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Next interest rate decision
Comments
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Strong manufacturing figures this morning, but I doubt we'll see a rise this month too much uncertainty. Until the credit markets sort themselves out I doubt we'll see any change."Mrs. Pench, you've won the car contest, would you like a triumph spitfire or 3000 in cash?" He smiled.
Mrs. Pench took the money. "What will you do with it all? Not that it's any of my business," he giggled.
"I think I'll become an alcoholic," said Betty.0 -
Martinslovechild wrote: »I believe we'll see a rise this month followed by 2 further rises in 2008.
My own forecast for Bank Rate at the end of 2008 = 6.5%.
Oil will continue to cause problems for inflation during the winter months of 2007-08. House Price Inflation will pick up in 2008 also. We'll see higher wage settlements around March - May which will cause the BoE to react agressively.
I think you're about a year behind! How will oil continue to cause problems for inflation, or are you forecasting a spike in oil prices and if so, how are you making that forecast?
HPI pick-up? Are you serious? HPI is now at around 8/9% and you think it will go into double digits even with higher interest rates and tighter lending?
And why will we see higher wage settlements around March - May? What a random statement.0 -
Martinslovechild wrote: »I believe we'll see a rise this month followed by 2 further rises in 2008.
My own forecast for Bank Rate at the end of 2008 = 6.5%.
Oil will continue to cause problems for inflation during the winter months of 2007-08.
Oil prices are falling as are petrol and gas prices in Sterling terms.Martinslovechild wrote: »House Price Inflation will pick up in 2008 also.
HPI isn't measured by the CPI which is the targetted inflation proxy.Martinslovechild wrote: »We'll see higher wage settlements around March - May which will cause the BoE to react agressively.
Excellent. I like a nice pay rise.
My view is that the only thing that's going to cause an increase in base rates before the end of 2008 is a run on the pound. The credit crunch is doing a splendid job of cranking up the rates paid in the market. Mortgage rates will follow LIBOR up until the money market is sure that all the bad news is out there or the central banks have confirmed that they'll bail the banks out.0 -
No chance of a rise anytime this year, or even the first half of next year.
The markets have effectively raised rates themselves. The point of the BoE increasing rates is to cool the economy by making it harder/more expensive to get credit to spend on things. With the global credit crunch only just beginning, the only way the BoE is going to go is DOWN.
A few months ago I thought we were a dead cert for 6.25& by Spring 2008, but now I think we'll be a lot lower.poppy100 -
what they should do: raise once more by .25.
what they will do: hold, because they have no idea what they are doing*.
gradual cuts in 2008.
*as in: reduced rates in August 2005.BLOODBATH IN THE EVENING THEN? :shocked: OR PERHAPS THE AFTERNOON? OR THE MORNING? OH, FORGET THIS MALARKEY!
THE KILLERS :cool:
THE PUNISHER :dance: MATURE CHEDDAR ADDICT:cool:0 -
free4440273 wrote: »what they should do: raise once more by .25.
what they will do: hold, because they have no idea what they are doing*.
gradual cuts in 2008.
*as in: reduced rates in August 2005.
I think this is a wee bit harsh actually. Cutting in August 2005 was almost certainly a mistake but the MPC has suceeded in keeping CPI in a pretty tight range for over 120 months.
If I'd only made one mistake at work in the last 10 years I'd earn a damn sight more than I do at present!0 -
free4440273 wrote: »what they should do: raise once more by .25.
what they will do: hold, because they have no idea what they are doing*.
gradual cuts in 2008.
*as in: reduced rates in August 2005.
I like being harsh on the BofE. After all, they are harsh on my savings:DI think this is a wee bit harsh actually. Cutting in August 2005 was almost certainly a mistake but the MPC has suceeded in keeping CPI in a pretty tight range for over 120 months.
If I'd only made one mistake at work in the last 10 years I'd earn a damn sight more than I do at present!
BLOODBATH IN THE EVENING THEN? :shocked: OR PERHAPS THE AFTERNOON? OR THE MORNING? OH, FORGET THIS MALARKEY!
THE KILLERS :cool:
THE PUNISHER :dance: MATURE CHEDDAR ADDICT:cool:0 -
Up a 0.25% before the end of the year, possibly another one before next summer.
I don't think inflation has gone away - quite likely food prices will be going up for a number of reasons (weather, increase in bio-fuels, change in Tesco strategy - link below). We'll have to wait for winter for an idea about gas and electric (water will just carry on regardless).
Retailers will either be increasing prices or announcing "restructuring programs" (as they do when margins are looking flaky). May also be more bad publicity about pay and conditions for offshore workers.
Also depends on whether "Invisible Alistair" can come up with any non-CPI "green" taxes...
Tesco story http://observer.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,,2160769,00.html0 -
Oh, I quite agree MAH, inflation has certainly not gone away; it's just that I'm beginning to think the BofE will revert to type all over again - just 'ignore' the inflationary increase as a discrepancy, say, and therefore hold. But yeah, they should raise once more, but they won't.BLOODBATH IN THE EVENING THEN? :shocked: OR PERHAPS THE AFTERNOON? OR THE MORNING? OH, FORGET THIS MALARKEY!
THE KILLERS :cool:
THE PUNISHER :dance: MATURE CHEDDAR ADDICT:cool:0 -
free4440273 wrote: »I like being harsh on the BofE. After all, they are harsh on my savings:D
There's nothing quite as hard on your savings as losing your job because the MPC has raised interest rates too high!
The food thing is a red herring. Firstly food is only about 8% of consumption. Secondly, if food prices rise by a very large amount that means that there are shortages. A relaxation of European import restrictions should ease shortages - most 3rd world farmers would love to charge EU prices*!
If retailers make people redundant, rising unemployment should reduce inflationary pressures according to many macro economic theories.0
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