Mystery Collapse in Volumes...

iantojones40

Right, I posed this question on the ''Are houses affordable'' thread upstairs but it got ignored/overlooked so I thought I'd see if any one here can offer an explanation.

We're all aware of the large drop in volumes on the housing market over the last 12-18 months and the stock answer every time this subject is brought up is 'due to rampant HPI nobody can afford to move up the ladder anymore', however...

In my area (SK13,SK14) house prices have only risen very modestly since 2008 and according to LR figures are still below the 2007 highs, we also now have record low mortgage interest rates...and yet from Oct 2014-Dec 2015 in the above postcodes there has been a 40% decline in the numbers of properties on the market, with an almost 50% decline in new instructions.

So why since Oct 2014 (when there was a sharp drop in volumes, followed by a steady further decline) has everybody suddenly decided they can't or won't sell their houses?

Nike79

could be for 2 reasons:
1. people expect prices to rise even more
2. the prices are so high that people are not able to upsize and stick to what they have for now
3. more strick lending criteria since 2014

Rinoa

iantojones40 wrote: »

Right, I posed this question on the ''Are houses affordable'' thread upstairs but it got ignored/overlooked so I thought I'd see if any one here can offer an explanation.

We're all aware of the large drop in volumes on the housing market over the last 12-18 months and the stock answer every time this subject is brought up is 'due to rampant HPI nobody can afford to move up the ladder anymore', however...

So why since Oct 2014 (when there was a sharp drop in volumes, followed by a steady further decline) has everybody suddenly decided they can't or won't sell their houses?

Don't know where you've got the idea that house sales are stalling. Mortgage approvals are very healthy.

https://www.moneymarketing.co.uk/boe-mortgage-approvals-up-21/

iantojones40

I'm not necessarily disputing the fact that mortgage approvals are healthy, but the fact is the market volumes are massively down in most places, including my area despite only modest HPI... the two factors aren't mutually exclusive, In fact the healthy mortgage approvals just add to the mystery of the low volumes.

Thrugelmir

iantojones40 wrote: »

So why since Oct 2014 (when there was a sharp drop in volumes, followed by a steady further decline) has everybody suddenly decided they can't or won't sell their houses?

Perhaps people don't want to move. Not like buying a new car. Every few years. Moving incurs considerable costs and stress. Aging baby boomers perhaps. Many of whom are reluctant or struggling to downsize. Many people opt to rent out rather than sell as well.

danothy

iantojones40 wrote: »

We're all aware of the large drop in volumes on the housing market over the last 12-18 months ... In my area (SK13,SK14) ... from Oct 2014-Dec 2015 in the above postcodes there has been a 40% decline in the numbers of properties on the market, with an almost 50% decline in new instructions.

So why since Oct 2014 (when there was a sharp drop in volumes, followed by a steady further decline) has everybody suddenly decided they can't or won't sell their houses?

December's number is low because it takes about three months for the figures to be fully recorded, but completions in SK13/SK14 don't seem to have dropped off since October 2014 in quite the way you seem to be describing.

westernpromise

How many of those mortgage approvals are remortgage approvals?

cells

its simply not true that volumes have crashed

Jan --> Oct 2015 = 776,000
Jan --> Oct 2014 = 765,000

Virtually the same for England&Wales

iantojones40

Again, I'm not trying to be pedantic (I appreciate you posting the graphic) but regardless of the numbers of completions the fact remains that volumes are well down... it just means that those buyers that are completing have a far narrower selection to choose from!

cells

iantojones40 wrote: »

Again, I'm not trying to be pedantic (I appreciate you posting the graphic) but regardless of the numbers of completions the fact remains that volumes are well down... it just means that those buyers that are completing have a far narrower selection to choose from!

volumes are not down, let alone far down


They are down compared to a decade ago but there are good reasons for that and even then they are not far down

Mistermeaner

Localised anomalies? Maybe noone wants to move to (or out of) [Stockport?]