Michelin, Gallaghers etc - lots of bad economic news!

joefizz

motorguy wrote: »

Joe, i suspect you havent been around this forum long enough so i'll fill you in

No need Paul, I have been on this forum as long as you, either lurking or with a previous account I forgot the password for. This registered account is 4 years old.

motorguy wrote: »

however they're STILL denying a change in market conditions.

Paul, again you seem to miss a lot of fundamentals, there are always changes in market conditions. When I bought in 95 bidding moved my house up 12% between initial viewing and bid accepted and that was only 2 months. At the time a lot of people were moving home from England after the initial ceasefire and selling up (I was working 3 days a week in London at the time). After the large London bombing house prices dipped again as people sold up and moved back. So my house price had went up 30% in less than 18 months then dipped and then was stagnant for a couple of years, then the boom, then the bust, then the small recent rises which arent really rises as they have kept in line with mortgage rate rises and other costs. The co-ownership deals raise prices, raising of housing benefit raises prices etc etc. The market is always changing, thats the only constant.

motorguy wrote: »

However we stuck it out with renting and turned probably a £10K negative equity situation at its worst point into a £30,000 positive equity situation inside around 5 years, and also selling significantly above RV in 6 weeks and in craigavon which we were told was nigh on impossible by the doom and gloom merchants.

And I think I remember replying to a post of yours at the time saying that you were probably still down after interest payments, fees etc were taken into consideration. Or maybe I typed it out and then didnt bother submitting as it didnt seem worth the hassle to explain.

motorguy wrote: »

The market as you know bottomed out around three years ago,

Actually, no, I dont know. I know there was a trough about three years ago, thats different to bottoming out. I spend a lot of time across the water and in certain places that have been hit hard by the austerity measures the market hasnt risen or has indeed continued to fall. NI has been bailed out with regard to the austerity measures and when they are fully implemented is still to be decided (maybe today?).

motorguy wrote: »

There are of course many valid reasons to rent, however market conditions not being right is NOT one of them and hasnt been for several years

I wouldnt buy now, I would rent if I were starting over again but then again I follow a lot of the different world and uk economic views not just reading the lies, damn lies and statistics that are pumped out by various agencies and media here.
Overall home ownership and prices have some undeniable fundamentals and most are linked to earnings, so the average house price should track average earnings taking a simplistic view. Average earnings are linked to economic factors, inflation/deflation, QE etc etc. More money has been produced in the last 3 years and that has to be factored in to any house price 'rises'.

motorguy wrote: »

Oh, and finally, whilst your house may have cost you money to maintain, its now yours, mortgage free, rent free, and worry free.

Yeah it is but its still the guts of a grand a year for rates, Im redecorating at the minute, and a budget or three away from a property tax (one off to pay for trident or war against ISIS etc). Just look at down south for extra homeowner fees recently. As I mentioned above Im only seeing the benefits after 20 years and in 7 years I will be in a better position than I would have been renting everything else being equal to now. Thats 27 years before better than renting.
Im not countering your argument what works for you works for you or you have convinced yourself what works for you. I bought at the time because I needed to buy over renting and never saw myself in the same house 20 years on but there you go. At the time buying was definitely cheaper than renting even with 5 year lock in fees etc but over the longer term it wasnt.

Mistral001

I am now sorry I mentioned something about the prices of houses in one of my posts about the Michelin factory. Well you live an learn.

joefizz

motorguy wrote: »

Just relative to your maintenance - there are loads of new houses being built that come with 10 warranties, etc, and pretty much all houses now come with double glazing, etc. Boilers every 10 years sounds a bit unlucky and most kitchens, bathrooms and fireplaces are capable of well beyond 10 years use.

We've been in ours 6 years, no big bill maintenance so far and the previous house was around 12 years old when we sold it and again no big bill maintenance.

Paul,
I'll just reiterate again Ive been in my house 20 years, thats 20.
The kitchen I put in was to replace the original almost 20 year old kitchen, mine is in 20 years in January and Im only replacing the worktops and the appliances that I fitted then. Thats still a few grand though.
The bathroom replaced the original and its been going 8 years so yes things do change over 20 years. The insulation standard has changed 3 times since then and yes new houses do have guarantees for 10 years but thats still only half the time. Of course new houses now dont cost 45 grand ;-)
The double glazing is just over 10 years old and needs resealed this year, a decent cost if I wasnt doing it myself.

Its not about the big bill maintenance if you are negative equity or cant afford to do anything or treat your bought house like a rented house and not change a thing. Then you arent comparing like with like and not everyone is buying a brand new house each time.

motorguy

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

As I say, I've shot my bolt by spending my hard earned savings on the farm I've wanted since I was nine, but what impresses me is people's supposed ability to know what happens next. For all we know, there may be another boom or slump round the corner. My guess - either would have to be less extreme than the last pair. They were once a century events. Probably.

You dont have to predict the future -

Ultimately you've bought at the "bottom" of the market, therefore no matter what happens next - we might get a massive rise over the next five years for example then maybe a slump, you've bought at where it bottomed out previously and probably roughly in line with 2005 prices.

The real problem last time was people buying on 100% mortgages at the peak of the market back in 2007.

Buying at the bottom of the market and with a decent LTV, then i see very little risk if any.

motorguy

joefizz wrote: »

its not about the big bill maintenance if you are negative equity or cant afford to do anything

We're talking about people buying NOW, not ten years ago.

Anyone buying now should do so with a decent LTV and are buying at an acknowledged LOW in the market. Therefore the odds of being in negative equity are very very low.

Not by any stretch of the imagination is this a peak market, nor is anyone suggesting a 100% mortgage.

motorguy

joefizz wrote: »

Im not countering your argument what works for you works for you or you have convinced yourself what works for you. I bought at the time because I needed to buy over renting and never saw myself in the same house 20 years on but there you go. At the time buying was definitely cheaper than renting even with 5 year lock in fees etc but over the longer term it wasnt.

However, you OWN the house now - thats an asset with a monetary value. If you'd rented for 27 years you'd have nothing to show for it.

The people who rented out our last house to would love to have bought it, however they were hitting 50, so they could only get a mortgage over 15 years, and hadnt got a significant deposit.

Where will they be in 15 years time when retiring and looking for the rent money each month?

motorguy

joefizz wrote: »

And I think I remember replying to a post of yours at the time saying that you were probably still down after interest payments, fees etc were taken into consideration. Or maybe I typed it out and then didnt bother submitting as it didnt seem worth the hassle to explain.

We would have the interest payments, fees etc (we walked away with £30K clear) anyway, but had we sold when the market dropped we'd have been down £10,000 too.

Our previous house was never an investment, it was our home. Still too many people trying to combine the two - a home and something they can get profit on.

motorguy

Mistral001 wrote: »

I am now sorry I mentioned something about the prices of houses in one of my posts about the Michelin factory. Well you live an learn.

Yes, lets get back to talking ourselves into a hole about something we've no control over.

motorguy

Right, i've made my points.

Leaving it at that.

qwert_yuiop

Anyway, why do you think diesel is cheaper here than the "mainland"? (I hate that term - this is the main land, they're offshore.)

Scoundrels filtering the red stuff in the hills must be providing a downward pressure on prices.