Of boom and bust

happylucky

mwpt wrote: »

That is the problem I am having. I divest mostly into cash in late last year but in the last few days had a rethink and went partly back into shares. I'm now wondering if I was too hasty, though I realise this is silly thinking, I should be in for the long haul.

I have a fair chunk of equity in housing already, in the form of my own house. Shares and cash is where the rest is. Precious metals? Been on a bear trend for a long time and still not sure we've seen the bottom of this. Bonds?... bleh.

Unfortunately, it does seem as though land is one of the few investments going that is still yielding well and experiencing capital growth. At least, land in the right areas.

it's tricky isn't it. I think there's quite a way to fall yet, but to be fair I'm quite risk averse having made some sizeable (paper) losses from the dot com crash. I'm planning to stick toes in from next month, but need to do a great deal more homework before that! I should probably stop reading zero hedge for a bit too else I'll remain paralyzed with fear forever.

happylucky

Generali wrote: »

. Aussie firms pay out 8+% to lenders. High risk though (IMHO).

Avoid?

Oilies and miners. Also junk bond funds as they will get hit by smaller oil companies and servicing companies going bust. Oil companies and miners going bust will be a theme of 2016 I think. Glencore might be a good short. RIO and BHP will be raging buys at some point but not right now I think.

As always, time will tell.

ETA: Heck, I forgot to add. Avoid FTSE ETFs as they will get hit by the mining/oilies bust IMO and definitely avoid synthetic ETFs even if they're cheaper than ETFs underwritten by proper assets, not a basket of crap that the investment bank picked up on the tube that morning.

Thanks a lot very helpful and I'll look at these in more detail. I also find peer to peer interesting, however I'm a serial expat and the tax implications seem really complex for my position. On the plus side I'm now living in a country where I get over 10% on my current account which feels great until I remember the currency keeps devaluing!

chucknorris

kinger101 wrote: »

I'll send you my sort code and account number in a private message. I can look after it for you.

Is this a completely free service that you are offering, or is there an annual fee?

BobQ

I like the idea of banning credit cards or at least restricting them to a low credit limit.

Mistermeaner

BobQ wrote: »

I like the idea of banning credit cards or at least restricting them to a low credit limit.

That's because you are a communist

I think thick people should be deported. That would also help.

mwpt

Funny quora take on "secular stagnation"

https://www.quora.com/What-is-different-about-the-economic-expansion-countries-faced-from-1948-1978-from-that-of-1978-2008-Why-did-some-countries-stagnate

The expansion from the the first period in europe and america was denoted by the fordist compromise which allowed labour to share in the expanding productivity of western economies. As such the boom relied a lot on domestic demand.

The later expansion was denoted by the fordist breakdown as capital shifted production overseas following nixons thawing of relations with china and also the rise of east asia. As such the later expansion was supply side.

Today supply capacity far outstrips demand as asian workers are paid too low to make up for the lower incomes of western workers. As such secular stagnation has set in meaning an era of low inflation and weak real income growth without continual monetary and fiscal stimulus and/or a credit expansion to temporarily juice demand.

The economic history of the west in 3 paragraphs. Im very productive on the toilet these days.

cells

many factors influenced the development of nations but I think most people do not realise how recent the wealth of the west is

in the first half of the 1900s most of the west was very poor so much so that even in Britian (the richest nation on earth) some children went to school without shoes as their parents could not afford them.


Only after WW2 did the west start to get its act together.

Two big factors were finally the arrival of mass eletricity and factories producing cheap goods for the masses. Another was the green revolution which mostly took place after the war (and in some nations not until the 1970s) which massively increased grain production and productivity of farming.


I dont think the west is stagnating, but its going to be difficult to ever match the magic that happen in the 30-40 years after the war. Both manufacturing and agriculture changed and improved beyond recognition. Maybe the near-AI software revolution of 2020-2050 can come close