"Thousands" of London flats to come to the market

Crashy_Time

chucknorris wrote: »

But what is your opinion worth? If I sell now I would have to pay about £330k CGT (and my wife almost double that), add to that my current low margin tracker mortgages are saving me over £28k per annum (from where the base rate was before the downturn) both are very strong arguments for staying in the market (for now).

EDIT: If I was younger I wouldn't even be considering getting out.

Well the longer you wait the less CGT you will have to pay, so that seems to make sense.

Crashy_Time

chucknorris wrote: »

No It doesn't make sense to rush into selling! It makes much more sense to carry on making the £100k per annum profit (for now and have a few more years of low mortgage rates and use of the £330k GCT that I would otherwise pay). I'm not intending to sell because the model doesn't work, it does, and very well too. I'm intending to sell because I only have around 30 years to spend all the equity, so at some point I need to get started, because there is a lot of equity (before my death), but I am at least (all things being equal) 2 years away from the optimum time to sell.

Nobody knows how long they will live, if you like spending money the time to sell would have been before the sea change for property happened. You are going to see more tax on your profit and the value of your properties falling as the masses start trying to unload. As they say, timing is everything.

cells

mwpt wrote: »

Don't take my comments personally btw. My partner always tells me when I express my views I tend to do so in a way that comes across as too judgemental.

I very much believe in incentives and I also believe that humans tend to look out for their own interests foremost, myself included. I believe that is normal, inevitable and not in itself a bad thing, just so long as we manage it appropriately. And my interests lie in being able to own a nice home without fear of financial armageddon ruining me. In this, I am very much against massive runaway HPI built on high amounts of debt. Because ultimately, that's bad for everyone (except for a few who cash in at the lucky times), and everyone includes me.

To get specific re the nurse. Encouraging someone to lie on their mortgage application has a measurable result in that they can bid more for a house than they would otherwise. This negatively affects other people. It might be a small impact but a lot of small impacts add up. It's not just the nurse, it's the entire system skewed in favour of existing owners and setting - what I believe are dangerous and ultimately impossible to uphold - narratives that you can never lose on housing. It encourages the wrong type of risk taking behaviour.

It all boils down to me not believing in anything that seems to good to be true. For 20+ years owning property in London has been too good to be true. BTL investment all over the place was too good to be true, even to the point that rates were slashed which bailed out a lot of over-leveraged speculation.

Right now, I realise how wrong I was to bet against that too good to be true narrative in property. I'm in the game now and I don't have a clue when it will correct itself, but it will, inevitably, one day. And it would be better for everyone if we could soften the impact, by not doing stupid things like setting dangerous incentives.

Housing has not been that good an investment in about half of England.

eg prices in most of the NE, NW, Y&H are Lower than 10 years ago in nominal terms and a big loss in real terms.

Even the E-Midlands and W-Midlands only went up 4% and 2% practically flat in nominal terms vs 10 years ago and a substantial loss in real terms

Those five regions of England are over half the population and half the housing stock. Down in real terms vs 10 years ago

It is only really London that has been the superstar over the last 10 years. especially inner London up closer to 120%

Of course geared up 4 x via a mortgage a 120% increase in prices lends itself to a nearly 600% increase in equity invested. But the poor sods geared up by a mortgage in the NE ten years ago are up 0% on equity invested.

chewmylegoff

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Nobody knows how long they will live, if you like spending money the time to sell would have been before the sea change for property happened. You are going to see more tax on your profit and the value of your properties falling as the masses start trying to unload. As they say, timing is everything.

You are without a doubt the most boring and ineffective internet troll that the world has ever seen. The trolling equivalent of the Scottish football team.

chucknorris

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Nobody knows how long they will live, if you like spending money the time to sell would have been before the sea change for property happened. You are going to see more tax on your profit and the value of your properties falling as the masses start trying to unload. As they say, timing is everything.

Of course nobody knows how long they will live, yet decisions still have to be made where someone's longevity is a key factor, for example what do you think actuaries do when they evaluate annuities? Spin a roulette wheel? :rotfl:

lisyloo

I think many people do have something of a rough idea. For example many of my grandparents lived into their 80's so I expect to make it to about 90 given medical advances.
I have friends/colleagues who have relatives who've all died young and their expectations are affected in fact one of them is already dead (at 46).

It's not scientific of course, but I'm certainly saving fo an old age and might consider an annuity if it looks like I'll be one of the "winners" from that product.
I also believe in enjoying myself now as I don't expect to be doing scuba diving or riding a motorbike in my 70's.
I think we all have a some expectations. For many women there is an expectation of being widowed whereas many men never expect to be on their own. Parents expect their children to die before them etc.
We may not be aware of these expectations but not many parents are prepared for the death of their children.

mystic_trev

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Nobody knows how long they will live

Although it's pretty certain you'll still be renting when you die.

chucknorris

lisyloo wrote: »

I think many people do have something of a rough idea. For example many of my grandparents lived into their 80's so I expect to make it to about 90 given medical advances.
I have friends/colleagues who have relatives who've all died young and their expectations are affected in fact one of them is already dead (at 46).

It's not scientific of course, but I'm certainly saving fo an old age and might consider an annuity if it looks like I'll be one of the "winners" from that product.
I also believe in enjoying myself now as I don't expect to be doing scuba diving or riding a motorbike in my 70's.
I think we all have a some expectations. For many women there is an expectation of being widowed whereas many men never expect to be on their own. Parents expect their children to die before them etc.
We may not be aware of these expectations but not many parents are prepared for the death of their children.

There are a number of longevity websites which can give you an idea based upon:

Your family history (previous longevity/illnesses etc.)
Your diet
Your exercise routine
Your alcohol consumption (my vice)
Whether you smoke
Other lifestyle choices

Of course you still have to avoid getting knocked over by a bus, or similar one off random events. I honestly don't think 70's is as old as it used to be, although I have to say, riding a motorbike never appealed to me at any age, but each to their own.

chucknorris

chewmylegoff wrote: »

You are without a doubt the most boring and ineffective internet troll that the world has ever seen. The trolling equivalent of the Scottish football team.

That is grossly unfair! Scotland aren't consistently that bad (only occasionally).

The-Joker

If WE DO LEAVE the EU, all those migrants have to leave, leaving thousands of flats empty