China and UK house proces

TickersPlaysPop

One possibility is a large exit from property in London where investors need the money.... this could be not just Chinese investors but many global investors.

That crash would ripple out to whole of UK.

But I don't think it would happen I think it will go the other way with residential property being the only place to get safe return.... look at what happened to the Japanese residential property market and their intergenerational mortgages.

padington

TickersPlaysPop wrote: »

One possibility is a large exit from property in London where investors need the money.... this could be not just Chinese investors but many global investors.

That crash would ripple out to whole of UK.

But I don't think it would happen I think it will go the other way with residential property being the only place to get safe return.... look at what happened to the Japanese residential property market and their intergenerational mortgages.

You don't smuggle money out of a country only to repatriate back just when the Chinese government looks desperate and the markets look dangerous.

Maybe the Chinese government themselves might repatriate some assets in an act of desperation. However I would imagine at that point every man and their dog would be doing exactly the opposite, hence why the government would have to do it in the first place.

I think the risk comes when a UK bank or a number of large funds admit they have a huge Chinese shareholding after an enormous Chinese crash that doesn't recover and thats the time to worry.

Until then I think it's wind in the sails.

Another case of 'safe as houses'.

Generali

chewmylegoff wrote: »

India has similar capital controls and that hasn't stopped every single rich Indian person being able to move large sums of wealth out of the country. I believe the traditional method of circumvention is to raise a loan in a foreign jurisdiction offset against a large cash balance with the same bank held in an Indian account. It is helpful to involve the Swiss branch...

In China there were relationships set up between a Hong Kong bank and a Chinese one. The Chinese bank could get your money to HK which does not have capital controls.

Total outflows in 2015 were apparently a little over $500,000,000,000 although they do have $3,000,000,000,000 left so no need to panic just yet. A devaluation is definitely on the cards though.

padington

Generali wrote: »

In China there were relationships set up between a Hong Kong bank and a Chinese one. The Chinese bank could get your money to HK which does not have capital controls.

Total outflows in 2015 were apparently a little over $500,000,000,000 although they do have $3,000,000,000,000 left so no need to panic just yet. A devaluation is definitely on the cards though.

What are the consenquences of a devaluation ?

Crashy_Time

padington wrote: »

What are the consenquences of a devaluation ?

Wood Green is f*ucked.

mystic_trev

mwpt wrote: »

I don't know why anyone would choose incest anywhere. Maybe their woes are so great it's driven them nuts.

I believe it's de rigueur in Wood Green.

Generali

padington wrote: »

What are the consenquences of a devaluation ?

Lower prices for Chinese exports and higher prices for Chinese imports. Plus any compnies that have borrowed in Dollars face higher debt servicing costs.

The latter is often the killer for emerging market countries as the companies are unable to borrow in local currency. Their debt servicing costs become unmanageable (this is the fate of Venezuela this year I suspect). Will that happen in China? No idea as I don't know how many firms have borrowed abroad. I believe that China has good functioning capital markets in Renimbi/Yuan so maybe not that much.

Thrugelmir

padington wrote: »

Anyone think they have an idea how this Chinese market crash might play out with UK house prices ?

Investments will be liquidated. More so if exchange rates are favourable.

Rich2808

padington wrote: »

Funny you should mention Wood Green. Cross rail 2 coming to either Turnpike Lane or Wood Green has the area as the current place to be.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/selling-up-home-and-moving-in-london-each-year-for-last-20-years-would-have-earned-you-over-1m-a3149731.html

Anyway, back to the point, why should the Chinese chose to incest in Sydney to shelter from Chinese woes when Sydney is so tied to success of China ?

I do find your posts amusing - are they parodies?

Do you know how much Crossrail 2 is going to cost - around £30 billion. It may be built one day - but we may be six feet under by the time it is. The debts for Crossrail are going to take another 20 years too pay off and there is no funding package in place for Crossrail 2.

I will believe it when I see it.

PS are the Chinese really committing incest in Sydney?!

Generali

Rich2808 wrote: »

I do find your posts amusing - are they parodies?

Do you know how much Crossrail 2 is going to cost - around £30 billion. It may be built one day - but we may be six feet under by the time it is. The debts for Crossrail are going to take another 20 years too pay off and there is no funding package in place for Crossrail 2.

I will believe it when I see it.

PS are the Chinese really committing incest in Sydney?!

Some Australians are really quite pretty. You'd think they'd manage to find a local boy or girl.