UK house price to crash as global asset prices unravel

Crashy_Time

padington wrote: »

No recent gains won't go on forever, London prices right now are however are going to go up because

1) Purchasing power by first time buyers is going to go up through new HTB scheme.
2) interest rates will stay much lower than people think for much longer
3) London is fairly unique in that it's supply is heavily restricted whilst it desirability factor and diversity factor is second to none.

When purchasing power decreases with new government schemes and we enter into an era of medium to high interest rates and when London desirability factor tanks we will see the end of the boom.

Neither of those factors are on the cards. The government wants HP inflation, it's a part of its economic strategy ( it just wants to tax BTL landlords for political economic reasons ). The era of Low interest rates is nowhere near over. Look what just happened when the U.S. Raised its rates. This era is here to stay.

That leaves a black swan event like a Corbyn like politician getting in power or a nuclear attack.

Both of which will happen one day I'm sure but in the next five years, not so sure.

Hence why myself and the majority of the market is betting on London property and will continue to do so for next couple of years at least.[/QUOTE]


:rotfl: Thought they were a dead cert one way bet for all time - Just think of cycling into the centre of the !!!!-pit they call LONDON! All the other little mortgage slaves around you weaving in and out of the pollution and horrendous traffic, VIVA LONDON! CENTRE OF THE KNOWN UNIVERSE! Imagine getting to your desk in the big glass building with the horrible soul sapping overhead lights and dreaming of putting your boss and all your debt soaked colleagues out of their misery before you open the window and...........O.K you get the picture :rotfl:


Is the market turmoil shaking your confidence a bit today Padders?

Crashy_Time

lisyloo wrote: »

Keep calm !!

Why is it people are prepared to look at property as a long term investment but panic when the ftse drops over a periods of days.
I'm investing for the long term and I'd like to buy at low prices so anyone with a pension should welcome low prices whilst they are buying.

As chuck has said, those who've invested should be unconcerned by short term volatility. If not it's their own fault.

The FTSE, the drops on the Dow today, the unfolding HPC in Aberdeen, the collapse in oil prices, all this should show anyone who is complacent about their "investment" that anything can happen, and it can happen quickly. When London property pops it will unravel fast and it will be far too late to sell up for most people.

padington

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Is the market turmoil shaking your confidence a bit today Padders?

No I'm just bloody glad I stuck to property and kept some power dry to boot.

Maybe time to buy some Sony and Netflix shares however.

Actually no, sod it, I'll just convert my attic and keep to the plan.

cells

:rotfl: Thought they were a dead cert one way bet for all time - Just think of cycling into the centre of the !!!!-pit they call LONDON!

I am not worried,

the last crash was a monster and everything went wrong a few banks even went down and the FTSE crashed to 3,500

And what happened to london? Prices went down 10% and then boomed 100%

what happened to businesses and asset prices?
well people discovered they and the public still had the same demands and needs and wants and that profitable businesses would be needed to fill those needs and wants and the FTSE duly recovered.

these rapid daily and monthly movements in share price are just ignorant human panic and confirmation bias. The underlying wealth of the world (eg factories and businesses are not destroyed) nor is the underlying needs and wants of people

of course governments can screw things up big time but the people left mostly alone will just keep on producing and consuming to fill their needs and wants

Crashy_Time

cells wrote: »

I am not worried,

the last crash was a monster and everything went wrong a few banks even went down and the FTSE crashed to 3,500

And what happened to london? Prices went down 10% and then boomed 100%

what happened to businesses and asset prices?
well people discovered they and the public still had the same demands and needs and wants and that profitable businesses would be needed to fill those needs and wants and the FTSE duly recovered.

these rapid daily and monthly movements in share price are just ignorant human panic and confirmation bias. The underlying wealth of the world (eg factories and businesses are not destroyed) nor is the underlying needs and wants of people

of course governments can screw things up big time but the people left mostly alone will just keep on producing and consuming to fill their needs and wants

Utter utter nonsense. You think the FTSE "recovered" because of genuine demand in the economy...........:rotfl: Pull the other one, it`s got interest rate cuts on it.

thequant

padington wrote: »

No recent gains won't go on forever, London prices right now are however are going to go up because

1) Purchasing power by first time buyers is going to go up through new HTB scheme.
2) interest rates will stay much lower than people think for much longer
3) London is fairly unique in that it's supply is heavily restricted whilst it desirability factor and diversity factor is second to none.

When purchasing power decreases with new government schemes and we enter into an era of medium to high interest rates and when London desirability factor tanks we will see the end of the boom.

Neither of those factors are on the cards. The government wants HP inflation, it's a part of its economic strategy ( it just wants to tax BTL landlords for political economic reasons ). The era of Low interest rates is nowhere near over. Look what just happened when the U.S. Raised its rates. This era is here to stay.

That leaves a black swan event like a Corbyn like politician getting in power or a nuclear attack.

Both of which will happen one day I'm sure but in the next five years, not so sure.

Hence why myself and the majority of the market is betting on London property and will continue to do so for next couple of years at least.

Also when the !!!!!! really hits the fan and really big UK banks look days away from folding. What do you think the government will do, keep the promise to honour all monies lost or quickly move the goal posts to keep the nation from bankruptcy ?

At the end of the day when things go really wrong economically and you own a house, the house tends to remain standing with you inside it. Most of the other stuff is just promises written on paper and can much more easily be torn up and left to flutter into the wind.

brilliant post, possibly the best I have ever read on here.

cells

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Utter utter nonsense. You think the FTSE "recovered" because of genuine demand in the economy...........:rotfl: Pull the other one, it`s got interest rate cuts on it.

Most the demand in the economy hardly changed at all

For instance did you eat less food in 2008-2010?
Did you heat you home less?
Did you drive your car less?
Did you use less electricity?
Dos you buy less cloths?

Overall the answer is probably yes I did use less of those things from 0% to 5% but that meant businesses were still providing 95-100% and those businesses have to be profitable or they wouldn't do what they do.

So a flash crash to 3500 was then recovered a few years later when people realised the world was not ending and businesses would be profitable again

Crashy_Time

thequant wrote: »

brilliant post, possibly the best I have ever read on here.

Really, you should read more IMO :rotfl: The house is still standing, yes, it is the same hovel someone paid 20k for in the 80`s, the value has changed dramatically though, that is the problem with debt leverage.

Mistermeaner

Has the crash happened yet?

Did we predict a particular month?