Why I would be celebrating if Brexit led to lower house prices

cells

CLAPTON wrote: »

clearly its nonsense to say a steady population is a bad thing.
better housing, better infrastructure experience, better access to health care etc etc.

it is nonsense to guess there will be more internal migration to London : that will depend on many variables and the situation at the time : its perfectly possible people may choose to leave London as they have done in the past

the uk is not one big city it is made up of many regions cities and towns. If the UK is static as a whole that still means some areas are growing and some are declining. It is basically a continuation of a thousand years of urbanisation and then the post industrial service economy draining the old industrial hubs

yes its a guessing game but the fact remains it will happen. My guess is the south and London will drain the population of wales the north and maybe even the midlands and scotland

If we enter demographic decline without the migrants, long term it could become terrible for a lot of the regions. In the countries I have looked up which are already in decline, the capital city seems to get spared but the rest of the country takes a double hit not only does the population fall nationally but a portion of those that remain go to the capital.

westernpromise

Lower house prices have traditionally been caused only by recessions. If you expect to be a net winner from a recession, you are probably both wrong and rare.

People who think lower house prices would be an unalloyed Good Thing are typically either in denial of the link with recessions, or they expect other people to suffer so that they can gain.

martinsurrey

CLAPTON wrote: »

clearly its nonsense to say a steady population is a bad thing.
better housing, better infrastructure experience, better access to health care etc etc.

http://www.indexmundi.com/united_kingdom/age_structure.html

more old people with less young people to provide those services, to maintain those houses, to build that infrastructure, to man those hospitals.

you seem to state as fact anything that shows migrants = bad, and discard as nonsense anything to the contrary...

CLAPTON

martinsurrey wrote: »

http://www.indexmundi.com/united_kingdom/age_structure.html

more old people with less young people to provide those services, to maintain those houses, to build that infrastructure, to man those hospitals.

you seem to state as fact anything that shows migrants = bad, and discard as nonsense anything to the contrary...

I don't regard immigration is bad per se but I do recognise the scale of immigration is making the people of the UK worse off.

At the moment we do not have a problem with a shortage of labour.
If in the future we do, then that will be the time to allow controlled immigration.

Much of the infrastructure we need at the moment is only only required because of the population increase due to immigration : at the end we are NOT better off , we are simply returning to the standards we used to enjoy.
As it is, we haven't built new infrastructure at the required level because increasing taxation as an 'immigrant infrastructure tax would be unpopular.
What would you estimate we need to spend : 5p in the pound on income tax for the foreseeable future just to stand still infrastructure wise?

CLAPTON

westernpromise wrote: »

Lower house prices have traditionally been caused only by recessions. If you expect to be a net winner from a recession, you are probably both wrong and rare.

People who think lower house prices would be an unalloyed Good Thing are typically either in denial of the link with recessions, or they expect other people to suffer so that they can gain.

house prices are linked to supply and demand.
It may well be that in a recession effective demand drops: however that soon picks up once the downturn is out of the way.

If the population was smaller and stable, the demand for properties would drop and so would the price : all that without a recession.

everyone would enjoy a better standard of housing.

Crashy_Time

westernpromise wrote: »

Lower house prices have traditionally been caused only by recessions. If you expect to be a net winner from a recession, you are probably both wrong and rare.

People who think lower house prices would be an unalloyed Good Thing are typically either in denial of the link with recessions, or they expect other people to suffer so that they can gain.

High house prices have been caused by cheap and loose credit. You can`t have it both ways.

CLAPTON

cells wrote: »

the uk is not one big city it is made up of many regions cities and towns. If the UK is static as a whole that still means some areas are growing and some are declining. It is basically a continuation of a thousand years of urbanisation and then the post industrial service economy draining the old industrial hubs

yes its a guessing game but the fact remains it will happen. My guess is the south and London will drain the population of wales the north and maybe even the midlands and scotland

If we enter demographic decline without the migrants, long term it could become terrible for a lot of the regions. In the countries I have looked up which are already in decline, the capital city seems to get spared but the rest of the country takes a double hit not only does the population fall nationally but a portion of those that remain go to the capital.

incomprehensible nonsense

there are large number of cities that would be hugely more attractive and better to live in, if we knocked down the bad bit s and enjoyed the smaller city
Cambridge, Oxford, Winchester dozen of country towns etc.
If some towns cease to exist then so what: its been happening for thousands of years.

You have made it absolutely clear you think that large is better than small, even if everyone has to live in a shoe box.
I respect your view but I doubt the vast majority of people would agree.


and as for

yes its a guessing game but the fact remains it will happen

about sums but the absurdity.

Filo25

CLAPTON wrote: »

house prices are linked to supply and demand.
It may well be that in a recession effective demand drops: however that soon picks up once the downturn is out of the way.

If the population was smaller and stable, the demand for properties would drop and so would the price : all that without a recession.

everyone would enjoy a better standard of housing.

How would we go about having a smaller stable population?

CLAPTON

Filo25 wrote: »

How would we go about having a smaller stable population?

reducing immigration to a few 10s of thousands

Filo25

CLAPTON wrote: »

reducing immigration to a few 10s of thousands

That wouldn't actually lead to a smaller population on its own though, just a decrease in its growth rate.