London property prices to fall 30%....

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

You mean "everyone man and his dog" will start playing a game of catching the falling knife?

Why now? Why have other crashes happened in the past and in other countries if this is the case? What is it different this time?

I'm looking to upsize and price falls would really quite suit me. If I can find a house I really like and it's 10% cheaper than last month I'd be as happy as Laurence.

If it falls another 10% the following month. C'est la vie.

lisyloo

If it falls another 10% the following month

What if it falls 30% over the cycle, still happy?
If you really would be happy then you're unusual.

Most of the Chinese/Malaysian buyers who've bought on/off plan purely for profit and aren't interested in living there are not going to hold, so there would be a lot of supply.
Most people won't buy and will possibly sell if there were to be a lack of confidence.

Right now I think it's unlikely but we're at the mercy of all sorts of foreign events.

wymondham

BBC says this..

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34676643


Buying in London now might be a mugs game???

wotsthat

lisyloo wrote: »

What if it falls 30% over the cycle, still happy?
If you really would be happy then you're unusual.

Well obviously I'd be wishing I'd waited and got another 30% off so I'd be unhappy about having a defective crystal ball but there's not much I can do about that.

I understand the whole internet can time house purchases these days but my skills are limited in that regard so I tend to buy when I want/ need to and try not to worry about it.

chucknorris

wotsthat wrote: »

Well obviously I'd be wishing I'd waited and got another 30% off so I'd be unhappy about having a defective crystal ball but there's not much I can do about that.

I understand the whole internet can time house purchases these days but my skills are limited in that regard so I tend to buy when I want/ need to and try not to worry about it.

There are probably posters on HPC that could have bought for a lot less than 30% off current prices, but they didn't buy, because they thought that prices might drop by 30% (and all that rent paid in the meantime .... ouch). No wonder they are bitter.

Graham_Devon

wotsthat wrote: »

Well obviously I'd be wishing I'd waited and got another 30% off so I'd be unhappy about having a defective crystal ball but there's not much I can do about that.

I understand the whole internet can time house purchases these days but my skills are limited in that regard so I tend to buy when I want/ need to and try not to worry about it.

You are talking about buying a home, when you need it. And on that point, I agree with you.

Hardly the same as "snapping up investment properties" due to falling prices though.

I realise you must disagree with me at every opportunity that presents, but the context in what was being discussed is fairly important if you are going to jump in and disagree with what someones said.

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

You are talking about buying a home, when you need it. And on that point, I agree with you.

Hardly the same as "snapping up something" due to it's reduced price though.

I realise you must disagree with me, but the context in what was being discussed is fairly important.

I've got my eye on a very particular location and prices are just a bit of a stretch at the moment. If they fell by 10% I'd probably jump in knowing there's a risk (there always is) that prices could fall further because I wouldn't want to take the risk of never being able to afford the area.

My buying decisions are influenced by price. Aren't everyone's?

k12345678

Graham_Devon wrote: »

You mean "everyone man and his dog" will start playing a game of catching the falling knife?

Why now? Why have other crashes happened in the past and in other countries if this is the case? What is it different this time?

No where near enough building, limited building plots (and land banking to a smaller degree), vastly increased population growth and historical prices which do the below mean demand will always be high;

www.fullertreacymoney.com/system/data/images/2015/May/26th/London-house-prices-UK-Department-for-Communities-2015-05-26-chart.png

Also some big players who are being seen to be increasing their position in the market or coming to the market anew have the potential to change things in a big way.

See here;
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&ved=0CDYQFjACahUKEwj7uPHt6-rIAhWHXBQKHRJtABQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ipf.org.uk%2Fasset%2FDEEB2D46-8070-4A23-A126D4F0F4B92A21%2F&usg=AFQjCNENELWMbZ_p7rNWS7OROrYrMN-XkQ&cad=rja

There will be a slowdown, there has to be, but a 30% fall just cant happen IMO.

padington

wymondham wrote: »

BBC says this..

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34676643


Buying in London now might be a mugs game???

Lots of them were forced to move to Manchester and hope to buy back in to the capital.

There is lots of self interest flying about.

Thrugelmir

k12345678 wrote: »

There will be a slowdown, there has to be, but a 30% fall just cant happen IMO.

When a 3 bed terrace house sells for 500,000. Then you know something is wrong.

You can buy 4 similar properties here for the same money.