TalkTalk Shares

Sam_J12

masonic wrote: »

Do you think the company is worth more than the current market consensus? If so, what do you know that others don't?

Completely disagree with this comment. The market has been shown, time and time and time again, to get company valuations spectacularly wrong. Dot Com boom anyone? Value investing, which is effectively what the OP is asking about here, has been shown to be one way to beat the market. Looking at companies that have a solid business plan but which are in short term difficulties is one good strategy.

I would advice OP to stay away not because the market is somehow unbeatable (it is clearly not, because as an approximation half of investors beat it, ignoring fees) but because he really needs to know what he is doing and the fact he is asking this question here means he probably doesn't.

Atreyu107

Kendall80 wrote: »

Assuming no stop-loss order is in place.

Depends on the price movement. For example:

You short at £10, with a stop loss at £15.

Basement diamond mine is discovered on Monday evening.

Shares @ market close on Monday: £14.50
Shares @ market open on Tuesday: £100.25

Stop loss triggers - you still lose £90,000.

AndyT678

Atreyu107 wrote: »

Basement diamond mine is discovered on Monday evening.

Could also raise some questions about why they're digging holes in the basement in the middle of the night...

Thrugelmir

WannaBLoaded wrote: »

This is similar, also, to when the rbs systems go down and people are told to vote with their feet to force banks to get better, yet people still do not move in droves.

We are a long way off 100% reliability for technology of any kind. To suggest otherwise is nonsensical. If it were, it would put many people out of work as well.

WannaBLoaded

Atreyu107 wrote: »

Depends on the price movement. For example:

You short at £10, with a stop loss at £15.

Basement diamond mine is discovered on Monday evening.

Shares @ market close on Monday: £14.50
Shares @ market open on Tuesday: £100.25

Stop loss triggers - you still lose £90,000.

I thought when you were short term punting on individual share like talk talk, hoping that they would start to rise after all the fuss has died down, it was best to sell up before the close of the market incase anything bad came out over night?

Is that what day traders do?

I'm pretty glad i never bought talk talk yet, they are down 6% today.

The share price was 258 a few days ago :eek:

I sort of liken this situation to when tesco overestimated their profits and their shares tumbled, but once the fuss had died down they went up massively, although they since returned to the depths and for an investor have been a very un exciting company most of this year.

masonic

Sam_J12 wrote: »

Completely disagree with this comment. The market has been shown, time and time and time again, to get company valuations spectacularly wrong. Dot Com boom anyone? Value investing, which is effectively what the OP is asking about here, has been shown to be one way to beat the market. Looking at companies that have a solid business plan but which are in short term difficulties is one good strategy.

I would advice OP to stay away not because the market is somehow unbeatable (it is clearly not, because as an approximation half of investors beat it, ignoring fees) but because he really needs to know what he is doing and the fact he is asking this question here means he probably doesn't.

The post you are disagreeing with consists of just two questions, both of which are asking about the level of the OP's knowledge of the share in question. No assertion about the market valuation being correct was made, simply that the OP's view was at odds with it, so he ought to have a good reason for thinking this is a good time to buy in.

Your comments on value investing are well taken, however, in #3, the OP compares this situation to the partial rebound of Tesco shares over a quarter (perhaps thinking this could be an opportunity to make a quick buck in a similar fashion). Value principles simply do not apply to such short timescales. Over the next quarter, TalkTalk's share price is going to be driven by newsflow and sentiment, neither of which can be predicted by private investors.

Sam_J12

masonic wrote: »

The post you are disagreeing with consists of just two questions, both of which are asking about the level of the OP's knowledge of the share in question. No assertion about the market valuation being correct was made, simply that the OP's view was at odds with it, so he ought to have a good reason for thinking this is a good time to buy in.

Your comments on value investing are well taken, however, in #3, the OP compares this situation to the partial rebound of Tesco shares over a quarter (perhaps thinking this could be an opportunity to make a quick buck in a similar fashion). Value principles simply do not apply to such short timescales. Over the next quarter, TalkTalk's share price is going to be driven by newsflow and sentiment, neither of which can be predicted by private investors.

The tone of the message you posted was quite clear (and condescending), especially the "what do you know that others don't" part of it. My response was that the market regularly misvalues companies and you don't need to know anything that others don't.

nb73

I'd buy this sort of share, if I thought that talktalk was basically a good company (which actually I don't)

Think of it as courting volatility. Maybe it will go up from here, maybe down. There's a chance of market beating return in there somewhere. Buy small, set a modest target price of maybe +10% or +20%, and sell if and when it got there.

The risk of being in it for the long term is what would stop me here. I don't want to hold Talk Talk long term. Long term, a phone company is toast. Show me a phone company which has been around longer than say, 139 years.

masonic

Sam_J12 wrote: »

The tone of the message you posted was quite clear (and condescending), especially the "what do you know that others don't" part of it. My response was that the market regularly misvalues companies and you don't need to know anything that others don't.

If you are heard a tone when you read my post, then it was the product of your own imagination. The fact that the voice you heard in your head was condescending says more about you than it does about me.

The fact that the market regularly misvalues companies is irrelevant. Over the short term valuation does not dictate price movements. A share is worth whatever someone else is willing to pay you for it at that time. You might see that it is intrinsically undervalued, but until such time as the market begins to agree with you, it won't do you any good. If you expect to profit over the suggested holding period of a quarter, I put it to you that you do need to know something that others don't.

redux

nb73 wrote: »

Long term, a phone company is toast. Show me a phone company which has been around longer than say, 139 years.

https://www.siemens.com/history/en/history/1847_1865_beginnings_and_initial_expansion.htm