The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Shakethedisease

abz88 wrote: »

They should probably focus on trying to figure out how to get an IndyRef2 first. Especially as their manifesto specifically said they had to have a legal transfer of powers for it to be meaningful, especially for the EU. And then trying to figure out how to swing the last vote 5.6% in their favour, especially considering they didn't get more than 50% of the votes at the last election (and before you bring up first past the post, that's not how a referendum would work, they need more than 50% of the vote.) Actually a mandate for another referendum would probably be the best starting point, something they are missing.

1) The language in the manifesto was very careful and said a legal means such as a section 30. There are other legal options.

2) You're right that a General Election isn't the same as a referendum. But you've missed the point. 40% of those who vote Labour would consider voting for indy. And the GE franchise doesn't include the 209,000 EU nationals nor 16/17 year olds both of whom took part in the last ref. EU nationals last time round mostly voted No due to leaving the EU fears. Safe to say a most of them would vote Yes now. So why not add those figures onto you handy percentages above ? Then get back to me with some sort of discussion based on realism rather than spouting percentages based on an General Election that bears no resemblance to an actual indy ref franchise.

3) Polls also miss out these people regularly. The last ref was lost by 192,000 votes. And I suspect a fair few old style Labour voters who turned out enthusiastiaclly to vote No last time in the expectation of a Uk Labour Govt ( Milliband was ahead in the polls) .. will abstain rather than endorse a Tory Govt regardless of how much they dislike the SNP.

What legally went into the EU as the UK will absolutely come out with it in Brexit, all of it! The SNP and Indy supporters are trying to force another vote precisely because they don't like that statement, but are fine to use the same statement to rip out parts of Scotland that want to remain? Completely hypocritical and "nonsensical"
Take Orkney and Sheltand, they have NEVER returned a vote for the SNP, they have had Unionist party candidates for longer than the SNP has been a party! They returned the largest No vote in the last IndyRef and have shown no signs of changing this point. They don't need to campaign to remain in the UK as they have been voting that way for over 200 years and clearly have "sufficient support"

Don't be silly. Orkney and Shetland are Scottish. They came into the UK with Scotland and they'll leave with it. End of story. I guess they could go for independence or rejoining the UK later should they wish. But in the next indy ref, should a Yes vote be returned.. they'll leave the UK the same way Glasgow. Dumfries and all the other Scottish areas will. You're away down a rabbit hole that isn't really relevant.

Shakethedisease

abz88 wrote: »

All of the borders, the north, Orkney and Shetland and the majority of the North East, so not just "pockets of Tories in Perthshire". All Unionists returning constituencies that don't want Indy and don't see the benefits of a central belt centred Scotland compared to a London centred UK.

No one thinks Scotland is getting close to an emergency exit, bar a few extreme nationalists.

They'll be leaving the UK after a Yes vote just the same though.


Oh and I forgot this from today

BREAKING: A new poll carried out by Survation, on behalf of Progress Scotland, has found that 61% believe the Scottish Government should decide on the holding of a future Scottish independence referendum

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18187924.61-scots-believe-holyrood-final-say-scottish-independence-referendum/

mollycat

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Don't be silly. Orkney and Shetland are Scottish. They came into the UK with Scotland and they'll leave with it. End of story. I guess they could go for independence or rejoining the UK later should they wish. But in the next indy ref, should a Yes vote be returned.. they'll leave the UK the same way Glasgow. Dumfries and all the other Scottish areas will. You're away down a rabbit hole that isn't really relevant.

To put this in context, the discussion on whether NO voting areas could remain in the UK following any Independence vote was started by an Independence supporter, trying to justify @abz88 legitimate point that it was hypocritical to sat Scotland was being taken out of the UK against it's will when exactly the same thing would happen to huge swathes of Scotland after any YES vote.

10/10 for attempting to deflect the "silliness", onto a poster that actually has insight into the illogical independence argument though.

abz88

Shakethedisease wrote: »

1) The language in the manifesto was very careful and said a legal means such as a section 30. There are other legal options.

