London property prices to fall 30%....

chucknorris

Generali wrote: »

As the old saying goes, Leave 10% on the table for the next guy.

The problem then is really what do you do with the money if you do sell? After years of ZIRP and QE, most assets are looking somewhere between toppy and stupidly priced (IIRC a third or a quarter of our main bond benchmark index has a negative yield: you are paying the Government to lend them money!).

I'd be pretty wary of buying annuities as I suspect that much more ZIRP and a chunk of the insurance industry is bust.

Setting yourself up as a developer might be a pretty good plan as long as you genuinely add value. I'd be looking outside London probably. Maybe a hell hole that's going to be near but not on Crossrail so could benefit from a halo effect. Every chancer is going to have bought into Crossrail suburbs.

Or you could always invest in a small chain of drying out clinics. I reckon you could drum up a few of us on here!

I just realised something this morning, if I sell my properties after I retire, instead of paying 20% tax (in the 20% tax band) I would only pay 7.5% on dividend income. I had already factored in the 32.5%, instead of 40% (in the higher rate tax band) and the £5k dividend allowance. But because I haven't been a basic rate tax payer for so long, it slipped my mind that when I retire AND sell the properties I would only pay 7.5% income tax on a significant chunk of my dividend income. This is a distinct advantage. I just need to get used to the idea of having so much money in shares.

padington

Generali wrote: »

If you can't afford an oz of gold you can buy half an ounce.

You can't buy half a house in any smart way.

Big difference.

Personally I see Crowdfunding as yet another factor that will play well for property in the next ten years.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bff453da-be7d-11e4-a341-00144feab7de.html#axzz3qpMyLICr

You guys may be right, my nature is to be positive about most things, it's possible I'm failing to see the writing on the wall for UK property because of my own personal bent. However given the pro's and con's list I just can't see anything other than more rises. Once the market see's the fed is aiming for no more than 2% by 2018 max, HPI will just keep going and that's what's going to happen, I think.

I thought it interesting to note that Phil spencer has sold up his
London pile ... to buy a bigger place just outside ...

padington

K

wotsthat wrote: »

No it's not but I bet when you saw all the gold adverts you thought it was evidence that gold was going to keep getting more expensive.

You're thinking the same about London house prices. Maybe you're right this time.

I'm basing my thoughts mainly on the large long term studies that have just about all concluded on steady rises for the next five years

Crashy implied property was hard to sell right now, simply Suggesting evidence that such a statement, in London right now, is laughable.

Take your point too though, things can change very quickly. Personally I see more chance that being on the upside more than the downside though for the next five years.

cells

There really needs to be a London focused residential REIT (and a rUK one) geared in a similar way to 75% LTV mortgage BTLs (or maybe 70% LTV)

Surely a big company with 100,000 properties worth £50B run by a dedicated group would be more efficient and professional than 40,000 BTL landlords with 2.5 BTLs each. They could also bypass banks altogether and issue their own paper

If they existed I think a lot of landlords and future landlords would opt for that structure to invest in residential Property (especially if it can be put inside an isa)

London is meant to be the capital if capital yet it doesn't even have aa residential REIT for its own back yard

wotsthat

cells wrote: »

There really needs to be a London focused residential REIT (and a rUK one) geared in a similar way to 75% LTV mortgage BTLs (or maybe 70% LTV)

Surely a big company with 100,000 properties worth £50B run by a dedicated group would be more efficient and professional than 40,000 BTL landlords with 2.5 BTLs each. They could also bypass banks altogether and issue their own paper

If they existed I think a lot of landlords and future landlords would opt for that structure to invest in residential Property (especially if it can be put inside an isa)

London is meant to be the capital if capital yet it doesn't even have aa residential REIT for its own back yard

It's currently expensive to buy yield (especially in London) and comes with some risk. House prices in the UK go up and down and have currently hit another record high.

Surely the only people now starting in BTL in London are wealthy enough that a London house adds diversification, are wealthy enough not to care or have bought into the idea that London prices can never fall.

At least if you buy a house to live in and prices crash it continues to provide a utility value.