Why I would be celebrating if Brexit led to lower house prices

CLAPTON

Filo25 wrote: »

That wouldn't actually lead to a smaller population on its own though, just a decrease in its growth rate.

obviously so

but I am a pragmatic person so if that's the most practical outcome then I accept that and its vastly better than the present situation

mrginge

come on people it's obvious that house prices will collapse. Demand will be non-existent since we'll be at war.

Conrad

cells wrote: »

If there is a brexit and if it leads to population growth going from +500,000 a year towards say a flat population then the north the midlands wales and perhaps even Scotland will face a fate of ever falling population and the problems that will cause. Although nationally the population would be about flat there is and will be more internal migration to London and the SE leaving rUK to face a fate of depopulation.

Sorry cells but you're falling into the age old trap of describing black or white outcomes, but the outcome of course will be grey, which is to say immigration will continue under brexit but we will operate a Canadian style points based border system and better manage who need and how many (Australia is large and can afford to take in plenty of people currently, for example)


You talk of ever falling population, but this is a bit OTT, when you consider little dynamo economies such as Estonia (growing very well since communism) have done very nicely with 2 m folk, or Iceland (bar it's Banking mess) with 330k.


Don't fall for the old school Hamish nonsense, its perfectly possible to enjoy prosperity without rapant population growth. And if you step back and think about Hamish's promised land of ever increasing population there are vast downsides - where does it all end? It's an old fashioned unimaginative response to ensuring prosperity.

mwpt

Conrad wrote: »

Don't fall for the old school Hamish nonsense, its perfectly possible to enjoy prosperity without rapant population growth. And if you step back and think about Hamish's promised land of ever increasing population there are vast downsides - where does it all end? It's an old fashioned unimaginative response to ensuring prosperity.

On this I agree with you. My intuition says it can't be possible that the only way for increasing prosperity through economic growth is through population growth. Surely the obvious way that stands out is through increasing productivity and maintaining a stable ratio of workers to non workers. Of course with increasing longevity, we will need to increase retirement ages if we maintain a stable replacement rate.

A bit of googling seems to suggest this intuition is true.

Of the arguments for or against brexit, I am least convinced by the requirement to have an increasing population.

However, the caveat is that I also think any downside of an increasing population are exaggerated.

Filo25

CLAPTON wrote: »

obviously so

but I am a pragmatic person so if that's the most practical outcome then I accept that and its vastly better than the present situation

No significant house price falls driven by population falls then.

As long as the economy is healthy compared to other western neighbours I suspect we will continue to see significant but reduced net immigration in the aftermath of Brexit, as well.

Where that amount falls between current total immigration levels and current non-EU immigration levels is anyone's guess though.

In any case it doesn't seem likely to be driving a significant increase in property affordability in the absence of large scale building.

cells

CLAPTON wrote: »

incomprehensible nonsense

there are large number of cities that would be hugely more attractive and better to live in, if we knocked down the bad bit s and enjoyed the smaller city
Cambridge, Oxford, Winchester dozen of country towns etc.
If some towns cease to exist then so what: its been happening for thousands of years.

You have made it absolutely clear you think that large is better than small, even if everyone has to live in a shoe box.
I respect your view but I doubt the vast majority of people would agree.


and as for


about sums but the absurdity.

You don't seem to understand that all it takes is a modest excess for housing to become worthless. So although you think a brexit will allow younguns to buy nice terrace homes what will happen in a static population UK is that some regions towns and cities will decline quite a lot. Those places will resemble stoke on Trent where the population is about flat over the last 20 years.

Now some people might quite like your sound bite of homes cheap enough for young ones but maybe they will be less happy with the reality of £40k for their terrace homes like in stoke.

A flat population UK your ideal will lead to reducing populations in at least half the towns and cities and regions. Those places will suffer

The idea of turning the excess homes into rubble is also a joke. Whos home do you want actually worth zero? And guess what there are some streets like that in Middleborough and the have been birded up with metal shutters for two decades if not more the idea of knocking them down to turn them into parks or nature reserves doesnt happen


So be good enough to admit your ideals of flat populations is actually in the real world London and the south continuing to grow while draining the population of the north of Wales and possible of Scotland and the Midlands too. If I lived in any of those areas I would be moving south as soon as o could in the event of a steady state uk

cells

Conrad wrote: »

Sorry cells but you're falling into the age old trap of describing black or white outcomes, but the outcome of course will be grey, which is to say immigration will continue under brexit but we will operate a Canadian style points based border system and better manage who need and how many (Australia is large and can afford to take in plenty of people currently, for example)


You talk of ever falling population, but this is a bit OTT, when you consider little dynamo economies such as Estonia (growing very well since communism) have done very nicely with 2 m folk, or Iceland (bar it's Banking mess) with 330k.


Don't fall for the old school Hamish nonsense, its perfectly possible to enjoy prosperity without rapant population growth. And if you step back and think about Hamish's promised land of ever increasing population there are vast downsides - where does it all end? It's an old fashioned unimaginative response to ensuring prosperity.

Estonia is a good example of population decline its also a good example of my point about a non uniform decline with the capital and some cities down not a lot leaving the rest of the country to face an even worse decline. If i lived there i would either emigrate or move to the capital the rCountry will suffer

CLAPTON

Filo25 wrote: »

No significant house price falls driven by population falls then.

As long as the economy is healthy compared to other western neighbours I suspect we will continue to see significant but reduced net immigration in the aftermath of Brexit, as well.

Where that amount falls between current total immigration levels and current non-EU immigration levels is anyone's guess though.

In any case it doesn't seem likely to be driving a significant increase in property affordability in the absence of large scale building.

I don't really understand your point:

Obviously, it's unlikely that on brexit day, the quantity and quality of housing will change much althought the 'remain' camp seem to be predicting massive price falls.

By stopping immigration we can stop things get worse and slowly housing availability will improve as supply increases and demand doesn't.
No magic formula just common sense and slow steady improving standards.

Whilst I recognise your acceptance that the EU's economic policies are incapable of improving the prospects of EU27 young people, after brexit the UK will be able to determine the numbers of immigrant coming there and so can choose 10s of thousand rather than 100s of thousands.

CLAPTON

cells wrote: »

You don't seem to understand that all it takes is a modest excess for housing to become worthless. So although you think a brexit will allow younguns to buy nice terrace homes what will happen in a static population UK is that some regions towns and cities will decline quite a lot. Those places will resemble stoke on Trent where the population is about flat over the last 20 years.

Now some people might quite like your sound bite of homes cheap enough for young ones but maybe they will be less happy with the reality of £40k for their terrace homes like in stoke.

A flat population UK your ideal will lead to reducing populations in at least half the towns and cities and regions. Those places will suffer

The idea of turning the excess homes into rubble is also a joke. Whos home do you want actually worth zero? And guess what there are some streets like that in Middleborough and the have been birded up with metal shutters for two decades if not more the idea of knocking them down to turn them into parks or nature reserves doesnt happen


So be good enough to admit your ideals of flat populations is actually in the real world London and the south continuing to grow while draining the population of the north of Wales and possible of Scotland and the Midlands too. If I lived in any of those areas I would be moving south as soon as o could in the event of a steady state uk

with a theoretically static population, people sweezed into one room in a shared flat will be happy to occupy a larger property.

cells

CLAPTON wrote: »

with a theoretically static population, people sweezed into one room in a shared flat will be happy to occupy a larger property.

that's nice

why are they not doing that in middlesborough? why is grangtown up there borded up and a decaying ghetto?


.