House Prices 10 x Earnings Now.

ukcarper

Herzlos wrote: »

What kind of salary would someone who started work at 15 in the 60's expect to get 8 years later? Since they would have no school grades, I'm assuming the only way to get a good job would be an apprenticeship? Or factory work?

These days, I'd expect the average uni graduate (first job at 22) to be earning a fair bit more than the average school leaver (first job at 16), 6 years later. Obviously I'm ignoring saturday jobs and the like.

Very true but average apprenticeship was 5 years so fully qualified by 20/21, I personally left school at 16 did a three year apprenticeship and by the time I was 24 was earning well above average earnings.

Apprenticeship pay in the 60s was very low less than 10x the average wage.

ukcarper

martinsurrey wrote: »

yes, I was just looking for the 1960 stats on this but they're hard to come by, the 1960 8 year worker is equivalent to a 24 year old who left school after GCSE's, I wonder how many 24 year old with only GCSE's are buying houses in 2015?

but I'm not going to labour the point, I cant see UK changing his mind...

Problem is you could get a better job with O levels in the 60s than you can now with GCSEs. Perhaps the new apprenticeships will redress this but I'm no confident that they will compare to my apprenticeship in the 60s.

Conrad

cells wrote: »

there is simply going to be no choice if build rates do not go up substantially.

It surprises me people keep not factoring in the fact any surge in new build will act as an even greater magnetic pull on immigration and so the housing shortage is rendered insolvable.

The whole world is connected to social media and if you see your cousin getting a shiny new home in Britain, quite possibly subsidised with tax credits and housing benefit, you will have a massive motivation to come fill yer boots.


A strict border policy is the only answer and yes it means, shock horror, we will have to ensure our existing unemployed find work and pensions must be planned in the absence on infinite population increase.

wymondham

sorry, nothing interesting to add, just getting a post so I can see if I get a purple circle as well ..... small things an all!!

CLAPTON

Conrad wrote: »

It surprises me people keep not factoring in the fact any surge in new build will act as an even greater magnetic pull on immigration and so the housing shortage is rendered insolvable.

The whole world is connected to social media and if you see your cousin getting a shiny new home in Britain, quite possibly subsidised with tax credits and housing benefit, you will have a massive motivation to come fill yer boots.


A strict border policy is the only answer and yes it means, shock horror, we will have to ensure our existing unemployed find work and pensions must be planned in the absence on infinite population increase.

the quality of life in the UK is certainly an attraction for immigrants.

However, it seems unlikely that the excellence of our housing is a major factor: much more likely is the employment situation and our excellent benefits systems.

we need to build more houses.

cadon

Sibley wrote: »

Thing is. Not actually true. People should cut their cloth like we did. Nothing wrong with one bedroom flat to start off with.

A one-bed flat where I live costs between £215k (dodgy area) and £1.25 million (swanky new build). Realistically you're looking at from £300k for somewhere you'd be happy walking to/from at night.

£300k for a one-bed flat isn't exactly cheap.

Linton

martinsurrey wrote: »

average age of first time buyer in 1960 was 23

average now is 31-35

a 1 bed flat might be fine if you're a 20 year old, but try that with a family in your 30's...

May be, but in 1960:
-Most 23 year olds had been working for 7 or 8 years.
-The average marriage age was around 23 , and the first child was born on average to women aged around 24.
-Very few households only consisted of one person.

Conrad

CLAPTON wrote: »

the quality of life in the UK is certainly an attraction for immigrants.

However, it seems unlikely that the excellence of our housing is a major factor: much more likely is the employment situation and our excellent benefits systems.

we need to build more houses.

'Build it and they will come'.


They sure will.


Point being we will still be calling for ever more housing, roads and infrastructure in 20 years time, what's the end vision?

the_flying_pig

Linton wrote: »

May be, but in 1960:
-Most 23 year olds had been working for 7 or 8 years.
-The average marriage age was around 23 , and the first child was born on average to women aged around 24.
-Very few households only consisted of one person.

peak earning age is c. 38.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/10943604/Workers-reach-26000-earning-peak-at-age-38.html


average first time buying age is c. 37.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/11378375/Help-to-Buy-2-shaves-six-years-off-first-time-buyer-age-of-37.html


draw your own conclusions about the likely future ability of today's FTBs to move up the ladder [cue Sibley - 'it was just the same in my day etc'].

CLAPTON

Conrad wrote: »

'Build it and they will come'.


They sure will.


Point being we will still be calling for ever more housing, roads and infrastructure in 20 years time, what's the end vision?

the point is that most people migrate here because of jobs, benefits, lifestyle, opportunity and not because they see our housing as being desirable

The act of building more homes will not bring proportionately more migrants than were coming anyway.


If the population continues to rise, then yes in 20 years time we will still need more houses, roads and other infrastructure.