"Thousands" of London flats to come to the market

wotsthat

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Something you never do of course

I do it all the time. Pretty pointless pretending I'm the only person in the world unaffected by confirmation bias.

Crashy_Time

wotsthat wrote: »

I do it all the time. Pretty pointless pretending I'm the only person in the world unaffected by confirmation bias.

Pretending that mortgaged up punters in London won`t soil themselves and panic if there is any mention of significant price drops is also pretty pointless.

cells

Crashy_Time wrote: »

If anything starts losing 40% of it`s "value" in London there will be panic all the way down the food chain.

if your the other side of the coin, i have a lot of confidence

chewmylegoff

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Why not have a look at the Cluttons website to see the sort of stuff they are talking about. Or Frank Knight. You don't need to make everything such hard work when it's clear as day plenty of multi millon pound apartments are being marketed at the foreign investor.

There's stuff out there outside of Battersea power station.

http://www.cluttons.com

Of course some of the flats are multi-million pound jobs, but given that only 54,000 properties have been sold for more than £1m in London during the last decade (source http://www.cityam.com/228080/london-property-prices-heres-how-many-houses-have-sold-for-1m-so-far-this-year-and-over-the-past-five-years) it seems quite unlikely that all of the 60,000 flats referred to in the article, or even the majority of them, have changed hands in the multi-million pound bracket...

It seems to me that pretty much anything new build in London is aggressively marketed to rich investors overseas because the developer needs to sell them off plan as early as possible in their project and there are a lot more rich people with cash to invest in the world outside the UK than there are in the UK. It is also easier to convince someone that hasn't been to London and isn't going to come any time soon that e.g. Stratford is an "up and coming area" and buying a cramped 2 bed flat there for half a million quid is a good idea.

AG47

Crashy_Time wrote: »

If anything starts losing 40% of it`s "value" in London there will be panic all the way down the food chain.

Yes and this is happening in 2016

martinsurrey

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Pretending that mortgaged up punters in London won`t soil themselves and panic if there is any mention of significant price drops is also pretty pointless.

pretending that if there was panic about big losses that the government and central bank wouldn't step in as they have time and time again to prop up the system is also pretty pointless.

the end result is a guess, mainly decided by the economic weather in the US and China.

chucknorris

Crashy_Time wrote: »

If anything starts losing 40% of it`s "value" in London there will be panic all the way down the food chain.

You might have a point crashy, but in our case it would be frantic buying (not selling). Despite thinking that at my age, the time to sell is near, if there was an opportunity to buy at 40% off, I just can't see myself resisting. Unless it was crashing due to rent controls being introduced, then fair enough, in those (unlikely) circumstances, I think I would probably bite the bullet and sell.

With the FED likely to start increasing rates, there can't be too many years left of our base rate being at rock bottom. When it goes past 2%, there really isn't any incentive for me to hold property, because shares would be just as profitable, and far less intrusive into my lifestyle. I'm not in property because I have some sort of affinity with it, I just appreciate the profit that it provides.

Electrum

The worrying thing is, they are still adding to the oversupply.

Will all these thousands of half built flats ever get finished if the crash happens early next year?

If they do get finished quickly who the hell will ever want to buy them? Not BTLers thats for sure, and normal working people can not get mortgages until the prices fall a long long way.

buglawton

Um, but I thought high interest rates depress share prices while low interest rates boost them. You'd have to call the moment right, and ditch property/buy your share portfolio before the rate rise. If had such clairvoyant powers I would not have to go to work.

chucknorris

buglawton wrote: »

Um, but I thought high interest rates depress share prices while low interest rates boost them. You'd have to call the moment right, and ditch property/buy your share portfolio before the rate rise. If had such clairvoyant powers I would not have to go to work.

I don't have to get the timing perfect, there isn't any pressure on me to do so, I'm much more focused on income, rather than capital value (rental profits versus potential dividend income). The main factors that I have to take into account is that I am only currently paying about 1% on my mortgages, that skews the analysis towards property, as does the amount of CGT to pay.

I don't have to go work, I go because I like it, in fact on Monday I withdrew my notice take early retirement next September.