Debate House Prices


In order to help keep the Forum a useful, safe and friendly place for our users, discussions around non MoneySaving matters are no longer permitted. This includes wider debates about general house prices, the economy and politics. As a result, we have taken the decision to keep this board permanently closed, but it remains viewable for users who may find some useful information in it. Thank you for your understanding.
We'd like to remind Forumites to please avoid political debate on the Forum. This is to keep it a safe and useful space for MoneySaving discussions. Threads that are - or become - political in nature may be removed in line with the Forum’s rules. Thank you for your understanding.

The Next Nail in the Coffin

1356741

Comments

  • Jason74
    Jason74 Posts: 650 Forumite
    cells wrote: »
    Less renters needs the return of interest only self cert 10% down mortgages. And 0% down prime borrower mortgages.

    Or, it needs restrictions on BTL funding (potentially including capital raising against main residence to buy other properties) combined with more discouragement of BTL through the tax system, more regulations for landlords, and much stiffer penalties for non compliance. That would take landlord demand out of the market, and cause prices to adjust to whatever level was affordable for owner occupiers based on current mortgage rules.

    I'm not saying such an outcome is likely, but it would certainly be another way to change the OO / BTL balance without looser lending.
  • Generali
    Generali Posts: 36,411 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    cells wrote: »
    Transactions are somewhat based on new build levels. One new build will lead to some 3 transactions.

    In the crash new builds crashed nearly 100k units a year and that would explain a big part (300k) of the crash in volimes. New builds are recovering from the lows and again it will explain some 300k of the uplift in transactions

    Best call Bob Shiller, it's his work on house prices that helped the team win the Nobel Prize for economics.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/502930/House_Building_Release_Dec_Qtr_2015.pdf

    The drop in new builds post dates the big drop in transactions by about a year and probably correlates more closely to volume builders not being able to get finance to start new projects but were able to draw on preagreed lines of credit to finish existing projects.

    I'd rethink your theory TBH.
  • Generali
    Generali Posts: 36,411 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    cells wrote: »
    I think you are overreacting to this.

    Government wants more tax money so they hit landlords who have little choice bit to vote for them.

    They may want more owners and fewer renters but that's got more to do with mortgages than landlords especially in half the country where houses are cheap but renting is increasing nonetheless

    You are probably correct in that the direction of travel is more taxes on landlords but I don't think the direction of travil is lower house prices especially in the north and Midlands that are just recovering prices

    So BTL Landlords are having imposed on them:

    - Higher SDLT
    - Higher CGT
    - Effectively increased income taxes (can't imagine that there are vast numbers of BTL Landlords that are Kosher that aren't paying a higher rate of income tax)
    - Stricter limits on housing benefits (please let's not try to pretend that HB isn't a huge subsidy to the BTL market as a whole!)

    Now there are going to be limits on borrowing as well.

    It feels like the only tax that hasn't been increased (or not decreased) selectively on BTL LLs is VAT and excise duty!

    It feels a lot like an all-out attack on BTL-ism to me, probably with the aim of increasing owner occupation. It seems obvious to me: if a BTL LL can't afford to own the house because his taxes go up then he'll become a forced seller or not be able to enter the market in the first place. In the short term that means an increase in supply to the OO market although in the long term probably lower supply overall as fewer new-builds are put up.
  • Crashy_Time
    Crashy_Time Posts: 13,386 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Seventh Anniversary Name Dropper
    Generali wrote: »
    Well AIUI you're in a bit of a different position to many as you don't use little leverage (these days at least). I guess your biggest worry is that your market dries up when you want to exit.


    Been telling him that for a long time now, plus that the time to get into shares (via trackers) is when they are NOT profitable to the masses.
  • michaels
    michaels Posts: 28,759 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Photogenic Name Dropper
    At least in London/SE you can not house the population at typical OO occupancy levels so how is this going to work out?
    I think....
  • Crashy_Time
    Crashy_Time Posts: 13,386 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Seventh Anniversary Name Dropper
    economic wrote: »
    just sold my flat - am wondering if there is a perfect storm brewing for a property correction/crash in london.

    - BTL changes
    - EU vote
    - confidence in the economy
    - financial services contracting

    only positives really are rates to remain lower for longer and there is still quite a lot of demand from FTB (but this can easily be gone once we start to see fears of recession and job losses).

    should i buy now or wait?


    Go on, buy again, lose it all :rotfl:Be like Gerard Butler in the casino scene in The Bounty Hunter :T
  • chucknorris
    chucknorris Posts: 10,793 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper
    edited 30 March 2016 at 3:22AM
    Been telling him that for a long time now, plus that the time to get into shares (via trackers) is when they are NOT profitable to the masses.

    But your reasoning is completely bonkers:

    Yes you have been telling me that for a very long time, I've probably made significant capital gains, since you started telling me. Whereas if I had got out then and invested my equity in shares, I would be suffering significant losses.

    I've definitely made significant rental profit (over and above the dividend income that I would have otherwise made) since then.

    If I got out when you did, I wouldn't be able to retire this summer, although next summer is also a possibility too.
    Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one birdThe only time Chuck Norris was wrong was when he thought he had made a mistakeChuck Norris puts the "laughter" in "manslaughter".I've started running again, after several injuries had forced me to stop
  • Generali
    Generali Posts: 36,411 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    michaels wrote: »
    At least in London/SE you can not house the population at typical OO occupancy levels so how is this going to work out?

    No idea. People accepting longer commutes perhaps or maybe an increase in lodging.

    Perhaps the better off in a group of friends buy a place and rent to the others.

    Maybe young people live with their parents for longer.

    Maybe other means for increasing housing density (house conversion to flats for example) rises.

    Maybe the builders will build some extra houses........nah, that would just be silly.
  • michaels
    michaels Posts: 28,759 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Photogenic Name Dropper
    I was thinking perhaps lodging and indeed the tax treatment of this has recently been improved but afaik mortgage companies are not generally interested in lodger income?
    I think....
  • Generali
    Generali Posts: 36,411 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    michaels wrote: »
    I was thinking perhaps lodging and indeed the tax treatment of this has recently been improved but afaik mortgage companies are not generally interested in lodger income?

    Even if mortgage companies aren't interested, it might make someone with more expensive personal habits (smoker, big drinker, [insert vice of choice]) able to buy.
This discussion has been closed.
Meet your Ambassadors

🚀 Getting Started

Hi new member!

Our Getting Started Guide will help you get the most out of the Forum

Categories

  • All Categories
  • 348.2K Banking & Borrowing
  • 252.1K Reduce Debt & Boost Income
  • 452.3K Spending & Discounts
  • 240.7K Work, Benefits & Business
  • 617K Mortgages, Homes & Bills
  • 175.6K Life & Family
  • 253.9K Travel & Transport
  • 1.5M Hobbies & Leisure
  • 16K Discuss & Feedback
  • 15.1K Coronavirus Support Boards

Is this how you want to be seen?

We see you are using a default avatar. It takes only a few seconds to pick a picture.