Correct, it stated "such as", however, before that it stated "In order to put a referendum beyond legal challenge, we will seek a transfer of power" and it also stated "An agreed process means that no-one will be able to question the legitimacy of the referendum both here in Scotland and in the wider international community. For EU member states in particular, it will be essential to demonstrate that a referendum has been held legally and constitutionally."
How do you intend to get an agreed process when Westminster are saying no because they do not believe there is a mandate for it? Any other legal routes open, or non-Westminster approved referendum, by the SNP's own admission, will be non-binding and will have less weight with the EU.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

2) You're right that a General Election isn't the same as a referendum. But you've missed the point. 40% of those who vote Labour would consider voting for indy. And the GE franchise doesn't include the 209,000 EU nationals nor 16/17 year olds both of whom took part in the last ref. EU nationals last time round mostly voted No due to leaving the EU fears. Safe to say a most of them would vote Yes now. So why not add those figures onto you handy percentages above ? Then get back to me with some sort of discussion based on realism rather than spouting percentages based on an General Election that bears no resemblance to an actual indy ref franchise.

The 5.6% isn't a percentage based on the GE, its the percentage swing required for Indy based on the last Indy vote. It is not for me to show why this number is not still the current view in Scotland. It is up to Indy supporters to show why it has changed. You are just spouting random numbers of EU nationals and Labour voters and assuming they will vote or consider (which is not a vote) for Indy. Just because you assume they will, doesn't mean they will. Lets look at EU nationals, your assumption is that every EU national is pro-EU. There has been talk in the past of Greece and Netherlands holding their own referendum votes, while neither likely would vote to leave it highlights that there are people within the EU that are against it. Another example would be any Spanish living in Scotland might not vote for Indy due to the Catalonia issue.
As I said, if you/Indy supports want another referendum the onus is on you to show where the mandate comes from and rationalise the surge in support instead of just assuming the numbers by adding 2 (GE result) + 2 (EU nationals) + 2(16/17 years olds) and getting 10.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

3) Polls also miss out these people regularly. The last ref was lost by 192,000 votes. And I suspect a fair few old style Labour voters who turned out enthusiastiaclly to vote No last time in the expectation of a Uk Labour Govt ( Milliband was ahead in the polls) .. will abstain rather than endorse a Tory Govt regardless of how much they dislike the SNP.

Again, you are simply making assumptions around voters intentions. A fair few old style Labour voters turned their backs on Labour and voted Tory in the last GE in England. Depending on who the next Labour leader is, there could be a swing in support which you haven't accounted for.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Don't be silly. Orkney and Shetland are Scottish. They came into the UK with Scotland and they'll leave with it. End of story. I guess they could go for independence or rejoining the UK later should they wish. But in the next indy ref, should a Yes vote be returned.. they'll leave the UK the same way Glasgow. Dumfries and all the other Scottish areas will. You're away down a rabbit hole that isn't really relevant.

So you're not willing to accept the hypocrisy of demanding an IndyRef on the basis of 'we're being dragged out of the EU without our consent' but perfectly happy to do that to Orkeny/Shetland/borders? It is a very valid issue and not a "rabbit hole". In fact, during the last IndyRef, the SNP's rural affairs spokesperson stated that both Orkney and Shetland would be allowed to remain in rUK in the event of a yes vote “if there was a big enough drive for self-determination” on the islands. On top of that he stated the islands would retain control over a “fair fraction” of the North Sea oil and gas that the SNP were relying on to fund public services (of reserves left, they would be looking at around 1/4 share based on their surrounding seas). Again, just because it's your opinion, doesn't make it fact. The SNP and Scottish Government opinion is that Shetland/Orkney can remain in the UK (which, as far as I am aware, has not changed), based on the turnout that said "No" on the island last time round it is a very real possibility. Once that happens, the Scottish Government leave themselves open to the borders saying "If Orkney and Shetland can remain, what is the legal basis stopping us remaining". There were also no finances published last time to show Scotland's economy without the Oil and Gas share that the islands would take with them.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

They'll be leaving the UK after a Yes vote just the same though.

Not according to the SNP, again, your opinion is not fact

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Oh and I forgot this from today https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18187924.61-scots-believe-holyrood-final-say-scottish-independence-referendum/

All that says it that Scots believe Holyrood should have the final say in holding a referendum, however, as per the SNP manifesto they want/need an agreed position with Westminster. The Catalonians believed they should be the ones that decide to hold a referendum on their Independence, that didn't exactly end well though did it. There is also a difference between believing Holyrood should have the final decision on holding a referendum and voting Yes.

And if we are now just posting random polls, https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/support-for-scottish-independence-has-fallen-according-to-latest-yougov-survey-1-5058619

abz88

mollycat wrote: »

To put this in context, the discussion on whether NO voting areas could remain in the UK following any Independence vote was started by an Independence supporter, trying to justify @abz88 legitimate point that it was hypocritical to sat Scotland was being taken out of the UK against it's will when exactly the same thing would happen to huge swathes of Scotland after any YES vote.

