Is property in a bubble?

chucknorris

lisyloo wrote: »

Not if it involves preventable pain, time-off work or longer term issues like troublesome scar tissue.

Exactly, and because of the long delay, at best they suffered longer than otherwise necessary, and in the worst cases their condition had deteriorated during the delay awaiting treatment.

Electrum

Property is a big bubble, and the larger it gets before it pops, the ;larger the crash will be.

It would make sense to let some air out now to prevent the overshoot on the correction down.

CLAPTON

lisyloo wrote: »

Not if it involves preventable pain, time-off work or longer term issues like troublesome scar tissue.

that wouldn't constitute 'recovering' would it?
and treatment is not without un-necessary pain and sometime harm

Thrugelmir

Electrum wrote: »

Property is a big bubble, and the larger it gets before it pops, the ;larger the crash will be.

It would make sense to let some air out now to prevent the overshoot on the correction down.

What isn't in a bubble? Beating inflation isn't difficult. So there's little need for excessive risk taking.

Electrum

Thrugelmir wrote: »

What isn't in a bubble? Beating inflation isn't difficult. So there's little need for excessive risk taking.

Silver isnt in a bubble, infact its still less than half the price it was of the late 1970s, and thats non inflation adjusted

Conrad

Electrum wrote: »

Property is a big bubble, and the larger it gets before it pops, the ;larger the crash will be.

We have the odd recession and a bit of value falls away for a while, but I don't think we're due another for a few years yet.


Yes, the EU could suffer due to Banking collapse and misaligned nation level economics, or China could go pop (a big concern), but these will boost UK property thanks to the safe haven effect. I made this argument in 2010 on here saying the safe haven factor of the UK was being under-estimated and got lots of responses enquiring as to what I was taking / smoking!


A Hong Kong businessman is still likely to enjoy a total return in the double digits on a flat in Shoreditch, within the wonderfully safe landscape of the UK economy. Very hard to beat.


Brexit will not see any meaningful downturn but will illuminate massive opportunity

Electrum

That Hong Kong businessman should be smart enough to know that desperate governments tend to tax things a lot on their soil that cant be transported away, like property.

economic

Electrum wrote: »

That Hong Kong businessman should be smart enough to know that desperate governments tend to tax things a lot on their soil that cant be transported away, like property.

yes very good point. when i look at the world today and government actions i tend to see property as being easy targets. im not saying owning your own home is bad (actually it is good and has tax benefits) but buying now seems one with a lot of risks in london (uk is different). i personally think a globally diversified stock portfolio with US stocks as overweight is a good idea vs london property. its liquid, no hassle, less exposed to currency risk, transparent, can easily sell and has tax advantages over property. when the government becomes more aggresive on tax, stocks is much less likely to be a target then property.

Electrum

economic wrote: »

yes very good point. when i look at the world today and government actions i tend to see property as being easy targets. im not saying owning your own home is bad (actually it is good and has tax benefits) but buying now seems one with a lot of risks in london (uk is different). i personally think a globally diversified stock portfolio with US stocks as overweight is a good idea vs london property. its liquid, no hassle, less exposed to currency risk, transparent, can easily sell and has tax advantages over property. when the government becomes more aggresive on tax, stocks is much less likely to be a target then property.

Yes its all about looking for value. Would overseas money see value in London at current levels? :rotfl:

More likely they will be looking in Eastern Russia where University cities are looking very cheap places to buy property.

Its all about buying undervalued and selling overvalued. Easy to see which is which currently

cells

Electrum wrote: »

Yes its all about looking for value. Would overseas money see value in London at current levels? :rotfl:

More likely they will be looking in Eastern Russia where University cities are looking very cheap places to buy property.

Its all about buying undervalued and selling overvalued. Easy to see which is which currently

In dollar terms London property is not much more than it was 9 years ago. Although prices have doubled the currency has fallen by almost half from $2.1 to $1.3

And bear in mind that many currencies are linked to the dollar eg the Chinese Yuan and the Saudi currency and many more

Also economic and wage growth in many countries has been running strong. The Chinese are earning more than twice what they were in 2007 which means London affordability for them that is property price v chibee wages are far more affordable.

The story for London over the next 30 years is going to be India. Their wages will increase 20 fold in real terms and even a very small percent of those 1.5 billion people making their way to London will drive London prices even higher