HOUSE PRICE CRASH? POLL

Former_MSE_Andrea

Below are the results to this previous poll. Thanks to the 2224 participants who took part in this poll.

Previous Poll Topic: Poll Started 6 October. Will House Prices Crash? What will happen to UK house prices over the next year (to discuss this and for past poll results see Money Saving Polls in the Chat Forum)

e. No Real Change  17.2% - (383 Votes)
d. Increase 2-5%   16.4% - (366 Votes)
f. Decrease 2-5%  15.6% - (347 Votes)
g. Decrease 5-10%  14.3% - (320 Votes)
h. Decrease 10-20% (smaller crash)   10.9% - (244 Votes)
c. Increase 5-10%   9.4% - (210 Votes)
i. Decrease over 20% (crash)  9.1% - (204 Votes)
j. I really have no idea  3.4% - (77 Votes)
b. Increase 10-20%  2.6% - (58 Votes)
a. Increase over 20%   0.6% - (15 Votes)

Total Votes: 2224  

MSE_Martin

https://www.MoneySavingExpert.com
Free To Use, Ad Free, Unbiased

News Release
22 October 2004

Half the country believes house prices will fall over the next year
House prices set to drop by 3.9% next year says the UK public

A new poll of 2,200 users of https://www.moneysavingexpert.com, an independent consumer finance help website, reveals public sentiment has grown increasingly pessimistic over house prices. The survey found those polled predicting house prices would fall by 3.9% during the next twelve months. This is a gloomier outlook than in June of this year, when respondents to an identical poll were expecting a drop of 3.2%.

The findings:

• 50% believe that house prices will begin to fall next year, compared to only 29% who still expect house prices to increase

• In a site poll of July 2003, 56% of respondents correctly believed house prices would rise over the next year

• One in five (20%) expect house prices to crash by more than 10%. In July 2003, 15% predicted a rise of more than 20%

• 17% believe there will be no real change
The moneysavingexpert.com poll is one of the largest ever of the general public on house prices, giving a different perspective from the normal industry opinions of mortgage lenders, estate agents or surveyors.
According to the creator of the site Martin Lewis, the swing in sentiment could be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Martin Lewis, Money Saving Expert, comments:

“The public’s sentiment is very likely to have a material impact on house prices. If they believe house prices will drop, this may well be self-fulfilling. Those who believe in a price plummet are far less likely to enter the housing market at the moment – this will cause a decrease in demand and push down prices. In the past people have seen putting money in bricks and mortar as a ‘safe’ investment, but with confidence wavering people are finally beginning to appreciate that putting money in property involves a real risk.”

How the findings compare to other surveys:

• The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) survey found that in the three months to September house prices fell at their steepest rate since 1995 (https://www.rics.org)

• Figures from Nationwide for September indicated “subdued” growth for the second consecutive month, with house prices rising by just 0.2% (https://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi)

• Halifax found that house prices had risen by 1.4% in September, reversing a fall in August (https://www.hbosplc.com/economy/housingresearch.asp)

uggle

there are houses here in the NE which have reduced on there for sale boards, never seen that for over 3 years, also there are house which after been advertised for about 1 month are now reducing there prices, are buyers hanging on or just not willing to part with there dosh to easily and awaiting a fall, i predict a 10% fall over the next 2 years

elona

I agree with uggie

flydog

I discussed this topic this week with my mother who is part owner of a small Estate Agents chain. She reckons more than 1/2 of the agents regionally use the RightMove portal, and evidence from their stats suggests 5-6% drop over the next year.

Not good news, but not a crash.

alwaysatwork

My own opinion is that the market is constrained by affordability but that fundamentals are strong (good demand, low interest rates, high employment etc).
However people are now constrained by affordability so I think rises will be much lower.

My opinions concur with those of the CEBR below.

I can't claim to KNOW what's going to happen but I do claim to have an opinion after taking an interest in the subject for avout 2 years (I also have a vested interest like everyone else).

http://www.thisismoney.com/20040621/nm79600.html

I agree. I live in Manchester in a 3 bed semi in an ok but not great area. I reckon my house is worth 200,000. I bought it in the 80s for 26,000 as a first time buyer

First time buyers cannot afford to buy my house now so they look in areas such as Moss Side to buys houses. Horrible nasty houses that would have sold for less than £10,000 5 years ago now go for £100,000 because this is the part of the market people can afford to buy in

People such as myself in my early fortys are reluctant to take on a huge mortgage to take that next step up the ladder so I think the more expensive part of the market is slowing down

The market at the lower end will continue to grow. There are areas worse than moss side in manchhester and people who cannot afford to pay £100,000+ to live in the moss are buying these houses now and the house prices in those areas are going up. Once these areas have reached their price limit I think there will be a period of stability across the market until wages have caught up a bit with the cost of housing