10/10 for attempting to deflect the "silliness", onto a poster that actually has insight into the illogical independence argument though.

Not only is it deflecting from the hypocrisy, my silly opinion is the same opinion that the SNP/Scottish Government had at the last Indy vote regarding Orkney/Shetland remaining in the UK!

Shakethedisease

mollycat wrote: »

To put this in context, the discussion on whether NO voting areas could remain in the UK following any Independence vote was started by an Independence supporter, trying to justify @abz88 legitimate point that it was hypocritical to sat Scotland was being taken out of the UK against it's will when exactly the same thing would happen to huge swathes of Scotland after any YES vote.

10/10 for attempting to deflect the "silliness", onto a poster that actually has insight into the illogical independence argument though.

Orkney and Shetland are Scottish. They will leave with Scotland in the event of a Yes vote. They could campaign afterwards to rejoin the UK or leave Scotland. But they'll be leaving the UK with the rest of Scotland, and any campaign to rejoin or for independence from Scotland will be conducted via Holyrood.

abz88

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Orkney and Shetland are Scottish. They will leave with Scotland in the event of a Yes vote. They could campaign afterwards to rejoin the UK or leave Scotland. But they'll be leaving the UK with the rest of Scotland, and any campaign to rejoin or for independence from Scotland will be conducted via Holyrood.

Again, THIS IS YOUR OPINION and it is NOT THE OPINION OF THE SNP OR SCOTTISH GOVERNMENT.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9156220/SNP-admits-Shetland-and-Orkney-could-opt-out-of-independent-Scotland.html

To summarise, Angus MacNeil, the SNP’s rural affairs spokesman, confirmed that Shetland and Orkney would be permitted to remain part of the UK regardless of the referendum result “if there was a big enough drive for self-determination” among their residents.

That is the position at the last election, and that position has not been changed by the SNP or Scottish Government and it its no a position that you are able to change just to suit your own viewpoint. There is also a legal precedence for this as in the 1979 Scottish devolution referendum Orkney and Shetland were given an "opt-out" clause.

Shakethedisease

abz88 wrote: »

Correct, it stated "such as", however, before that it stated "In order to put a referendum beyond legal challenge, we will seek a transfer of power" and it also stated "An agreed process means that no-one will be able to question the legitimacy of the referendum both here in Scotland and in the wider international community. For EU member states in particular, it will be essential to demonstrate that a referendum has been held legally and constitutionally."
How do you intend to get an agreed process when Westminster are saying no because they do not believe there is a mandate for it? Any other legal routes open, or non-Westminster approved referendum, by the SNP's own admission, will be non-binding and will have less weight with the EU.

The section 30 would've put things beyond legal challenge. However, Holyrood calling a referendum without one will put in motion various legal challenges. It's never been tested legally. Should any legal challenge result in the judgement that Holyrood is perfectly within it's right to consult the Scottish people then any resulting referendum will be legal.

The 5.6% isn't a percentage based on the GE, its the percentage swing required for Indy based on the last Indy vote. It is not for me to show why this number is not still the current view in Scotland. It is up to Indy supporters to show why it has changed. You are just spouting random numbers of EU nationals and Labour voters and assuming they will vote or consider (which is not a vote) for Indy. Just because you assume they will, doesn't mean they will. Lets look at EU nationals, your assumption is that every EU national is pro-EU. There has been talk in the past of Greece and Netherlands holding their own referendum votes, while neither likely would vote to leave it highlights that there are people within the EU that are against it. Another example would be any Spanish living in Scotland might not vote for Indy due to the Catalonia issue.
As I said, if you/Indy supports want another referendum the onus is on you to show where the mandate comes from and rationalise the surge in support instead of just assuming the numbers by adding 2 (GE result) + 2 (EU nationals) + 2(16/17 years olds) and getting 10.


Again, you are simply making assumptions around voters intentions. A fair few old style Labour voters turned their backs on Labour and voted Tory in the last GE in England. Depending on who the next Labour leader is, there could be a swing in support which you haven't accounted for.

Only a referendum will tell. There are plenty that have changed their minds in the last 6 years. And imo turnout will be lower mainly due to a swathe of older Labour voters who won't vote. EU Nationals will vote Yes in droves compared to last time where some 70% of them voted No.

