The Next Nail in the Coffin

economic

so yu have over 1.25m outside of proerty and also many properties as well. you are what in your 50s? why are you on these forums when clearly you dont need to save money? you should be living it up! do you have kids?

westernpromise

For as long as I can remember, people have predicting complete nonsense based on the promise of some computery thing or another, and it's never happened. Video conferencing hasn't ended business travel, because different times zones limit when you can do it. 'Puters haven't ended the need for offices by enabling people to work from home, because people still have line bosses. The internet did not take out the high street.

I am sceptical that anything is going to come along to make cities permanently less attractive places to live in, having failed to come along to do so for the last couple of thousand years. I don't say it can't happen, just that nothing cited as the trigger for it ever turns out to be genuinely new or game-changing.

that suggests to me that you think eventually prices will rise in order for one to sell at a profit after buying the top. but how long does one have to wait? how do you know itll be within his lifetime? answer: you dont and i thin you are assuming too much.

Nobody knows, but if you want to bet against this chart

http://www.housingmarket.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/house-prices-52-09.jpg

- have at it.

mwpt

economic wrote: »

so yu have over 1.25m outside of proerty and also many properties as well. you are what in your 50s? why are you on these forums when clearly you dont need to save money? you should be living it up! do you have kids?

Are you just a reincarnation of a previous poster? What has chuck's personal life and decisions got to do with you?

chucknorris

economic wrote: »

so yu have over 1.25m outside of proerty and also many properties as well. you are what in your 50s? why are you on these forums when clearly you dont need to save money? you should be living it up! do you have kids?

My happiness doesn't come from having money, of course it doesn't hurt, and as comedians sometimes say, it is better to be miserable with rather than without money, but the same probably applies to being happy too.

I never said that I did need to save money, but that doesn't mean that I don't seek value. I enjoy (to an extent) posting here, I do do other things you know! Are you saying that you only post here because you are too poor to be able to afford to do anything else with your time?

No we don't have children, if we did we wouldn't sell up (at least not everything), the property (or most of it) would eventually end up as their inheritance.

westernpromise

cells wrote: »

fantastic, only for most people the option isn't to go to the american or Japanese or Kenyan stock exchange and they dont have a hindsight machine.

For most people its to buy or to keep it in a bank account. For them property especially in London and geared up with a mortgage has been a massive improvement to their wealth much more so than hindsight merchants peddling rear view mirror investing. the 20% annual gains for a mortgaged property in London have pretty much beaten all other indexes or alternatives.

And of course the hindsight machine has completely missed the corollary point in this case, which is that to someone thinking in dollar terms, London's low price growth means it still looks cheap.

Take a Chinese buyer with 10 million renmimbi on this day in 2008. How many £ could he buy with that? £718,102, according to oanda.com. How many £ does that same sum buy today? Well, first of all it's not the same sum if his 10 million renmimbi have been on deposit at typical Chinese rates. It's now 15.94 million renmimbi. So at today's exchange rate he'd have £1,722k.

So a Chinese buyer of 2008 could have spent £0.7 million then or £1.7 million today, but his renmimbi cost would be exactly the same sum.

Crashy_Time

cells wrote: »

I was thinking today that we are all prone to group think and to confirmation bias its probably hard wired in most 'normal' people.

Then I thought if its not something that can be changed is it better to put yourself into successful well off circles and group think like them or is it better to put yourself into prepers and the worlds going to end and conspiracy theory circles and group think like them?

Well the desire to fit in is strong in humans, the bankers exploited this when they were building the property bubble. Good to see that Think and Grow Rich is on your reading shelf though. I know, why not make your Master Mind Group a half dozen HPI mentalists on a hidden web forum that probably has the same posters talking to themselves through multiple ID`s :rotfl:Bingo! Groupthink no more!

Crashy_Time

chucknorris wrote: »

If you are going to be rude about people, at least have the courage to identify which posters that you are referring to.

I do not think that posters are assuming that prices will always go up in the long term, I think you are confused. My view is that on the balance of probability I was (was because I am not interested in investing in property in the future) happy to take the chance that in the long run that they will rise. I think most property bulls here take the same view, it isn't that they assume prices will go up, I think they think it is good bet that they do, there are very few certainties in life, but still have to make investment decisions anyway. Personally (and I have posted this many times) I seriously doubt if London prices will rise in real terms, but I would be very confident that they would rise nominally.

It was only a couple of months ago that I posted this:

Let`s face it Chuck, the tone of posting here has changed quite a bit since the PTB started targeting BTL, no? Much less swagger than their used to be IMO.

chucknorris

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Let`s face it Chuck, the tone of posting here has changed quite a bit since the PTB started targeting BTL, no? Much less swagger than their used to be IMO.

It wasn't what he said, it was that he didn't say who he was talking about. I haven't really noticed much of achange of tone TBH, it might surprise you, but even before the recent tax changes I was saying that London property might have peaked (in real terms):

From July 2014:

chucknorris wrote: »

I tend to agree with you about property not really increasing that much more in real terms, fortunately I bought most of mine in the early 90's so these days I am merely looking for consolidation and balancing my portfolio. I don't anticipate any real (only nominal) capital gain, so I won't be buying any more property, my money is currently going into shares (in SS NISA, non NISA and SIPP) and DB pension, although I can't buy any more pension in the teachers' pension scheme after next year as I have reached the max allowed, which is probably going to prompt my early retirement.

Crashy_Time

mwpt wrote: »

Are you just a reincarnation of a previous poster? What has chuck's personal life and decisions got to do with you?

Chuck continually posts details of his "wealth" all over an internet forum, why shouldn`t people question his motivations for doing that?

mwpt

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Chuck continually posts details of his "wealth" all over an internet forum, why shouldn`t people question his motivations for doing that?

The tone taken reminded me of a previous poster and sounded judgemental that chuck chooses to post on this forum. I enjoy posting here, or I wouldn't do it, same as anyone I guess.

By the way, you seem to freely offer advice and opinion on what people should do regarding the housing market yet hide the results of your own decisions. You and I might share some common ground in that both of us would like to see lower priced property in the UK but at least I'm open about the fact that I made a huge loss by shorting the market for 10 years and have now bought in because I wanted a stable home. You continue to short the housing market and tell others to do the same, you should post the current results of your decision.