this, a lot of people have real personal axes to grind (i.e. from legitimate concern over places at schools to outright racism) there is more motivation.
When it comes down to it though, perhaps the many undecided will play it safe and stick with the devil that they know, rather than risk the unknown. That is an 'ace up the sleeve' that the remain camp has, how telling it will be, remains to be seen, but I think that is probably why the odds are a bit different to the polls. I think the undecided are more likely to vote remain.Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one birdThe only time Chuck Norris was wrong was when he thought he had made a mistakeChuck Norris puts the "laughter" in "manslaughter".I've started running again, after several injuries had forced me to stop0 -
Malthusian wrote: »Steel workers and BHS are a few measly tens of thousands, irrelevant in a referendum of millions. And their losing their jobs had nothing to do with the EU anyway. True, that doesn't mean they won't vote Leave, in fact they are classic "vote for change" candidates. But I said the status quo was in too strong a position and I was taking the minority who have recently lost good steady jobs into account. I don't doubt that they're miffed, there's just not enough of them for "vote for change" to beat "vote for what we've got".
Public sector workers - not sure who you are referring to but in general their discontent will be balanced with the fact that they identify the Leave vote with the wicked Tories.
The unemployment rate in this country is 5%. Most people in this country are in a comfortable position and won't gamble on a vote for change. I could be wrong, which is why I'm not putting my house on a Remain vote, but I think the 70% suggested by Betfair sounds right.
Doesn't sound as if you have much day to day connection with the real world. As your views seem very fixed with a political edge.0 -
Malthusian wrote: »Unfortunately for the Brexiteers, long term unemployed and homeless are a very small minority. (Are the homeless even registered to vote?) They will be massively outvoted by the pensioners, the middle classes and the huge amorphous lump of people in Britain who are reasonably well off and don't want to gamble on anything that might upset that situation.
Betfair's odds sound about right to me, the position of the status quo is too strong.
How many pensioners have you met that are committed Europeans? In Margate, in summerset, in Swansea, in Leeds.
I'm not so sure.Proudly voted remain. A global union of countries is the only way to commit global capital to the rule of law.0 -
These 2 graphs are interesting.
If the UK is massively misinformed then why the hell is a referendum happening at all?
How much of that misinformation is due to the Daily Mail, Sun etc peddling lies every day?This is a system account and does not represent a real person. To contact the Forum Team email forumteam@moneysavingexpert.com0 -
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I dont think anybody can say with much certainty what would happen if BREXIT occurs re: house prices - it's all just guess work mostly.
That being said, as I witnessed in NI if there was to be a crash all that would happen is the vast majority of people who then found themselves in negative equity would sit and wait for an upturn and wouldn't sell the house at a loss. Therefore an awful lot of the HPC'ers would no doubt bemoan the lack of suitable properties in the market for them to spend their hard earned savings on because of all the greedy home owners.
Are the home owners hoping for an increase in the value of their home any greedier than the HPC'ers hoping that a crash occurs which causes mass bankruptcies and negative equity for other people just so they can spend a bit less on a house for themselves?I am insane and have 4 mortgages - total mortgage debt £200k. Target to zero = 10 years! (2030)0 -
hildosaver wrote: »Are the home owners hoping for an increase in the value of their home any greedier than the HPC'ers hoping that a crash occurs which causes mass bankruptcies and negative equity for other people just so they can spend a bit less on a house for themselves?
Are they greedy? In a word, yes. The problem is that there is a nationwide concept with property as an investment rather than just a home. Why should the cost of a home outstrip that of inflation by 10 times? Why should those lucky enough to own a home be automatically boosted up the social scale year after year whilst our children grow up in a very competitive job market and only those with property rich ancestors or cash rich parents are able to own a home. It's a very skewed society and it's only getting worse.0 -
Why should the cost of a home outstrip that of inflation by 10 times?
Because those are the prices the marginal buyer will pay. It's a market not a policy decision.
People who want a crash want some of that too. They just want to buy in at a cheaper level than now, in the belief that it was riskless when people did so in the past. That any reduction in buying interest connotes economic hardship doesn't bother them at all. It's all about themselves and their entitlement.
Of course in a property crash, deposit requirements go up and loan multiples go down. In a boom where a 10% deposit and 4x salary are the norm, someone with £13k and £30k a year can buy a £130k house. In a bust where the deposit now needs to be 40% and the loan can only be 2x salary, It's unaffordable anywhere above £100k. That's if anyone in such a house wants to sell in a falling market. The evidence is that unless you need to, you don't.0
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