What assets will suffer in the global crash?

Linton

It all depends on what underlying assets you hold. The FTSE100 is rather unbalanced with a relatively high % of raw materials and oil. It has therefore been hit worse than a sensibly balanced portfolio. In my view it doesnt matter much whether you invest in a tracker, IT, or managed unit trust. The key question is what are the underlying assets.

I have no idea what the market will do in the future except I have faith that there is an overall upward trend. Anything else is noise.

TheTracker

redux wrote: »

I'm confused about the timing of this so-called crash, as different things are going in different directions at different times.

The headline is the market is down 20% from the peak at the end of April last year. They are talking about the FTSE100, I assume.

Further up the thread dunstonh discusses that some crashes are of the order of 20% down.

But if I look at some investment trusts I hold, some peaked at about the end of December and are down a few per cent from there, but still between minus 5% and plus 15% from last April.

Others were heading down in the second half of last year, and now 10% or 15% lower than April.

The viewpoint varies depending on whether we are looking at the well-known large companies, or smaller companies, or property, or other asset types. Funds only in resources are some of the worst.

So when is this global crash actually supposed to be, ahead of us, or much of it already happened? Do we expect more downs, doldrums for years, or are some things already back on the way up after a 5 to 10% setback?

To me personally, all I can see is confirmation of my belief that the merits of tracker funds are overrated in this type of market behaviour, and having fund managers with opinions on the companies they like seems to work better for the moment.

That's a peculiar confirmation. My equities are 100% in passive trackers at the moment. The equity part of my portfolio is down 4% since the end of April 2015, from a quick scan, and I haven't contributed since June. Once adding in my fixed interest my portfolio is probably down (numbers not at hand) about 1%. Would need to check those later but fairly confident.

grey_gym_sock

Linton wrote: »

We could be invaded by forces under the command of the arch-regent of the planet Zog. What would happen to your savings then?

the Zog are well-known for their respect for the rule of law and private property, so i wouldn't worry about that.

i'd be more concerned about their policy on sacrificing your first-born.

System

As long as my savings don't get taken off me then I'm good.

If things get so bad that my savings are stolen....and the same for all other savers.....then I am going to be like The Hulk x 10,000 and god knows what I'd do, I'm sure everyone in that position will be the same....

Civil War will break out, if not a World War.

But I presume things won't get that bad. But I know bugga all.

grey_gym_sock

dburford9 wrote: »

If things get so bad that my savings are stolen....and the same for all other savers.....then I am going to be like The Hulk x 10,000 and god knows what I'd do, I'm sure everyone in that position will be the same....

and this is precisely why the government isn't at all likely to let ppl lose savings, at least up to the FSCS limit. they don't want a large proportion of the electorate to be really angry.

for savings over the FSCS limit, the government would certainly rather it doesn't happen. but i wouldn't rely on that 100%.

TheTracker

Linton wrote: »

We could be invaded by forces under the command of the arch-regent of the planet Zog. What would happen to your savings then?

So that explains the assault on pensions. I always thought Osborne was otherworldly.

bigadaj

It's an odd world, and currently odder than in most times.

Governments printing huge amounts of money and failing to achieve the inflation they crave to inflate debt away, a competitive race to the bottom in terms of currency value, where most countries desperately want a weaker exchange rate.

It's all very well quoting the Barclays equity gilt studies as gospel on the basis that it's got 120 years of history, and I honestly can't think of any better asset class than equities currently, but when compared with interest rates that haven't been this low for over 300 years then who knows anymore.