RBS brace for a “cataclysmic year”

Rich2808

Generali wrote: »

I took your post to give tacit support for AEP's views. I apologize if that is not the case.

As I say, I do find it bizarre that people think that falling oil prices are anything other than a good thing. Clearly you are not among those with such peculiar ideas.

So you think falling prices are a good thing. As long of course as it's not falling house prices?!!

As with any transaction it depends what side you are on doesn't it?

Generali

Rich2808 wrote: »

So you think falling prices are a good thing. As long of course as it's not falling house prices?!!

As with any transaction it depends what side you are on doesn't it?

Oil isn't an asset it's a midway consumable that is used to produce other outputs. As a result changes in the oil price have very different effects to changes in house prices.

I've never been a champion of rapidly rising house prices. If you look back at what I've written over the last 10 years I've consistently pointed out the absurdity of house prices continuing to rise faster than GDP.

I would argue that the vast majority of people in the UK, and indeed the world, are buyers rather than sellers of oil and so benefit from lower rather than higher prices.

InvestInPoker

Generali wrote: »

I would argue that the vast majority of people in the UK, and indeed the world, are buyers rather than sellers of oil and so benefit from lower rather than higher prices.

We (the UK) have been a net importer of oil for several years now

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=16971.

Overall as a nation I agree that we are benefiting from these low crude prices. However the NE of Scotland is in turmoil due to it and there are quite a few oil companies who have a big effect on the FTSE 100....they have not had a good time of it in the past 18 months.

Generali

InvestInPoker wrote: »

We (the UK) have been a net importer of oil for several years now

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=16971.

Overall as a nation I agree that we are benefiting from these low crude prices. However the NE of Scotland is in turmoil due to it and there are quite a few oil companies who have a big effect on the FTSE 100....they have not had a good time of it in the past 18 months.

Oh I agree that it's not all honey and clover when the oil price falls. My argument is that for everyone in NE Scotland that loses their job there are many, many people not in NE Scotland that have their employment prospects enhanced by falling oil prices.

wotsthat

I purchased my first sub £1 diesel the other day about 22p cheaper than this time last year. Almost £1000/ year saving on my mileage.

The savings in the public sector must be staggering too. All those council trucks, bin wagons, police, ambulances and the like.

Generali

[STRIKE][/STRIKE]

wotsthat wrote: »

I purchased my first sub £1 diesel the other day about 22p cheaper than this time last year. Almost £1000/ year saving on my mileage.

The savings in the public sector must be staggering too. All those council trucks, bin wagons, police, ambulances and the like.

The savings of paying perhaps £5-10/wk for each of the 35,000,000 cars in the UK isn't to be sniffed at either.

Graham_Devon

wotsthat wrote: »

I purchased my first sub £1 diesel the other day about 22p cheaper than this time last year. Almost £1000/ year saving on my mileage.

The savings in the public sector must be staggering too. All those council trucks, bin wagons, police, ambulances and the like.

It's a very good point.

It's also why fuel duty should be reduced.

And is it law that VAT is charged on fuel duty? It's the only value added tax on raw tax that I know of?

tincans6

This smacks of calling a stock market downturn after the horse has bolted.
If this had been published 9 months ago it would have been a great call. (Ftse 100 close to 18% down on peak).

And nothing mentioned about the possibility of a gigantic bubble in bonds.

Coming from the hapless RBS it could easily be read as a massive buy signal (not sure where Neil Woodford is quoted in this article).

If you are planning to hold for 10+ year, it strikes me as a great time to buy. I still wouldn't be buying mining stocks, particularly those exposed to Iron Ore which will struggle to hold above much above $40 for the next decade.

At some stage in the next 6-18 months oil majors (Shell, BP) will look like terrific bargains for sustainable long term income along with good explorers (Cairn ?) as a higher risk punt.

tincans6

Graham_Devon wrote: »

It's a very good point.

It's also why fuel duty should be reduced.

And is it law that VAT is charged on fuel duty? It's the only value added tax on raw tax that I know of?

VAT in the UK is chargeable on the value of goods and all excise duties. So tobacco and alcohol (as the main examples) are treated exactly like fuel.

It's also why fuel duty should be reduced.

This is frankly insane. Not least from the point of what would you replace the tax revenue with, considering we still run a large deficit.

If anything there is an argument that duty should be increased as the oil price falls, providing it was subsequently reversed if the price increases.

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

It's a very good point.

It's also why fuel duty should be reduced.

And is it law that VAT is charged on fuel duty? It's the only value added tax on raw tax that I know of?

How much is the reduced fuel price saving you each year? Seems a bit greedy asking for the tax to be reduced too.

I'd prefer the government to take the fuel savings from the NHS, councils etc and reduce the deficit because the public sector is only going to squander them on light bulb fitters and find themselves short if/ when the price increases.

Plus there's a planet to save.