Worth selling now? Thoughts on London property market in 2017?

brit1234

economic wrote: »

I'm not sure its the BTL investors who caused prices to rise silly amounts. the rise between 2012-2014 in London was due to pent up demand from FTB. you saw generally up and coming areas outperform prime areas.

It was actually the ripple effect from central London then the add on of Help to Buy.

Basically the uber Rich from round the world started buying central London using as a money safe buying at silly inflated prices. The original center London people then sold up to them taking the extra cash to buy bigger homes in Chelsea Fulham Chiswick, Nottinghill sending those prices sky rocketing. Other people then could not afford to buy there and bought further out creating bigger demand and pushing prices up in ripples going out from center.

Help to Buy then was used to help reasonably well off people buy further and further out down the train lines just like Brixton and later further away.

It wasn't demand but flow of money from investors and help to Buy. The investor money has dried up but help to buy is still there. There are bigger price falls in the center now rippling out. Help to buy may now start making inward roads towards the center as prices get cheaper.

I think generally prices will get cheaper but till help to buy is got rid of there will be affordability issues unless the stamp duty, buy to let changes have a big effect or interest rate rises occur.

Nike79

brit1234 wrote: »

It was actually the ripple effect from central London then the add on of Help to Buy.

Basically the uber Rich from round the world started buying central London using as a money safe buying at silly inflated prices. The original center London people then sold up to them taking the extra cash to buy bigger homes in Chelsea Fulham Chiswick, Nottinghill sending those prices sky rocketing. Other people then could not afford to buy there and bought further out creating bigger demand and pushing prices up in ripples going out from center.

I can agree HTB scheme stimulated the prices but i disagree that prime property market trends has considerable effects on the property market for "other people". I in fact think that overseas property investment only helps to top up the budget as most of those properties are sitting empty with owners paying crazy fees for maintenance, service chargers and council taxes. And we are talking about the small patches in London Zone 1 only, even if this market is released to normal people for affordable prices it wont help to satisfy huge demand in London.

prime property market has been historically owned by British Ultra rich ( and their ancestors) and European aristocrats (French in particular) - and now we have overseas buyers from emerging markets replacing the old residents. This market has been always confined to particular areas not in a scope of Joe Bloggs market. the price of those properties has been always dictated by its own rules.

The recent rise in price is a natural effect of improved economic activity, HTB scheme and low banking rates as well as rising population, I'm talking about London here, i don't know the situation in other parts of England.

caronoel

brit1234 wrote: »

I think generally prices will get cheaper but till help to buy is got rid of there will be affordability issues unless the stamp duty, buy to let changes have a big effect or interest rate rises occur.

All these years after your 2009 prediction that house prices would drop 50% by Christmas and you're still holding out for a house price crash brit? How endearing.

Your house price predictions are a nonsense and you are regularly laughed off the Debate house prices board, which is probably why you are scared to post this sort of !!!! over there.

How is your one man buyers strike going?

:rotfl::rotfl:

mayonnaise

brit1234 wrote: »

Its difficult to say. Logic says prices should continue to fall and spread outwards however just when you think they will fall some big intervention comes in out of no where.

I believe central London prices and luxury flat prices will continue to fall. The far east property investors are now clearly pulling out due to their econic crisies in the various countries. Russian sanctions are hitting top end of the market as well. There is also huge amounts of properties being built everywhere, majority luxury aimed at investors.

However then you have Help to buy propping up the lower end of the market. Now for London that is giving a 40% deposit pushing prices up at lower end of the market.

No one really knows what the effect on the lower end of the market by the buy to let changes and stamp duty changes, we should see by summer. Then there is the interest rate rise which might come but it wouldn't suprise me if it is put back yet again.

There is also increasing talk of a 2017 international recession which will could include house prices props again.

brit1234 wrote: »

It was actually the ripple effect from central London then the add on of Help to Buy.

Basically the uber Rich from round the world started buying central London using as a money safe buying at silly inflated prices. The original center London people then sold up to them taking the extra cash to buy bigger homes in Chelsea Fulham Chiswick, Nottinghill sending those prices sky rocketing. Other people then could not afford to buy there and bought further out creating bigger demand and pushing prices up in ripples going out from center.

Help to Buy then was used to help reasonably well off people buy further and further out down the train lines just like Brixton and later further away.

It wasn't demand but flow of money from investors and help to Buy. The investor money has dried up but help to buy is still there. There are bigger price falls in the center now rippling out. Help to buy may now start making inward roads towards the center as prices get cheaper.

I think generally prices will get cheaper but till help to buy is got rid of there will be affordability issues unless the stamp duty, buy to let changes have a big effect or interest rate rises occur.

Dear reader. Please beware, this individual has previously predicted 50% house price falls, silver at $500/ounce and a FTSE collapse in 2013. Just so you know.

Nike79

mayonnaise wrote: »

Dear reader. Please beware, this individual has previously predicted 50% house price falls, silver at $500/ounce and a FTSE collapse in 2013. Just so you know.

I must admit i was the one who was watching the property prices in London for the last 10 years secretly hoping for little crash by Xmas every year while continuing to pay rents. When the actual little crash happened my job was unstable and I didnt have enough deposit either so couldn't buy then. In fact i have a lot if friends who are predicting crash every year and then crying over the rents they wasted money on and we the rents aint cheap in London. but at the end of the day there is a rent generation growing strong so may be a house ownership wont be a big deal in a few decades.

I guess its a gamble. I predict the crash may happen at some point but then the prices will go up again long term.

Nike79

another question, googled but couldn't find any info on that. I'm kind of sure about the answer but still...

If i let my residential flat and live and pay rent somewhere else can i somehow deduct the rents i pay elsewhere as expense from the income i receive on the flat i let???

caronoel

Nike79 wrote: »

another question, googled but couldn't find any info on that. I'm kind of sure about the answer but still...

If i let my residential flat and live and pay rent somewhere else can i somehow deduct the rents i pay elsewhere as expense from the income i receive on the flat i let???

Short answer is no

ANGLICANPAT

Nike79 wrote: »

If i let my residential flat and live and pay rent somewhere else can i somehow deduct the rents i pay elsewhere as expense from the income i receive on the flat i let???

No - shame isnt it. Same as for cgt tax purposes, during those rented out years they see your owned flat as a second home rather than it still being an exempt main residence even though you still have to fork out for renting a flat elsewhere.

One of my thoughts for a London flat, would be weighing up the likelihood of costly repairs during a rental period. Depends on what your property and set up is, but if its due for a new roof ,chimney work, major pointing, major external decorating etc,especially if requiring scaffolding /in a conservation area - if you got a few big jobs due all together, it could get really expensive and might be something you'd rather not face.

Nike79

ANGLICANPAT wrote: »

No - shame isnt it. Same as for cgt tax purposes, during those rented out years they see your owned flat as a second home rather than it still being an exempt main residence even though you still have to fork out for renting a flat elsewhere.

One of my thoughts for a London flat, would be weighing up the likelihood of costly repairs during a rental period. Depends on what your property and set up is, but if its due for a new roof ,chimney work, major pointing, major external decorating etc,especially if requiring scaffolding /in a conservation area - if you got a few big jobs due all together, it could get really expensive and might be something you'd rather not face.

I kind of new the answer but was hoping for some hidden tax loops.

My property is purpose built and its not very old although its not a new build so luckily I'm not going to face big external jobs myself except for minor internal redecorations and tear and wear however i have quite hefty service chargers :eek: ( thanks to the lift which i dont use and the part-time gardener taking care of tiny flower bed).