Has Crashy and co finally come to their senses...

mwpt

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

So just like the last time around pretty much nobody would be in a position to take advantage of lower house prices anyway.

I don't know what pretty much nobody means, but at a best guess it would be about several hundred thousand people.

kilby_007

mwpt wrote: »

I don't know what pretty much nobody means, but at a best guess it would be about several hundred thousand people.

If the market crashes and we can't get a mortgage for the 4/5 bed houses we're looking at then we'll just buy whatever our 20-30% deposit will get us on a smaller property, taking advantage of the low (or normalised) prices. I imagine a lot of people will do this, start saving a deposit again and then when lending eventually gets back to normal they'll sell or rent out the smaller place and buy something bigger. Either way I think a crash would be welcome for most people currently not on the property ladder even if it means having to wait a while and buy when lending resumes.

Filo25

kilby_007 wrote: »

If the market crashes and we can't get a mortgage for the 4/5 bed houses we're looking at then we'll just buy whatever our 20-30% deposit will get us on a smaller property, taking advantage of the low (or normalised) prices. I imagine a lot of people will do this, start saving a deposit again and then when lending eventually gets back to normal they'll sell or rent out the smaller place and buy something bigger. Either way I think a crash would be welcome for most people currently not on the property ladder even if it means having to wait a while and buy when lending resumes.

What do people expect from a "crash" through, I could certainly see a smaller correction, although even that could be significant enough.

I suppose if we get a messy Brexit (far from certain even if we do vote Brexit) then there could be some drivers in place for a larger fall, but apart from that I don't really see the driver for the forced sales or significant rate increases you would really need to crash the market.

kilby_007

Filo25 wrote: »

What do people expect from a "crash" through, I could certainly see a smaller correction, although even that could be significant enough.

I suppose if we get a messy Brexit (far from certain even if we do vote Brexit) then there could be some drivers in place for a larger fall, but apart from that I don't really see the driver for the forced sales or significant rate increases you would really need to crash the market.

I don't think there will be a nationwide "crash" as such but I think you will see varying degrees of crashiness in different areas of the country depending on localised demand, sentiment and investment. It seems far fetched, but when you consider that in some areas prices have doubled in a few years, a 50% crash taking prices back to 2011 prices might not be totally unthinkable if the drivers which caused those price increases disappears. House building might alleviate supply issues. One of the drivers (BTL investment), or the lack of it, is already appartent. Any increase in mortgage interest rates could be catastrophic, given that half the nation have overstretched themselves based on the current low interest rate...

In our area prices haven't boomed and they've only slowly risen to around the same as they were before the 2007 crash, so a crash now seems unlikely but I think we will still see a small ~10% correction because house prices are still unaffordable. To buy an average 3 bed you need to be earning 2-3 times the average salary. I think the price correction has already started to happen. It's difficult to say for sure without the land registry data but most properties are seeing reductions here at the moment. I guess we'll see in the coming months!

Malthusian

padington wrote: »

The poor are voting out in their droves in London, I work with the long term unemployed, homeless, disenfranchised, they are all really committed Bexiters, I've never seen anything like it. I know they won't vote as much as everyone but from the ground, there seems to be a sea change. I wonder if the gamblers have failed to appreciate the new wind on this one.

Unfortunately for the Brexiteers, long term unemployed and homeless are a very small minority. (Are the homeless even registered to vote?) They will be massively outvoted by the pensioners, the middle classes and the huge amorphous lump of people in Britain who are reasonably well off and don't want to gamble on anything that might upset that situation.

Betfair's odds sound about right to me, the position of the status quo is too strong.

Thrugelmir

Malthusian wrote: »

Unfortunately for the Brexiteers, long term unemployed and homeless are a very small minority. (/QUOTE]

Add the over 50's who are working no hours, zero hours , part time hours or beneath their level of expertise. That's a considerable lobbying group. (Average age in the UK is 42 as a reference point). Then there's currently losing their jobs i.e. Steel workers, BHS and many in the public sector. There's a huge level of disengagement with the remain campaign. As exports and the EU have no bearing on their daily lives.

wotsthat

mwpt wrote: »

I don't know what pretty much nobody means, but at a best guess it would be about several hundred thousand people.

If last time is anything to go by you might be a bit sniffy about the beneficiaries of any crash.

If/ when the next crash arrives the HPC crew will be noting that pretty much nobody benefits ( i.e. them) because deluded sellers refuse to sell to them at HPC approved prices.

Or, it'll be the wrong sort of people benefitting like me who took the opportunity to buy a holiday home at a great discount and is now hoping for another sale. Or rich people buying houses to rent to poor people.

Maybe it'll be different next time and the righteous will be the main beneficiaries but I doubt it.

westernpromise

wotsthat wrote: »

If/ when the next crash arrives the HPC crew will be noting that pretty much nobody benefits ( i.e. them) because deluded sellers refuse to sell to them at HPC approved prices.

As indeed one of them has admitted in that very thread.

TheCountOfNowhere wrote:

when the collapse happened and the LR was at 2004 prices it was impossible to find anyone to sell a decent home to you at the price.

PixelPound

Out,_Vile_Jelly wrote: »

I thought they all had a couple of hundred k in the bank but refused to buy outright because UK houses are overpriced, small and rubbish, and the UK is such a dump generally?

We could have been (property) millionaires

Malthusian

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Add the over 50's who are working no hours, zero hours , part time hours or beneath their level of expertise. That's a considerable lobbying group. (Average age in the UK is 42 as a reference point).

Then there's currently losing their jobs i.e. Steel workers, BHS and many in the public sector.

Steel workers and BHS are a few measly tens of thousands, irrelevant in a referendum of millions. And their losing their jobs had nothing to do with the EU anyway. True, that doesn't mean they won't vote Leave, in fact they are classic "vote for change" candidates. But I said the status quo was in too strong a position and I was taking the minority who have recently lost good steady jobs into account. I don't doubt that they're miffed, there's just not enough of them for "vote for change" to beat "vote for what we've got".

Public sector workers - not sure who you are referring to but in general their discontent will be balanced with the fact that they identify the Leave vote with the wicked Tories.

The unemployment rate in this country is 5%. Most people in this country are in a comfortable position and won't gamble on a vote for change. I could be wrong, which is why I'm not putting my house on a Remain vote, but I think the 70% suggested by Betfair sounds right.