Knee deep in current accounts. Go for more, or increase investments?

Temrael

Ok, yep. That smooths it out a little doesn't it? And given that I've got LS Acc I guess that's more how it would go (as earnings would be reinvested)?

That helped me feel a bit better about this actually, got anything else?

masonic

Consumerist wrote: »

Well, I'm no chartist but that looks me as though it topped-out last spring/summer.

I think you are selling yourself short. Focusing on the short term peaks and troughs while overlooking the long term trend is the hallmark of a chartist.

masonic

Temrael wrote: »

That helped me feel a bit better about this actually, got anything else?

How about looking over a longer time scale. You can adjust the 'from' date all the way back to 1985. Looks like further falls are likely to be limited (based of course on past performance, which is no guide to the future).

Consumerist

masonic wrote: »

I think you are selling yourself short. Focusing on the short term peaks and troughs while overlooking the long term trend is the hallmark of a chartist.

Interesting observation.

I thought I was doing exactly the opposite. If you draw a trend-line through the 10-yr plot, it still looks to me as though that trend has been broadly heading south since last summer.

masonic

Consumerist wrote: »

Interesting observation.

I thought I was doing exactly the opposite. If you draw a trend-line through the 10-yr plot, it still looks to me as though that trend has been broadly heading south since last summer.

Your trend-line sounds like more of a curve to me. Perhaps more like the simple moving average used by a trader?

Consumerist

masonic wrote: »

Your trend-line sounds like more of a curve to me. Perhaps more like the simple moving average used by a trader?

Well, not a straight trend-line but more the impression you get by looking at its general shape. Not very analytical, I'm afraid, but still looks over the hill to me.

masonic

Consumerist wrote: »

Well, not a straight trend-line but more the impression you get by looking at its general shape. Not very analytical, I'm afraid, but still looks over the hill to me.

So your prediction is that the summer of 2015 marks an inflection point in the long term trend that has been positive for the prior 100 years or so and the new long term trend is downward?

jimjames

masonic wrote: »

So your prediction is that the summer of 2015 marks an inflection point in the long term trend that has been positive for the prior 100 years or so and the new long term trend is downward?

Obviously Capitalism is now over and we'll be joining the success of the North Koreans. People seem to forget what the stock market actually is and short term noise isn't relevant over the long term.

Consumerist

masonic wrote: »

So your prediction is that the summer of 2015 marks an inflection point in the long term trend that has been positive for the prior 100 years or so and the new long term trend is downward?

I wasn't making any predictions at all. The other mumbo-jumbo is a bit over my head, investment-wise. Looking at the graph you linked to, gave me the impression that returns have peaked and have been trending downwards since summer.

I don't feel qualified to make predictions on the basis of a casual observation. I leave that kind of thing to people who think they know better.

masonic

Consumerist wrote: »

I wasn't making any predictions at all. The other mumbo-jumbo is a bit over my head, investment-wise. Looking at the graph you linked to, gave me the impression that returns have peaked and have been trending downwards since summer.

I don't feel qualified to make predictions on the basis of a casual observation. I leave that kind of thing to people who think they know better.

A trend-line on a graph is used to extrapolate (or interpolate, but there is no use doing that when the data set is essentially continuous). If you think the long term trend is downward in this context, then you are implicitly making a prediction about the future. A phrase like "over the hill" looks like a prediction about what it is going to do in the future - it suggests the market is no longer capable of generating the returns it has done in the past.

So, perhaps I can be forgiven for reading meaning into your comments that wasn't intended. I didn't realise you were just commenting on the shapes you were seeing on your screen without intending to make any reference to the topic of this thread.