How Cheap Can Solar Get?

cells

You can also look at individual countries. Take germany

2008 1.95 GW
2009 4.45 GW
2010 7.38 GW
2011 7.48 GW
2012 7.60 GW
2013 3.30 GW
2014 2.00 GW
2015 1.36 GW

People were drawing lovely exponential graphs from 2000-2011
Even the german solar wiki page was all about this fantastic exponential

Then reality hit and it flat lined and from 2012 it crashed.

its funny now the same wiki germany solar page doesnt mention the exponential, they have even gotten rid of the graphs of annal installed and instead made it invisible with a totalled install


Now the worldwide solar business model wont make the same mistake. They are going to grow until they reach a point where they will stagnate around some figure for years maybe decades

My guess is that figure will be in the 50-100GW a year range when it flat lines. I could be wrong it could keep growing exponentially until it flatlines at 500 GW annually but flat line it will and i would wager it will be in the 50-100GW annual install region

cells

Generali wrote: »

The graph the IEA produce looks an awful lot like capacity is increasing at an exponential rate:

http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=trends0

This is a link to the IEA's graph on another website:



I don't see the slowdown in PV installation. What source do you have that is more authoritative than the IEA? Can you at least provide a link to back up your claims?

It's clear that you think you know what you're talking about but I find it hard to believe you when you make claims that are so easily refuted from what is surely the best source in the world.

look closely

even your own graph is linear from 2012-2014 and a very weak exponential from 2010-2014

the trickery is to include the data points all the way back to 2000 to con the eye

Generali

cells wrote: »

look closely

even your own graph is linear from 2012-2014 and a very weak exponential from 2010-2014

the trickery is to include the data points all the way back to 2000 to con the eye

Yup, I agree. It does go linear.

Good point, well made.

michaels

cells wrote: »

You can also look at individual countries. Take germany

2008 1.95 GW
2009 4.45 GW
2010 7.38 GW
2011 7.48 GW
2012 7.60 GW
2013 3.30 GW
2014 2.00 GW
2015 1.36 GW

People were drawing lovely exponential graphs from 2000-2011
Even the german solar wiki page was all about this fantastic exponential

Then reality hit and it flat lined and from 2012 it crashed.

its funny now the same wiki germany solar page doesnt mention the exponential, they have even gotten rid of the graphs of annal installed and instead made it invisible with a totalled install


Now the worldwide solar business model wont make the same mistake. They are going to grow until they reach a point where they will stagnate around some figure for years maybe decades

My guess is that figure will be in the 50-100GW a year range when it flat lines. I could be wrong it could keep growing exponentially until it flatlines at 500 GW annually but flat line it will and i would wager it will be in the 50-100GW annual install region

I would have thought there was an awful lot of exponential still possible before the rest of the world reaches the German saturation point - and even that point might become a moveable feast if storage prices follow the same curve.....

AG47

I wonder when solar will bottom out in price

AG47

It depends a lot on silver price which is now rising, it was $13 now 16 and going up as gold goes up

You can't make solar panels without silver

antrobus

AG47 wrote: »

It depends a lot on silver price which is now rising, it was $13 now 16 and going up as gold goes up

You can't make solar panels without silver

Natcore says otherwise.:)

http://www.power-technology.com/news/newsnatcore-technology-develops-process-to-manufacture-solar-cells-without-silver-4652012

michaels

antrobus wrote: »

Natcore says otherwise.:)

http://www.power-technology.com/news/newsnatcore-technology-develops-process-to-manufacture-solar-cells-without-silver-4652012

Wow - things move so much faster in developing tech land, quoting from the link above:

The firm intends to file provisional patent application for the development, which is anticipated to bring substantial cost savings to the solar industry in the next two weeks.

antrobus

michaels wrote: »

Wow - things move so much faster in developing tech land, quoting from the link above:

Of course, not being an engineering type person, I have no idea whether the bl00dy thing actually works.

wotsthat

AG47 wrote: »

It depends a lot on silver price which is now rising, it was $13 now 16 and going up as gold goes up

You can't make solar panels without silver

Looking at silver prices back to 2008 ($11) to 2011 ($50) and today ($16) it's pretty clear that, to date at least, the increase in new solar capacity hasn't depended on silver prices one iota.