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Debate House Prices
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UK house price to crash as global asset prices unravel
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if the population of london starts to fall, then yes, rents and price will start to fall too
when are you predicting that the population will fall?
The population of London increased from 2007 to 2009 - it didn't stop house prices falling. It's about the availability of cash and funds to buy houses which determines house prices and drives them up. If it was just about the numbers of people Mexico City would have more expensive housing than London as it has twice as many residents.
London prices - well zones 3-6 - are up 50 per cent in the space of 3 years from what was a high base already. Could you not perhaps conceive that if there is less money sloshing in the system - as current events could lead to - prices could just possibly fall. Notwithstanding all those migrants we are importing doing low wage jobs - who probably aren't all going to be able to afford to buy £400k one bed flats of course.
Not saying it's going to happen - but it could do.0 -
The population of London increased from 2007 to 2009 - it didn't stop house prices falling. It's about the availability of cash and funds to buy houses which determines house prices and drives them up. If it was just about the numbers of people Mexico City would have more expensive housing than London as it has twice as many residents.
London prices - well zones 3-6 - are up 50 per cent in the space of 3 years from what was a high base already. Could you not perhaps conceive that if there is less money sloshing in the system - as current events could lead to - prices could just possibly fall. Notwithstanding all those migrants we are importing doing low wage jobs - who probably aren't all going to be able to afford to buy £400k one bed flats of course.
Not saying it's going to happen - but it could do.
the problem with the idea of rationing mortgages so prices stay low is that the mortgages will be rationed to those who would buy if mortgages were not rationed but prices were higher
what that means is, if we go back to 2008-2010, prices were lower and thus it was cheaper to buy, but it was no more affordable in that hordes of FTBs were not able to jump in and buy
We still have half the country where prices are cheap. The NE the NW the E and W midlands and Y&H prices are cheap yet the rental sector is growing in those areas and the owner stock shrinking. Which is very strong evidence that price plays a secondary role to mortgage availability in determining who owns. Something Hamish was saying five years ago when I thought it was mostly BS but now after seeing it its clear the scotsman was right0 -
anchovypizza wrote: »THE TELEGRAPH
UK house price to crash as global asset prices unravel
Asset prices around the world are collapsing as the global economy slows and UK housing will not escape
By John Ficenec
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/property/house-prices/120...
House prices have broken free from reality and defied gravity for far too long, but they are an asset like anything else, and there are six clear reasons a nasty correction looms in the coming year .
If the fall of oil and commodities is anything to go by, then we are in for one hell of a correction in property.0 -
Thrugelmir wrote: »Corporations require shareholders to fund them.
Only to start up or inject extra capital.
Once up and running they are funded by customers.0 -
The population of London increased from 2007 to 2009 - it didn't stop house prices falling. It's about the availability of cash and funds to buy houses which determines house prices and drives them up. If it was just about the numbers of people Mexico City would have more expensive housing than London as it has twice as many residents.
London prices - well zones 3-6 - are up 50 per cent in the space of 3 years from what was a high base already. Could you not perhaps conceive that if there is less money sloshing in the system - as current events could lead to - prices could just possibly fall. Notwithstanding all those migrants we are importing doing low wage jobs - who probably aren't all going to be able to afford to buy £400k one bed flats of course.
Not saying it's going to happen - but it could do.
No, I don't think that the population is the only factor in the price of houses in London: clearly availability of mortgages is a major factor too as is the ability to pay the mortgage.
The increase in population will increase the aggregate wish for housing which, if mortgages are availble will contribute to an upward pressure on prices.
The arrival of immigrants (or others) unable to afford 400k flats in London nevertheless increases demand for rental property, which all other things being equal, will increase house prices as landlord seek to satisfy that rental demand by trying to buy more property.
Whether the new property taxes will alter the balance remains to be seen.0 -
No, I don't think that the population is the only factor in the price of houses in London: clearly availability of mortgages is a major factor too as is the ability to pay the mortgage.
The increase in population will increase the aggregate wish for housing which, if mortgages are availble will contribute to an upward pressure on prices.
The arrival of immigrants (or others) unable to afford 400k flats in London nevertheless increases demand for rental property, which all other things being equal, will increase house prices as landlord seek to satisfy that rental demand by trying to buy more property.
Whether the new property taxes will alter the balance remains to be seen.
Brighton and Bristol rents up 18% this year ...Proudly voted remain. A global union of countries is the only way to commit global capital to the rule of law.0 -
No, I don't think that the population is the only factor in the price of houses in London: clearly availability of mortgages is a major factor too as is the ability to pay the mortgage.
The increase in population will increase the aggregate wish for housing which, if mortgages are availble will contribute to an upward pressure on prices.
The arrival of immigrants (or others) unable to afford 400k flats in London nevertheless increases demand for rental property, which all other things being equal, will increase house prices as landlord seek to satisfy that rental demand by trying to buy more property.
Whether the new property taxes will alter the balance remains to be seen.
I seem to be more bearish than most (nutters excluded of course) on the effect of the property taxes, I think that they will dampen London property prices. But I do prefer to err on the side of caution, but be prepared for good news, rather than get my hopes up, and setting myself up for disappointment.
Obviously I know about the supply and demand argument, but I'm not so sure that investors will be rushing in to pay another 3% stamp duty, and again I'm not sure how many will escape the extra stamp duty by buying with a limited company (I don't think that the rules have been fully explained for that, or have they?).Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one birdThe only time Chuck Norris was wrong was when he thought he had made a mistakeChuck Norris puts the "laughter" in "manslaughter".I've started running again, after several injuries had forced me to stop0 -
chucknorris wrote: »I seem to be more bearish than most (nutters excluded of course) on the effect of the property taxes, I think that they will dampen London property prices. But I do prefer to err on the side of caution, but be prepared for good news, rather than get my hopes up, and setting myself up for disappointment.
Obviously I know about the supply and demand argument, but I'm not so sure that investors will be rushing in to pay another 3% stamp duty, and again I'm not sure how many will escape the extra stamp duty by buying with a limited company (I don't think that the rules have been fully explained for that, or have they?).
I was a little worried but the latest figures show the rental market expanded by >440,000 units last year and only ~100,000 BTL mortgages for purchase were given out. There is a rapid structural shift to renting even in cheap affordable parts of the country. It seems to be down to far to restrictive mortgage rationing.
I can see maybe a pause in prices while rents catch up a bit but overall I am still positive that in 5-10 years time buying in 2015 would have been a good decision.0
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