China and UK house proces

padington

Anyone think they have an idea how this Chinese market crash might play out with UK house prices ?

Generali

padington wrote: »

Anyone think they have an idea how this Chinese market crash might play out with UK house prices ?

I suspect it could go either way: Chinese asset owners might see UK (London) housing as a safe haven, rather as happened with UK buyers after the dot com crash or Chinese asset owners won't have the money to be able to buy in the UK any more.

An unappreciated problem is that the PBC is running out of foreign currency which might make buying problematic unless sellers are going to accept Renimbi for their house!

cells

Generali wrote: »

I suspect it could go either way: Chinese asset owners might see UK (London) housing as a safe haven, rather as happened with UK buyers after the dot com crash or Chinese asset owners won't have the money to be able to buy in the UK any more.

An unappreciated problem is that the PBC is running out of foreign currency which might make buying problematic unless sellers are going to accept Renimbi for their house!

does the fall of the foreign reserves suggest that people are moving capital out of china (and thus into something else outside of china).

cells

I dont think the Chinese economy is going to be anything other than positive for London. For all the talk of the slowdown in china her economy is about ~5x the size it was a decade ago

Generali

cells wrote: »

does the fall of the foreign reserves suggest that people are moving capital out of china (and thus into something else outside of china).

I think so. It's hard to prove because moving more than $50k out of China without permission is illegal. However, a couple of banks have been busted for facilitating getting around FX controls recently.

happylucky

I would have expected more stringent capital controls by now to curtail investment outside China. I'd be moving my local currency out of there pretty damn quick before that happened (and expected further devaluation kicks in). Still more likely to buy in Sydney than London, though, and couple it with a "rich foreigner" visa from the Australian government of they're still up for grabs.

Crashy_Time

cells wrote: »

I dont think the Chinese economy is going to be anything other than positive for London. For all the talk of the slowdown in china her economy is about ~5x the size it was a decade ago

Guy on Bloomberg was trying to say that as well, but he didn`t sound very convincing though. To be fair he was American and talking about the global economy and TBH most of the world doesn`t give a toss what happens to London.

chewmylegoff

padington wrote: »

Anyone think they have an idea how this Chinese market crash might play out with UK house prices ?

Generally I am not sure but I am absolutely certain that it will have a positive impact on the price of terraced houses in Wood Green. I am revising my estimate from +147% by next Thursday to +183% by midday on Wednesday.

chewmylegoff

Generali wrote: »

I think so. It's hard to prove because moving more than $50k out of China without permission is illegal. However, a couple of banks have been busted for facilitating getting around FX controls recently.

India has similar capital controls and that hasn't stopped every single rich Indian person being able to move large sums of wealth out of the country. I believe the traditional method of circumvention is to raise a loan in a foreign jurisdiction offset against a large cash balance with the same bank held in an Indian account. It is helpful to involve the Swiss branch...

padington

chewmylegoff wrote: »

Generally I am not sure but I am absolutely certain that it will have a positive impact on the price of terraced houses in Wood Green. I am revising my estimate from +147% by next Thursday to +183% by midday on Wednesday.

Funny you should mention Wood Green. Cross rail 2 coming to either Turnpike Lane or Wood Green has the area as the current place to be.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/selling-up-home-and-moving-in-london-each-year-for-last-20-years-would-have-earned-you-over-1m-a3149731.html

Anyway, back to the point, why should the Chinese chose to incest in Sydney to shelter from Chinese woes when Sydney is so tied to success of China ?

mwpt

padington wrote: »

Anyway, back to the point, why should the Chinese chose to incest in Sydney to shelter from Chinese woes when Sydney is so tied to success of China ?

I don't know why anyone would choose incest anywhere. Maybe their woes are so great it's driven them nuts.