So you're not willing to accept the hypocrisy of demanding an IndyRef on the basis of 'we're being dragged out of the EU without our consent'

I want an indyref like many others because I feel Scottish interests are best suited by being run from Holyrood.

but perfectly happy to do that to Orkeny/Shetland/borders? It is a very valid issue and not a "rabbit hole". In fact, during the last IndyRef, the SNP's rural affairs spokesperson stated that both Orkney and Shetland would be allowed to remain in rUK in the event of a yes vote “if there was a big enough drive for self-determination” on the islands.

There is little desire from Orkney or Shetland to be independent of Scotland in any cirumstances.

On top of that he stated the islands would retain control over a “fair fraction” of the North Sea oil and gas that the SNP were relying on to fund public services (of reserves left, they would be looking at around 1/4 share based on their surrounding seas). Again, just because it's your opinion, doesn't make it fact. The SNP and Scottish Government opinion is that Shetland/Orkney can remain in the UK (which, as far as I am aware, has not changed), based on the turnout that said "No" on the island last time round it is a very real possibility. Once that happens, the Scottish Government leave themselves open to the borders saying "If Orkney and Shetland can remain, what is the legal basis stopping us remaining". There were also no finances published last time to show Scotland's economy without the Oil and Gas share that the islands would take with them.

It doesn't matter. There is no current process whereby Orkney/Shetland or any other area of Scotland can stay in the UK should the rest of Scotland vote for independence. Unless you're talking about the UK annexing those areas ? What youre saying is that Yes voting areas like Glasgow and Dundee from last time round should already be independent from the UK ? So you are indeed away down a rabbit hole. Yes areas from last time aren't independent. So likewise No voting areas next time won't be staying in the UK if there's a Yes vote. Why aren't Yes voting areas independent ?

[All that says it that Scots believe Holyrood should have the final say in holding a referendum, however, as per the SNP manifesto they want/need an agreed position with Westminster. The Catalonians believed they should be the ones that decide to hold a referendum on their Independence, that didn't exactly end well though did it. There is also a difference between believing Holyrood should have the final decision on holding a referendum and voting Yes.

Catalonia is a region of Spain. Scotland is an equal signatory to the Treaty of Union. The comparison is not relevant. The poll is significant as it's contrary to what the Tories keep telling us how Scots feel about second referendums in Scotland.

And if we are now just posting random polls, https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/support-for-scottish-independence-has-fallen-according-to-latest-yougov-survey-1-5058619

When you're reduced to posting polls from the Scotsman... But it's likely Scottish independence support is underestimated due to factors that I've posted before ( EU nationals/16/17 year olds ) and also the fact that support for the SNP across most polling in the run up to the last General Election was also significantly underestimated.

Shakethedisease

abz88 wrote: »

Again, THIS IS YOUR OPINION and it is NOT THE OPINION OF THE SNP OR SCOTTISH GOVERNMENT.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9156220/SNP-admits-Shetland-and-Orkney-could-opt-out-of-independent-Scotland.html

To summarise, Angus MacNeil, the SNP’s rural affairs spokesman, confirmed that Shetland and Orkney would be permitted to remain part of the UK regardless of the referendum result “if there was a big enough drive for self-determination” among their residents.

That is the position at the last election, and that position has not been changed by the SNP or Scottish Government and it its no a position that you are able to change just to suit your own viewpoint. There is also a legal precedence for this as in the 1979 Scottish devolution referendum Orkney and Shetland were given an "opt-out" clause.

They're not going anywhere. Just like Yes voting areas last time aren't independent of the UK right now. You can't have it both ways I'm afraid. And the Telegraph isn't always the best source of analysis when it comes to anything to do with Scottish independence issues.

They're Scottish and that's that and shall be leaving with Scotland just the same as they joined the UK with the rest of Scotland. Yes voters didn't get to go independent if the UK in 2014. It's unlikely that No voters in any area of Scotland at the next ref will get to pick and choose either.

Una_Voidable

Shakethedisease wrote: »

[STRIKE]Orkney[/STRIKE] Scotland and [STRIKE]Shetland[/STRIKE] Wales are [STRIKE]Scottish[/STRIKE] British. They will leave with [STRIKE]Scotland in the event of a Yes[/STRIKE] Britain after the Leave vote. They could campaign afterwards to rejoin the [STRIKE]UK[/STRIKE] EU or leave [STRIKE]Scotland[/STRIKE] the UK. But they'll be leaving the [STRIKE]UK[/STRIKE] EU with the rest of [STRIKE]Scotland[/STRIKE] the UK, and any campaign to rejoin or for independence from [STRIKE]Scotland[/STRIKE] the UK will be conducted via [STRIKE]Holyrood[/STRIKE] Westminster.

The similarities in struck me.